据新华社博鳌（海南）8月11日电

According to the xinhua news agency boao（hainan）On August 11,

　　当前一些地方房价升温，楼市再次走到十字路口：中介机构鼓唇摇舌，普通居民望房兴叹，开发企业望风使舵，金融企业上下其手，中央政府态度坚定，地方政府试探频频。

The current some local prices warming，The property market once again came to a crossroad：Intermediaries drum lip tongue，Ordinary residents hope this room，Keep the development enterprise make rudder，The financial enterprise act in collusion with，The central government a firm attitude，The local government test again and again。

　　在这敏感时期，全国房地产界的千人大会博鳌房地产论坛8日至11日在此间举行。来自住建部、中国房地产协会和国内知名房企的代表人物，围绕房价走势、调控走向、制度改革等一系列焦点问题，进行了激烈交锋，不少观点引人深思。

In this sensitive period，The national real estate industry one thousand people meeting boao real estate BBS 8 to 11, held in here。Live JianBu from、China real estate association and the well-known domestic room is the representative figure of enterprises，Around the house price trend、Regulation to、System reform and a series of focus，The intense battle，Many view food for thought。

　　新一轮房价上涨周期打开？

A new round of rising house prices cycle open？

　　［焦点］ 今年初，房地产界还在讨论“如何过冬”和“冬天多长”，想不到楼市连续出现 “热六月”“火七月”等旺销现象，新一轮房价上涨周期真的已经来临？

Earlier this year [focus]，Real estate boundary is still under discussion“How to spend the winter”and“How long the winter”，Unexpected market continuous appear “Hot June”“Fire July”Nokias phenomenon such as，A new round of rising house prices cycle really has come？

　　［财政部财政科学研究所所长贾康］ 我感觉已经看得比较清楚：今年下半年在银根放松和“稳增长”的政策环境之下，房地产的回暖还会持续。

[the ministry of finance director of the institute of fiscal science jia kang] I feel they have to see more clearly：In the second half of this year and monetary easing“Steady growth”Under the policy environment，Real estate milder is likely to continue。

　　［华远地产(600743,股吧)股份有限公司董事长任志强］回顾房地产行业发展的各个阶段，凡是土地供给低增长的情况出现，一定会形成后期的房价高增长。2012年房地产行业土地供给和库存仍然是负增长，这将形成下一轮房价的高增长。2013年3月份以后，房价可能会产生上涨性行情。

[huayuan real estate(600743,guba)Co., LTD., chairman of the board RenZhiJiang] review of the real estate industry at various stages of development，All land supply low growth occurs，Will form later house prices high growth。In 2012, the real estate industry land supply and inventory is still negative growth，This will form the next round of growth of the price of the house。Later in March 2013，House prices may lead to rising property prices。

　　［中国房地产协会副会长朱中一］ 5月份以来房价放量上升主要原因有两个：一是万科、恒大等龙头企业首先“以价换量”，引发行业降价促销，刺激刚性需求入市；二是6月份后政策基本面转向“稳增长”，降息等刺激手段相继出台，改变了房地产行业的一些预期。但要看到楼市成交数量和价格等指标是缓慢环比上升的，而新增投资、新开工面积、新购土地，同比还是下降的，所以，楼市回暖的基础并不牢靠。

[China real estate association, vice chairman of a zhu] may house prices rise since tumbled, there are two main reasons：One is the vanke、Evergrande etc leading enterprise first“To price in quantity”，Cause the industry depreciate sales promotion，Stimulation rigid demand market；The second is after June policy fundamentals steering“Steady growth”，To cut interest rates and stimulus means releasing，The real estate industry change some of the expected。But want to see the property market clinch a deal the quantity and the price index is slow link up，And new investment、New commenced area、The new purchase land，Up or down，so，The property market warms up in the foundation is not solid。

　　“稳增长”要为楼市“松绑”？

“Steady growth”For the property market“relax”？

　　［焦点］ 宏观政策转向“稳增长”后，为楼市“松绑”助推经济增长的呼声不断，楼市调控何去何从面临艰难抉择。

[focus] macroscopic policy change“Steady growth”after，For the property market“relax”Boosting economic growth calls，The property market regulation what course to follow face hard choices。

