中新社北京8月7日电 题：楼市回暖真相还是幻象？

Arriving on August 7, Beijing problem：Property market warms up the truth or illusion？

　　作者 庞无忌

The author ponti mowgli

　　一边是中央政府不断释放坚持楼市调控不放松的信号；另一边是楼市成交量持续上涨，逐渐出现量价齐升的趋势。在“稳增长”、“控房价”这两个看似对立的任务“夹击”下，中国楼市的走向扑朔迷离。

On one side is the central government are constantly released to market regulation not relax signal；The other side is property market turnover continuing to rise，Quantity and price of JiSheng gradually appeared the tendency。in“Steady growth”、“Accused of house prices”These two seemingly opposite to the task“flanked”under，China property market to the lottery。

　　北京大学房地产研究所所长陈国强7日接受中新社记者采访时表示，中国楼市发展仍面临许多不确定性，能否真正回暖，尚待进一步观察。

Beijing university of institute of real estate Chen guoqiang 7 accept arriving reporter to interview said，China property market development are still faced with many uncertainties，Can truly warmed，Remains to be seen。

　　中国楼市博弈近来不断升级。尽管中央政府三令五申坚定执行楼市调控政策，但在“稳增长”和地方“土地财政”的双重影响下，今年迄今已曝出有近50个城市通过提高公积金贷款额度、提供购房补贴、调整限购条件等方式“松绑”楼市。最新的一个例子是，宁波市从8月起将个人住房公积金最高贷款额度由每户60万元人民币调整为80万元。

China property market a game recently escalated。Although the central government SanLingWuShen firm market regulation policy execution，But in“Steady growth”And local“Land financial”Under the influence of the double，So far this year already to expose some 50 cities by improving the accumulation fund loan amount、Provide purchase subsidies、Adjust 限购 conditions way“easing”Property market。The latest example of is，Ningbo from August date will be the highest individual housing accumulation fund loans by every 600000 yuan RMB adjustment for 800000 yuan。

　　除一些城市“微调”政策由于触及调控红线被紧急叫停，包括成都、重庆在内的40多个城市“微调”政策均得以通过，“史上最严限购令”似乎正在松动。

In addition to some city“fine-tuning”Policy because the red line is an emergency stop touch control，Including chengdu、Chongqing, more than 40 cities“fine-tuning”Policies are to pass through，“History's most severe 限购 make”Seems to be loose。

　　市场对此作出了积极回应。央行发布的今年第二季度货币政策执行报告称，今年上半年，楼市交易量呈“前低后高”走势，“房地产贷款增速止降趋稳”。

The market to make positive response。By the second quarter of this year the central bank monetary policy implementation report said，In the first half of this year，Property market volume is“Low before high”trend，“Real estate loan growth ZhiJiang stabilised”。

　　7月原本是房地产的淡季，但今年7月却淡季不淡。有机构统计，7月份全国100个典型城市新建住宅平均价格环比6月上涨0.33%，环比上涨的城市增加到70个。

July is the original real estate off-season，But this year July but not light off-season。Statistics have institutions，In July, the national 100 typical cities new residence average price annulus comparing June rose 0.33%，The rise of the annulus city increased to 70。

　　以经营二手房业务为主的链家地产经纪人李宏峰告诉中新社记者，他在今年3月以来就明显感觉到市场的好转，“最火的是6月份，有许多人连房都不看就直接成交。”

With operating business mainly home secondhand chain real estate broker LiHongFeng told reporters arriving，In march this year he has obviously feel better the market，“The fire is 6 months，There are many people even room before they direct clinch a deal。”

　　为巩固调控成果，中央在7月底派出8个督察组赴16个省市，对房地产市场调控政策措施落实情况开展专项督查。从媒体的报道来看，督察组目前已对包括北京、上海、成都、辽宁等多个地区执行和落实楼市调控政策的成效进行了肯定。

To consolidate control results，The central in the end of July, a DuChaZu sent 8 to 16 provinces and cities，On the real estate market regulation implement policies and measures to carry out special superintendent himself。From media reports and see，DuChaZu at present has to include Beijing、Shanghai、chengdu、Liaoning, and other districts implement and carry out the property market adjustment and control policies results the affirmation。

　　一边是督察组的肯定，一边是房地产成交量和价格的持续上涨。对此，陈国强认为督察组最终会作出什么样的报告，以及报告会不会引发中央新一轮的“紧缩”政策还有待观察。

On one side is the affirmation of the DuChaZu，On one side is the real estate volume and prices continue to rise。this，DuChaZu will eventually make that Chen guoqiang what kind of report，And the report will not cause a new round of“tightening”Policy remains to be seen。

　　陈国强分析，从市场供求方面来看，多数城市的房地产市场仍然处于供大于求的阶段。在此情况下，房企的经营策略和价格策略会不会有所改变还很难说。

Chen guoqiang analysis，From the market supply and demand and see，Most of the city's real estate market is still supply stage。In this case，Room of the enterprise business strategy and price strategy will not change is hard to say。

　　他指出，最近房地产市场的回暖和成交量放大，并不能从根本上解决房企“债台高筑”的状况，开发商的资金压力依然存在。而此前有媒体报道多个地产巨头频频拿地，在陈国强看来，也不能成为判断市场走暖的依据。

He pointed out that，Recently the real estate market of buoyancy and volume to increase，And can't fundamentally solve room enterprises“debt”situation，Developers financial pressure still exists。And there have been media reports more real estate mogul frequently to take，Chen guoqiang seems in，He can't be a judgment based on the market is going to warm。

　　中国社会科学院财经战略研究院在近期发布的一份报告中提醒，由于目前房地产走势主要通过行政高压手段而非市场机制实现，下半年住房市场可能面临“报复性反弹导致调控功亏一篑”、“资金断裂积聚房地产金融风险”等诸多不确定性。

The Chinese academy of social sciences in the recent financial strategy research institute released a report remind，Because the present estate trends through administrative high-handed and main non-market mechanism realized，The second half of the housing market may face“Retaliatory rebound lead to control the lip”、“Capital accumulation fracture financial risks in the real estate”And so on many uncertainties。

　　报告同时指出，若下半年政策得当，住房市场调整仍有望趋向价格缓慢下降的“软着陆”，并在此基础上实现健康发展。“但如果政策有力但不十分有力，基于各方博弈，下半年也存在价格温和回升，成交量继续增加的可能性。”

The report also points out that，If the second half policy is properly，The housing market adjustment are still expected to slow down the price of the trend“Soft landing”，And on this basis to achieve a healthy development。“But if policy powerful but not quite powerful，Based on the game all parties，There are also the second half price moderate to bounce back，Volume continue to increase the likelihood of。”

　　“看不清”的楼市让一些准备出手的购房者重新转向观望。李宏峰说，7月的销售情况虽然比年初转好，但他开始感觉到“成交周期变长，速度变慢”。

“Can't see”In the housing market let some ready to move to the person that buy a house to turn to see。LiHongFeng said，July's sales although than at the turn，But he began to feel it“Clinch a deal longer cycle，slow”。