鲁桂华

LuGuiHua

　　在温总理及中央政府有关部委反复强调坚持楼市调控政策不放松的背景下，7月10日，北京海淀万柳一块面积3.9万平方米的土地，“经过46轮竞价和326轮回购面积的竞拍”，以26.3亿元的价格被中赫集团名下的子公司中赫置地拍得。有人做过测算，扣除海淀区政府回购的面积之后，“这一地块可售商品房楼面地价目前约为4.29万元/平方米，创北京新的楼面单价新高，由此摘下北京今年的"双料地王"”。

In the premier wen and the central government related ministries to repeatedly said that the housing market regulation under the background of policy not to relax，July 10,，Beijing haidian wanliu a area of 39000 square meters land，“After 46 round and 326 rounds of bidding repurchase of the bid”，With 2.63 billion yuan price is a subsidiary of the name of Hector group of Hector holdings on。Somebody has done a measure，The area of the buyback deduct haidian district government after，“The plot can sell commodity house floor price now about for 42900 yuan/square metre，And Beijing new floor price high，This took off this year's Beijing"Double star"”。

　　新地王的产生对于房地产市场到底意味着什么？对于赢得这一地块的中赫置业又可能意味着什么？对于海淀区政府又意味着什么？诸如此类，颇值得玩味。

The generation of new star for the real estate market exactly mean??????？To win this plot in real estate and the hittites could mean??????？Haidian district government for what does that mean？such，Quite worth pondering。

　　我们不妨首先分析中标对于赢家可能意味着什么。

We might as well the first analysis for the winner may mean??????。

　　西方有一个谚语：“赢家的诅咒(Winner"s curse)”，这也是本文以此为题的原因。赢家诅咒的大意是这样的：在竞标过程中，每一竞标者，都是根据自己对被拍卖的物品，即拍卖的标的物的估价出价的。显然，标的物的真实价值是观察不到的，这就是经常所说的信息不对称。也正因为信息的不对称，所有参加竞标的人既有可能高估标的物价值，也有可能低估标的物的价值。不论有多少人会高估，有多少人会低估，赢家一定是出价最高、估价最高者，因而赢家高估标的物价值的可能性最大。而做投资，如果支付的价格过高，就意味着投资的回报会过低，这就是所谓的赢家诅咒。

The west has a proverb：“Winners the curse of the(winner"S curse)”，This is the cause of this text as issues。winners of the effect is such a curse：In the bid process，Each bidders，According to their to items on sale，That is the subject matter of the appraisal of the auction bid。obviously，The real value of the subject matter is cannot watch，This is often said information asymmetry。It is because of the information asymmetry，To all the people may overestimate bid as the value of the subject matter，May underestimate the value of the subject matter。No matter how many people will be overvalued，How many people will be underestimated，winners must be the highest bidder、Appraisal expect，And the value of the subject matter is overvalued winners most likely。And do investment，If the price paid too high，Means that investment returns will be too low，This is known as the winner of the curse。

　　既然赢家高估标的物价值的可能性最高，那么赢得地王，未必是一件好事儿。“大龙地产(600159,股吧)，50.5亿拿下了北京中央别墅区的天竺地块后，爆得大名，但因为迟迟未交地价款而被罚，公司股价也过山车了一番，其最终命运是被迫退地”。“最悲壮的呢？莫过于在苏州、无锡拿过地王的绿城，而今到了卖地卖股权的境地”。

Since the possibility of the value of the subject matter winner overestimate the highest，So you won，Is not necessarily a good thing。“Dragon real estate(600159,Shares it)，5.05 billion win Beijing central villa after the tianzhu plot，Blasting a name，But because didn't pay cost and be fined，The stock price also had a roller coaster，Its ultimate fate is forced to retire”。“The most tragically heroic?？In suzhou way、Wuxi took the royal green city，Now to sell equity from the position”。

　　我想，中赫置业之所以敢报出如此高的价格，最基本的动因，可能是对开发出来的商品房的售价的预计。中赫置业预计的销售价位，我们自然无从得知。但我们可以根据一些公开数据，对此做一些估计。“万柳区域目前已是比较成熟的高档社区集中区域……区域内二手房均价已经接近6万元……万城华府等项目售价已经超过8万元”。根据这些事实，有人估计中赫置业万柳项目的定价将不低于10万元/平方米。

I want to，In the home buyers to quote us so hittites high price，The most basic reason，It may be to development of the selling price of the commodity house out expected。In the sales price is expected to homeownership Hector，Naturally we don't know。But we can according to some public data，Do some estimates。“There is now more mature areas of high-grade community area...Area has close to 60000 yuan secondhand the room price...Project such as price of wancheng Washington has more than 80000 yuan”。According to the facts，By one estimate of real estate project pricing hittites there will be no less than 100000 yuan/square metre。

