看似已经“回暖”的楼市，在推动上半年成交量上升的刚性需求得到部分释放后，更多的改善型需求人群由于缺乏政策支持、又迫于房价压力，很难推动成交量再次上涨。

Seemingly has“warmed”In the housing market，In the first half of the rise in promoting volume rigid needs to get part after release，More improve people due to a lack of demand of policy support、And house prices are under pressure，It is difficult to promote volume rising again。

　　7月，是地产市场的传统淡季，尤其是在史上最严厉的楼市调控一年之后。然而，延续着上半年成交渐渐复苏的势头，今年7月杭州楼市回暖走势不减。于是，有急急推盘者，有匆匆下单者，有追涨不追跌者，更有无可奈何者。有人惊呼，错过了月亮，又错过了星星，错失了抄底良机。有人翘首企盼，楼市进一步探底。有关楼市的走向判断，众说纷纭。引用赵本山的话，“有点乱”。

July，The real estate market is the traditional slack，Especially in the history of the most severe market regulation after a year。however，Continue to clinch a deal in the first half of the momentum gradually recovery，July hangzhou market warms up trends don't reduce。so，A nasty push the dish，The order is in a hurry，Don't chase the chase after go up a fall，More the helpless。Someone exclaimed，Missed the moon，And miss the stars，Missed the opportunity to copy。Someone realised，The market further exploration。About the housing market to judgment，twittering。Quoted zhao4 ben3 shan words，“In a bit of a mess”。

　　在新房价格微涨的背景下，目前房地产市场信息比较混乱，市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化，人们普遍担心房价反弹。杭州楼市何去何从，成为人人关心的话题。

In the new house prices under the background of closed up，Real estate market at present information chaos，The market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes，People generally worry about house prices rebound。Hangzhou where property market，As everyone about the topic of。

　　那么，拨开重重迷雾，把脉杭城楼市，其当下真实的状况如何呢？

so，Through heavy fog，City property market pulse，Then the real situation how？

“走”为上策的开发商 “go”The developer of the is the best policy

　　比较之下，杭州楼市回暖，是不争的事实。明证是，成交量年初以来逐月上升。这引起了购房者的担心，也刺激了一些开发商的信心，出现了个别楼盘调价的现象。有营销副总告诉记者，其国内销售优惠折扣开始回收。

Compared to，Hangzhou market warms up，Is the fact that does not dispute。Proof is，Since the beginning of the volume up from month to month。This caused the home buyers worry，Also stimulated some developers of faith，The individual building dish appear there phenomenon。Have marketing vice President told reporters，Its domestic sales discount started recycling。

　　不过，调查显示，少有真正大涨的楼盘，倒是优惠广告频频。青山湖某排屋项目，一个月前售楼小姐开口便是65折，现在依旧还是这个折扣。

but，survey，Few real estate surged，Advertising is preferential frequently。A row house heqing project，A month before opening miss sales is 65 fold，There is still or the discount。

　　其实，只要冷静地观察，宏观调控的政策环境并没有丝毫放松；此番成交量回升，更多的是开发商以价换量的必然结果。去年底，自下沙掀起的降价风潮，席卷九堡、城东，直到桥西，乃至其他板块。在价格下调的刺激下，成交量随之爬升。回顾这批楼盘，无不因降价促进成交，且立竿见影。

In fact，As long as calm to observe，Macroeconomic regulation and control policy environment and not the slightest relax；The "volume to bounce back，More is development business with the inevitable result of the price in quantity。end，The price of a xiasha agitation，Across nine fort、East of the，Southwest to，And even other plate。In the cut the price of stimulating，Volume then to climb。Review of the estate，All price clinch a deal for promotion，And immediate。

　　因此，成交量上升，没必要放大成市场“回暖”。

so，Volume up，Not necessary enlarged market“warmed”。

　　即便在目前回暖呼声日高的背景下，杭城开发商多数也持谨慎的乐观。从上周一批新盘开价，可窥蛛丝马迹。

Even in the present day high voice warmed the background，Most also have enjoyed a developers are cautiously optimistic。Last week a group from XinPan offer，What can trace。

　　上周杭城9个楼盘开盘，分别为丁桥的中豪·四季公馆、桥西的城市风景、闲林的东海·闲湖城和西溪山庄、老余杭的泊悦府、大华·海派风范和金都·西花庭、塘栖的栖水珑庭，以及西溪的华盛达堂巢。

Hangzhou last week nine building opening，DingQiao respectively of the group · four seasons residence、The southwest city scenery、Idle in the east China sea Lin · idle lake city xixi and villa、The old yuhang tabor yue mansion、Dahua · Shanghai style and gold capital · west spend court、Tangxi habitat of exquisite water division，And the huasheng of xixi hall nest。

　　乐居网的潜雄斌一直追踪杭州房价动态。他说，除了城市风景，其他楼盘价格没有什么变化。其中城西某楼盘去年9月首次开盘，推出1、3、4号楼房源，均价9500元/平方米，此次团购价相比去年下降近2000元/平方米。

