住建部政策研究中心主任秦虹：去投资化下自住性需求相对稳定

Live JianBu policy research center director QinHong：To invest in turn from the sexual needs to live relatively stable

　　在严厉的宏观调控下，今年二季度房地产量升价稳，但是在7月之后又迎来了一波回落。当前的房地产市场到底处于寒冬还是回暖，或者还有更冷的寒冬？在昨天的博鳌房地产论坛上，住建部政策研究中心主任秦虹表示，在去投资化的房地产市场中自住性的需求是相对稳定的，不必要为短期内的起伏而特别担忧。

In the severely under the macroeconomic regulation and control，In the second quarter of this year the real estate amount rise price stability，But in July after a wave of ushered in the back。The current real estate market in the end in winter or milder，Or more cold winter？In yesterday's boao real estate on the BBS，Live JianBu policy research center director QinHong said，To invest in the turn of the real estate market from live sexual demand is relatively stable，Unnecessary for short-term ups and downs and special concern。

　　瑞银证券有限责任公司董事总经理、瑞银投资银行中国区主席赵驹昨天表示，尽管有宏观调控，但从香港上市和内地上市的房地产公司分析显现，房地产板块的整体表现还是不错的。从整体表现来看，房地产板块的最高点还是2007年的年中，但是行业的低点不是现在，而是2008年12月份，那时是整个股票的低点，现在实际上是居于中间部位。特别是这一轮宏观调控，股价有升有降，但总体来看是比较平稳的。赵驹认为，房地产行业可能在未来一段时间依然扮演着GDP增长、经济增长的推手作用。

Ubs securities limited liability company's managing director、Ubs investment bank chairman of China ZhaoJu said yesterday，Despite the macroeconomic regulation and control，But from the hong kong-listed mainland and listed real estate company analysis revealed，Real estate plate as a whole is still good。See from the overall performance，Real estate plate high or 2007 years，But industry lows not now，But in December 2008，Then the whole stock is low，Now is actually in middle part。Especially this round of macroeconomic regulation and control，Share price rise and fall，But overall is more smoothly。ZhaoJu think，The real estate industry may be in the future period of time still plays a GDP growth、Economic growth is the crucible of action。

未来三四年 The future three or four years

房价会有低点 House prices will be low

　　不过，瑞士信贷董事总经理、亚洲区首席经济分析师陶冬认为，长远来看，中国房价必有一跌。如今上海的房价已经到了东京房价的水平，而上海人的收入只有东京人的1/5；如果海南岛的房地产存量和开发商们囤积的18万亩地都能建成房子，按照今天的价钱卖出去，收上来的钱足以买下曼哈顿。陶冬认为，中国房地产下一个低点将在三四年之后发生。

but，Credit suisse managing director、Asia area chief economic analysts TaoDong think，The long run，China's house prices there will be a drop。Now the house prices in Shanghai has reached the level of prices in Tokyo，And from Shanghai income only 1/5 of the people in Tokyo；If the tip of the island province of hainan real estate stock and developers hoarding of 180000 mu of land can be built house，According to today's price sell go out，Charge up money enough to buy Manhattan。TaoDong think，China's real estate next low will be in three or four years later occurred。

　　不过，赵驹对此并不认同，他表示，在宽松货币政策下，巨大的货币量还会支撑去购买房产，而城镇化还是要发展，房地产并没到市场需求见底的时候，未来这个行业还是会比较稳健。

but，ZhaoJu does not agree with，He said，In the loose monetary policy，Huge amount will also support to buy a house，And urbanization or development，Real estate is not to the market demand to see bottom，The future the industry will still is robust。

　　美国建高咨询公司总裁 Robert Young在演讲时表示，房地产最怕的就是不确定性。Robert Young表示，房地产的泡沫化一定是区域性的。在美国房地产跌得一塌糊涂时，纽约和帕拉奥特的房价不跌，南加州有一个地方由于有很多华人过去买房地产，那边的价格也不跌。所以，有泡沫应该是区域性的，可能有些地方不跌，可能有些地方会跌得很厉害。

The United States built high consulting company President Robert Young said in the speech，Real estate most afraid of be uncertainty。Robert Young said，Real estate frothy must be regional。In the United States real estate fall when in a great mess，New York and para OTT home prices don't fall，Southern California has a place with a lot of Chinese in the past to buy real estate，On the other side of the price also don't fall。so，A foam should be regional，May be some place does not fall，May be some places will fall very badly。

不必担忧成交量 Don't worry about volume

短期内升降 The short term lifting

　　对于房地产市场的起起落落，特别是7月份市场在二季度回暖之后再次回落，住建部政策研究中心主任秦虹表示，不需特别担心。

For the real estate market's ups and downs，Especially in July in the second quarter, the market fell again after milder，Live JianBu policy research center director QinHong said，Do not need to worry about special。

　　秦虹认为，政府对房地产的调控不会放松，抑制投资、投机需求，满足合理化自住需求是一整套政策，可能在相当长的一段时间内会坚持。因此，中国的房地产市场不可能靠投资性需求来支撑。投资、投机性需求去掉以后，剩下的主要是自住性需求，自住性需求在三五年内应该是常数，今年不买，可能明年就要买。这不像投资性、投机性需求可以买四五套，也可以买四五十套，那是没法估计的。所以，市场在三五年的周期中大致是稳定的，没必要为成交量短期内的上升下降而担忧。

QinHong think，The government to the real estate regulation will not relax，Inhibition investment、Speculative demand，Meet the rationalization self living demand is a set of policy，May for quite a long time will insist on。therefore，China's real estate market is not likely to investment demand to support。investment、The speculative demand after removed，The rest of the main is self living sexual needs，Since the sexual needs to live in 35 years should be constant，Don't buy this year，May need to buy next year。It's not like investment、The speculative demand can buy four or five sets，Also can buy forty or fifty sets，That is can't estimated。so，The market in 35 years of cycle is roughly stable，There's no need to short-term trading volume of the up and down and anxiety。

80/90后已经 80/90 has

成为购房主力 Become future.as

　　中原地产中国大陆区总裁赖国强表示，上世纪八九十年代的人口生育高峰时出生的人群逐渐进入婚龄，以30岁为首次置业年龄的话， 80/90后已经成为购房的主力，这种趋势将持续到2020年。

The central plains real estate mainland China region President LaiGuoJiang said，In the s and s of the population baby boom was born when the crowd into the marriage age gradually，For 30 years for the first time home buyers age words， After 80/90 has become the main purchase，This trend will continue until 2020。

　　根据中原地产的统计数据，四大城市中小户型所占的销售比例实际上在逐步减少，客户愿意买的房子面积开始偏大，希望一步到位，但往往是举一家之力购买的。（记者 蒋悦飞）

According to the statistical data of the central plains real estate，Four big cities of small and medium-sized family proportion of the sales of actually gradually reduce，Customers are willing to buy house area began to partial big，Hope that one pace reachs the designated position，But is often for a power purchase。（Reporter JiangYueFei）