　　如果售价达到10万元/平方米，那么一套100平方米的公寓的价格将达到1000万元。要知道，根据我国现行的制度，我们最多拥有住房70年。这就意味着，我国的房价相当于一次性支付了未来70年的租金。1000万元的房款，拥有或租入70年，相当于每年支付的租金为1000万÷70，相当于每年的租金为14.29万元，每月的租金1.2万元！你愿意每月花1.2万元、每年花14.29万元租一套100平方米的“高档公寓”？

If the price reached 100000 yuan/square metre，So a set of 100 square meters of apartment prices will reach 10 million yuan。Want to know，According to the existing system of our country，The best we have housing in 70。This means that，Our house prices is equivalent to the one-time pay the rent for the next 70 years。10 million yuan house money，Have the rented or 70 years，The rent is equivalent to pay each year 10 million ÷ 70，The rent is equivalent to $142900 a year，The monthly rent of 12000 yuan！Would you like to spend 12000 yuan a month、Spend 142900 yuan rent a set of 100 square meters“Luxury apartment”？

　　其实上面的这种算法是有问题的，我们付出1000万元一次性支付未来70年的租金，我们把钱存在银行还有利息呢，损失掉的利息，是不是相当于租金？如果考虑一次性支付1000万元损失掉的利息或投资收益，一次性支付未来70年的租金，相当于月租金8.3万元 ！

In fact it is a problem of this algorithm，We pay 10 million yuan paid the rent for the next 70 years，We put the money in the bank and interest，Lost interest，Is equivalent to rent？If consider one-time pay 10 million yuan lost interest or investment income，One-time pay the rent for the next 70 years，The monthly rent is equivalent to 83000 yuan ！

　　你愿意在未来70年间每月支付8.3万元的月租或一次性支付1000万元的租金租一套100平方米的住房70年？

Would you like to pay in the next 70 years of $83000 a month rent or one-time pay 10 million yuan rent a set of 100 square meters of housing in 70？

　　显然，我不会。或许有人会，那这人一定是有钱人，并且是倍儿有面子、有身价的人。简言之，即使10万元/平方米或1000万元/套的价格是可能的。但并不是所有的人都会在这一价位买得起。换句话说，中赫置业的万柳项目，不是为我们盖的，而是为有钱人盖的。或者说，中赫置业的万柳项目，只是针对有钱人这一细分市场，而不是针对整个市场。理解这一点之后，我松了一口气，看来，我们并不需要紧张，奢侈品涨价，并不意味着必需品会涨价。有钱人吃牛排，而我们吃大米。中赫置业提供的是牛排不是大米，牛排再贵，干我何事？

obviously，I won't。Maybe someone will，The man must be a rich man，And is times son have a face、A value of people。In short，Even if 100000 yuan/square metre 10 million or yuan/set price is possible。But not everyone will be in this price affordable。In other words，The real estate project in Hector there，Not for we cover，But for the rich of the cover。or，The real estate project in Hector there，Only for the rich this market segment，And not for the whole market。Understand this point，I breathed a sigh of relief，look，We do not need to be nervous，Luxury prices，Doesn't mean that prices will necessities。Rich people eat steak，And we eat rice。The offer is real estate Hector steak is not the rice，Steak to your，Stem I what？

　　因此，看到地王，普通人并不需要紧张，楼市不会因为一个地王就急转直上的。

so，See you，Ordinary people don't need nervous，Property market will not because of a king is a sudden turn。

　　地王对地方政府又意味着什么？

The local government and you mean？

　　我们可以看两个事实，其一，“根据官方数据，今年上半年北京市土地出让金仅为144.8亿元，同比下降55.7%。因此，在楼市已现回暖之时，顺势托热土地市场也成为政府部门的"最佳选择"”。其二，“海淀区政府表示，拟通过此次万柳地区居住用地的上市交易来弥补六郎庄重点村搬迁整治的资金缺口” 。

We can see two facts，one，“According to official data，In the first half of this year the land grant fee is 14.48 billion yuan only，55.7% year-on-year drop。so，In the property market has now warms up，"Land market with hot also become the government department"Best choice"”。The second，“Haidian district government said，Proposed by the wanliu region of the listing of the habitable land to make up for six LangZhuang ChongDianCun move the funding gap” 。

　　我终于理解了，在中央政府一声紧似一声的不放松调控的表态之后，为什么楼市呈现出回暖的迹象？如果楼市不回暖，地方政府的财政收入得不到保证，地方政府计划的或承诺的许多支出项目也成了“无米之炊”。原来回暖迹象，系地方政府一手导演。如果泡沫总要破灭，回暖是不是意味着推迟这一泡沫的破灭？如果是，那将是饮鸩止渴。

I finally understand......，In the central government with a tight like a sound not relax regulation after the comment，Why property market present a thaw signs？If the property market don't thaw，The local government revenue not guarantee，The local government plans many of the spending projects or commitment also became“Bricks without straw”。The original signs warmed，Local government is a director。If the total to burst the bubble，Thaw mean that postpone the a bust？If it is，That will be the remedy is worse than the。

　　（作者为中央财经大学教授）

（The author for central university of finance and economics professor）