Music JuWang dive the male bin has been tracking hangzhou house prices dynamic。He said，In addition to urban landscapes，Other estate prices didn't change。West of a building last September opened for the first time，Launched 1、3、4 buildings source，Average 9500 yuan/square metre，The group last year around nearly 2000 yuan/square metre decline。

　　华丰板块的桦枫居本周开盘，均价12000元/平方米左右。“去年最高的时候是每平方米16000元左右。”

Huafeng plate in the opening this week yu maple，Average price is 12000 yuan/m2。“Last year, the highest is every square metre 16000 yuan。”

　　据潜雄斌观察：“6月份开始，降价的项目明显比3、4、5月份少，但目前涨的还是少数，涨的项目基本都是之前"过跌"的项目。应该说杭州楼市局部有所回暖。现在开发商都在维持现状，一定范围内小幅波动而已。”

According to the observation dive bin：“In June began to，The project price obviously better than 3、4、Less in May，But at present the rise or minority，The project is basic it is up before"A fall"project。Should say hangzhou property market has local warmed。Now all the status quo in the developers，A certain range small-scope fluctuation just。”

背后的隐忧 Behind the potential

　　多数开发商“走”为上策，背后的隐忧昭然若揭。

Most developers“go”Is the best policy，The potential behind was created。

　　从下半年楼市供应看，激烈程度较上半年有过之而无不及。截至6月30日，杭州主城区住宅存量房24267套，略低于2011年年底的库存量，但下半年面临更大的新增供应压力。根据合创地产机构2012年初出刊的《住宅供应白皮书》统计(数据统计时间起止为2004年1月1日-2011年12月31日)：2012年新增房源供应量巨大。2012年杭州主城区住宅供应预计新增供应达到430万平方米，将是供应量密集的一年；若以平均每套120平方米计，预计住宅可供应套数约35800多套(2012年上半年新上市房源面积平均114平方米/套)，是2012年上半年销售量的2倍，预计2012年的楼市供应将饱和。除去上半年已经上市的158.9万平方米，预计2012年下半年新上市房源将达到250万平方米以上，下半年的竞争压力将明显高于上半年。因此，预计2012年下半年楼市仍将保持供应量大、竞争激烈的发展态势，在限购限贷政策继续执行的情况下，楼市下行的基本发展态势不会改变。

Since the second half of the property market supply look，Fierce degree is greater than in the first half。By June 30,，Hangzhou city housing stock room 24267 sets，Slightly lower than at the end of 2011 inventories，But the second half of the new supply face greater pressure。According to close and real estate agencies in early 2012 of publication《The white paper housing supply》statistics(Statistics: time for January 1, 2004-December 31, 2011)：In 2012, expand the huge new supply。In 2012, hangzhou city housing supply the new supply is expected to reach 4.3 million square meters，Will be a year of intensive supply；If the average each 120 square meters plan，Housing can supply a cycle is expected to about more than 35800 sets(In the first half of 2012 new homes listed on average 114 square meters area/sets)，In the first half of 2012 is 2 times of sales，2012 years of property market is expected to supply will be saturated。Remove the 1.589 million square meters in the first half were listed，Expected in the second half of 2012 new homes listed above will reach 2.5 million square meters，In the second half of the year competition pressure will be significantly higher than the first half of the year。so，In the second half of 2012 property market is expected to supply will remain、The fierce competition in the development situation，In 限购 limit credit policy to continue，The basic development trend downward property market will not change。

　　而昨天有网民tiefliu报料：杭州房管局预售公告13日将有25万多平方米的房子上市，按每套100平方米计算，一天将有2500多套房源上市，开创杭州有史以来的纪录。开发商们在当今涨价的行情下，为什么不捂盘了？说明开发商都看跌了。

And yesterday tiefliu netizens attempting：Hangzhou opens to booking a room canal announcement 13, there will be more than 250000 square meters of the house on the market，According to each computation of 100 square metre，One day there will be more than 2500 sets of homes on the market，In hangzhou for the record。Developers in today's market prices，Why not cover plate？Put all that developers。

　　采访中，专业人士分析指出，供应量的加大必然促使竞争加剧。而开发商面对政策从紧下的楼市供过于求，一般会采取两种措施：一采取保守策略，推迟开盘或减量开盘，准现房或现房销售的模式可能出现；二延续降价行为，经过上半年大幅降价而形成成交量上扬的实战经验显示，降价成为撬动成交量的直接原因，因此对于部分资金偏紧的开发商而言，降价不失为一种识时务的办法，因此继续降价也会成为部分开发商的选择。但在成交量已经回升、购房者积极性上升的情况下，降价行为会明显收敛。

interview，Professional personage analysis points out，Supply will inevitably promote the increasing competition。But developers face tighter policy of the property market demand，General will take two measures：Take a conservative strategy，Delayed opening dose or open quotation，Must show a house or a house sales model may appear；2 continue depreciate behavior，In the first half after cuts and the formation of a volume of actual combat experience shows up，Price cut become move the direct reason for volume，So for some money tight of developers，Price cut is a clever way，Therefore continue to depreciate also can become part of the developers choice。But in volume has come back、The person that buy a house rising enthusiasm，Price cut behavior will be clearly convergence。