　　［金地（集团）股份有限公司总裁黄俊灿］ 今年上半年GDP降下来后，可以看到地方政府在不时地做一些小动作，希望在土地收入减少的情况下，对房地产行业有一些扶持。

[gold base（group）A joint stock limited company President HuangJunCan] in the first half of this year after GDP down，Can see from time to time in the local government to do some little tricks，Hope in the land income reduced circumstances，The real estate industry to have some support。

　　［国民经济研究所所长樊纲］我第一次参加博鳌房地产论坛就说了一句话，房地产商是中国最幸运的一批商人，这些年你们挣钱最多，不要国家一调控，就像怨妇一样抱怨“被抛弃”，难道要永远继续捧着吗？现在到了经济转型的时候了，尽管房地产业是支柱产业，但过度依赖就会出问题。

[national economic institute director who] my first time to attend boao real estate BBS said a words，The real estate business is China's most lucky a number of businessmen，You make money the most years，Don't countries a regulation，Like hatred fu complain“abandoned”，Don't always continue to hold？Now the economic transformation of the time，Although the real estate industry is a pillar industry，But excessive dependence on problems will emerge。

　　［朱中一］ 当前，既要防止经济进一步下滑，又要坚持房地产调控不放松，确实是一个难题。而且，在房地产调控中，中央和地方站的角度不一样，存在“土地财政”等制度设计问题。一些地方可能借口“稳增长”而放松调控，但中央政府今年把增长目标调低为7.5%，已体现了坚持楼市调控、促进经济转型的决心。我相信，随着国家加大监督检查和约谈问责等措施，房地产市场总体上会朝着预期方向发展。

[zhu a] the current，Not only must prevent the economy from falling further，But also to adhere to the real estate regulation not relax，It is a difficult problem。and，In the real estate regulation，The central and local station for different angles，exist“Land financial”System design problems。Some places may be an excuse“Steady growth”And to relax regulation，But this year the central government the growth target for 7.5% lower，Already reflected adhere to the market regulation、Promote the economic transformation of the determination。I believe that，As countries strengthen supervision inspection and questioning accountability measures，The real estate market in general will be expected direction。

　　可能错失制度建设良机？

May miss the opportunity system construction？

　　［焦点]一收就跌，一放就涨楼市屡现“弹簧效应”，根源仍然是行业制度建设的缺失。有人认为本轮楼市 “最严调控”已近三年，但行业性改革推进缓慢，可能会错失房地产制度建设良机，怎么办？

[focus] a charge will fall，Put a rose the property market is repeatedly“Spring effect”，Root is still lack of construction industry system。Some people think that this market “The most strict regulation”Already nearly three years，But trade reform slowly，May miss the real estate system construction opportunities，do？

　　［浙江广厦(600052,股吧)股份有限公司董事长杨玉林］ 下一步的国家房地产政策调整应该是多元化的、系统的、制度化的。这样无论对开发商还是消费者，都会有一个较为稳定的预期。作为开发商，需要集中精力顺应国家的制度建设，根据需求来进行市场定位和布局。

[zhejiang metal(600052,guba)Co., LTD., chairman of the board YangYuLin] the next national real estate policy adjustment should be diversified、system、institutionalized。So no matter for developers and consumers，There is a relatively stable expectations。As developers，Need to focus on conform to the country's system construction，According to demand for market orientation and layout。

　　［樊纲］ 目前楼市调控的目的、对象已经明确，即“抑制投资性住房需求，保证消费性住房需求的供给”。为此，房地产调控的当务之急不是每天重复要抑制房价，而是要尽快用经济手段替换下行政手段，用制度替换下政策。具体地说，就是尽快用税收、利率、信贷等政策来替换下类似“限购”这样的政策，否则不利于楼市持续健康发展，也不利于宏观经济平稳增长。

[who] at present market regulation purpose、The object is already clear，namely“Inhibition investment housing demand，Ensure the supply of housing consumer demand”。therefore，The urgent matter of the real estate regulation is not repeated every day to suppress prices，But as soon as possible to use economic means to replace the administrative means，With the system under the replacement policy。specifically，Is with tax as soon as possible、Interest rates、Credit policy to replace the similar“restricted”Such a policy，Otherwise, go against the property market continued healthy development，But also to the macro economic steady growth。

　　［中国城乡建设经济研究所所长陈淮］ 短期调控是必要的，但从长期看，用制度化办法取代临时性的行政措施，这样才符合客观发展规律。

[China's urban and rural construction and economic institute director of Chen huai of] short-term regulation is necessary，But in the long run，With institutional way to replace temporary administrative measures，So just accord with the objective law of development。