南方日报讯 （记者/孙嘉琳）应中国银行中山分行的邀请，北京大学党委常委、副校长刘伟教授昨日来到中山市文化艺术中心小剧场参与2013年度中银论坛暨客户答谢会，并以2小时的演讲对中国宏观经济走势和政策调整作了深入的解读。刘伟认为，现阶段对中国经济而言是“机遇与挑战并存”，但按照经济周期推算，2013年，中国经济将有望迎来复苏。

Southern daily - (Reporter/SunJiaLin)Should the bank of China zhongshan branch invitation,Beijing university party committee standing committee/Vice President professor liu wei yesterday came to zhongshan culture and art center theater in 2013 annual boc BBS and customer DaXieHui,And with 2 hours of speech on China's macroeconomic trends and policy adjustment makes a thorough interpretation.Liu wei think,At the present stage of China's economy is in for"Opportunities and challenges",But in accordance with the economic cycle prediction,In 2013,,China's economic recovery is expected to have.

出口负贡献，增长靠内需 Export negative contribution,By domestic demand growth

　　2012年，中国人均GDP达到5800美元，按照世界银行的标准，相当于中等收入国家的水平。刘伟认为要实现这些目标，必须积极应对内需疲软、通货膨胀、市场化滞后等“中等收入陷阱”。他说，现阶段投资增长放缓，主要由于缺乏自主创新、自主研发、自有品牌等因素，相反，原来经济增长所依赖的土地、劳动力、自然环境等要素成本越来越高，无法支撑增长。

In 2012,,China's per capita GDP reached $5800,According to the standard of world bank,Equivalent to the level of middle-income countries.Liu wei think to achieve these goals,It is necessary to actively cope with weak domestic demand/inflation/Marketization lag, etc"Middle-income trap".He said,At the present stage investment growth,Mainly due to the lack of independent innovation/Independent research and development/Own brand factors,instead,The original economic growth depends on land/labor/Natural environment factor cost more and more high,Unable to support growth.

　　刘伟认为，在世界经济复苏蹒跚的大背景下，贸易保护主义容易抬头，中国所面临的出口环境将更加严峻。

Liu wei think,In the world economic recovery staggering background,Trade protectionism easy to look up,China faces export environment will be more severe.

　　投资方面，政府正择机退出前两年的扩张性财政政策，减少财政投资，但企业投资未能跟进，就可能导致投资不足的问题。大企业有钱，但技术创新力不够，缺乏产业升级空间，而小企业想投却缺乏资金，市场未能形成有效的投资需求，只能迫使政府再度出手。

investment,The government is out of the first two years of dilated fiscal policy,Reduce financial investment,But the enterprise investment failed to follow up,May lead to the problem of insufficient investment.Large enterprises have,But the technology innovation is not enough,The lack of industrial upgrade space,And small businesses want to throw but lack of money,The market failed to form effective investment demand,Can only forced the government to sell again.

　　房地产价格很难下降 Real estate prices is hard to fall

　　有现场观众向刘伟提问房地产调控政策的走向，刘伟说：“房地产是不可或缺的主导产业群，对经济的拉动作用非常明显，既能带动资本积累、技术进步，还能带动就业，很难有别的产业能够代替。不能因为有泡沫就动摇了现阶段把房地产作为主导产业发展的基本政策态势，否则经济增长的结构动力会严重缺失。”

Have the audience questions to liu wei real estate regulation policy trend,Liu wei said:"Real estate is the indispensable dominant industry group,The economic pull effect is very obvious,Can drive the accumulation of capital/Technology progress,Can also promote employment,It is difficult to have other industry can replace.Not because of the bubble shake of the present stage of the real estate as the development of leading industry basic policy situation,Otherwise, the structure of economic growth power will be serious loss."

　　刘伟认为，工业化和城镇化加速的过程中，房地产价格一定会上涨，现在只能将上涨速度控制好，使其与人民生活水平提高的速度相吻合。他承认房地产泡沫的存在，也赞同政策上对泡沫必须有效控制，还住宅本来的属性。

Liu wei think,Industrialization and urbanization process accelerated,Real estate prices will rise,Now only will rise speed control,And the people's living standards improve speed coincide.He admitted the existence of the real estate bubble,Also agree with the policy of foam must be effective control,Also house was attributes.

　　房地产价格上涨的趋势压力什么时候才会降低？刘伟说，一方面要度过工业化、城镇化基本加速期；另一方面是刚需问题，“中国现在是三代人同时买房，这在全世界是罕见的。”他说，“未来独生子女的孩子可能一个人就要继承7套房，到那个时候，房价就可能会降了。”

Real estate prices rising trend when will reduce the pressure?Liu wei said,On the one hand to through industrialization/Urbanization basic acceleration period;On the other hand is just need to question,"China is now three generations at the same time to buy a house,It is rare in the world."He said,"In the future the singleton female children may a person will inherit 7 suites,By that time,House prices may down."