　　由此可知，下半年楼市将会延续上半年的大供应、欲降价的态势，但降幅会有所收敛，“走量”依然会是主旋律。这从近两周开盘的定价策略可窥端倪。上周开盘的9个楼盘中，除了个盘大幅低开或降价的楼盘售价略有上涨外，其他楼盘依然采取低价快走的策略，如栖水珑庭、西花庭等郊区楼盘。可以看出，为了“走量”而采取的小幅降价或低开，依然会是下半年的态势之一。

Know therefore，The second half of property market will last for the first half of the big supply、Price to the situation，But drop will have convergence，“Walk quantity”Will still be the main note。From this nearly two ZhouKaiPan pricing strategy can peep grandeur。Last week the opening of the nine in the building，In addition to a disk drive or a low price by building up the price a little，Other buildings still take low price strategy to go faster，Such as the habitat of exquisite water court、The flowers such as building court suburbs。Can see，In order to“Walk quantity”But adopt of a modest prices or low drive，In the second half of the year is still one of the situation。

调控下的选择 Under the control of the choice

　　对楼市回暖更深层次的忧虑，来自市场置业结构的精准分析。

About the housing warmed a deeper level of anxiety，From the structure of the real estate market precision analysis。

　　限购政策之下，目前市场买家基本上是“刚需”。无论是业内专家，还是开发商，都有一个共识：限购政策不放松，刚需日渐消耗。

限购 under the policy，At present the market buyers are basically“Just need to”。Whether industry experts，Or developers，There is a consensus：限购 policy not to relax，Just need to increasingly consumption。

　　一位从业多年的地产界人士告诉记者，今年楼市回暖，主要是由“刚需”入市造成的；但是，这一波“刚需”过去，市场缺乏后续的买家支持，行情堪忧。出于这方面考虑，现在不少项目“走”为上策。

A person of property industry for many years, told reporters，Market warms up this year，Mainly by“Just need to”Caused by the entry；but，The wave of“Just need to”In the past，Lack of subsequent buyers market support，Bullish market。Because this into consideration，Now many projects“go”Is the best policy。

　　而近日高层释放的信息，更强化了一些地产商调整思路的决心。

And recently released information of high，More strengthened the some developers to adjust the thought。

　　“国务院总理温家宝7日在江苏省常州市调研时强调，目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨。必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。”“进一步做好调控工作，要把握好以下几个方面：一要继续坚决抑制投机投资性需求，防止变相放松购房政策，防止不实信息炒作误导。要把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。继续严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和住房限购措施。加强市场监管，对涉及违规骗取购房资格的开发企业、中介机构和个人，要严肃查处。对有地方出台或变相放松房地产市场调控政策的，要有针对性地及时制止纠正。同时，抓紧研究推进房地产税收制度改革，加快建立健全房地产市场调控的长效机制和政策体系。要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归，决不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。二要采取有效措施，积极引导和支持房地产企业调整产品结构，增加普通商品房供给，满足合理的自住性需求。三要继续稳步推进保障性安居工程建设，尽快形成有效供给。”

“The state council premier wen jiabao 7, changzhou, jiangsu province stressed in the investigation，Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。”“Work well further regulation，Should grasp the following respects：A speculative investment firm will continue to restrain demand，Prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，To prevent false information hype misleading。The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。Continue to strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and housing 限购 measures。To strengthen the market supervision，To defraud the irregular purchase qualified development enterprises、Intermediary institutions and individuals，We will strictly investigate and prosecute。To have a place to come on stage or in disguised form relax the real estate market adjustment and control policies，To have targeted and timely stop correct。At the same time，We will promote real estate tax system reform，Speed up and improve the regulation of the real estate market mechanism and policy system。Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices，Never let the house prices rebound，Cause failed。Second, we need to take effective measures，Actively guide and support real estate enterprise adjustment of product structure，Add a normal commercial housing supply，Meet the reasonable self living sexual needs。Third, we will continue to advance steadily supportability live project construction，As soon as a effective supply。”

　　态度如此明确，措施表述如此清晰，实属少见。杭州地产界一位不愿透露姓名的人士如是说。从新华社的上述报道不难看出，高层一直密切关注房地产市场，了然于心，有的放矢，尽显调控决心。

Attitude so clear，Measures so clear expression，Is rare。Hangzhou property a don't wish to be named, said people。The xinhua news agency reports from the above it is easy to see，Executives have been paying close attention to the real estate market，Going on in the heart，targeted，All show control determination。

　　所以，从下半年的楼市环境看，新政的作用力已经基本显现，但政策对于限购限贷政策的强调，说明影响力尚在，楼市下行发展的大环境尚未改变，因此，下行发展依然是主旋律。

so，From the second half of the property market environment look，The power of the New Deal has basically been revealed，But policy for 限购 limit credit policy emphasis，That is in influence，Market development environment has not changed downlink，so，Downside development is still the main melody。