新平

xinping

　　近日，三季度宏观统计数据纷纷出炉，虽然出现了一系列积极信号，但全年经济增速完全可能回落到8%以下，从而成为1999年以来首个低于8%的年份，同时也低于1979-2011年32年的经济增长平均速度（9.9%）。为此，必须加大金融对实体经济的支持力度，特别是凸显其结构性支撑作用。

recently,Third quarter macroscopic statistical data have been released,Although appear a series of positive signal,But the economic growth could be back to below 8%,Since 1999, becoming the first of the year of less than 8%,At the same time also less than 1979-2011 and years of economic growth average speed(9.9%).therefore,Must increase financial support to economic entity,Especially highlight the structural support effect.

　　第一，应在创造货币需求而不是货币供给上下功夫。从货币供应量来看，我国9月末广义货币M2余额94.37万亿元，同比增长14.8%；与此同时，前三季度人民币贷款增加6.72万亿元，同比多增1.04万亿元。应当说，货币信贷增长是平稳适度的，加上通货膨胀水平已回落到2%以下，本来货币政策进一步放松调整的空间已经开启。但是，当今世界各国正在普遍推行宽松货币政策，例如欧洲央行率先推出直接货币交易（OMT），美联储推出第三轮量化宽松（QE3）等等，这些国际宏观政策的效应必然向国内传导，加上我国正在进行天然气等能源价格改革，以及劳动力成本、房租成本的上升，如果货币政策部门贸然大幅下调存款准备金率，很可能引发新一轮通货膨胀。也就是说，货币信贷投放应伴随国家重点建设项目以及各类需求的启动而增加，不宜主动制造货币宽松。

The first,Should be in creating monetary demand rather than money supply fluctuation kongfu.From the money supply to see,Our country late September the M2 balance is 94.37 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 14.8%;meanwhile,The first three quarters RMB loan an increase of 6.72 trillion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 1.04 trillion yuan.To say,Currency credit growth is steady modest,And the level of inflation has dropped to below 2%,Originally monetary policy further relax adjustment of space is open.but,The countries all over the world are universally implemented loose monetary policy,For example, the European central bank take the lead in put out direct currency trading(OMT),The federal reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing(QE3), etc,These international macro policy effect inevitable to domestic conduction,And in our country's present natural gas energy price reform,And labor cost/The rent costs rise,If monetary policy departments rushed slashed the deposit reserve rate,Is likely to trigger a new round of inflation.That is,Currency credit availability should be with national key construction projects and all kinds of demand and increase the start,Shoulds not be active manufacturing monetary loose.

　　第二，应在优化信贷结构方面下功夫。首先，要加大对有订单、有效益、符合审慎信贷条件的出口企业的信贷支持。今年前三季度，我国出口总值14953.9亿美元，增长7.4%，对外贸易出现低位企稳迹象。但必须清醒认识，中国经济过去几十年之所以能够快速发展，重要原因之一就是外贸以两位数的速度增长。“成也萧何，败也萧何”，如今导致经济增速下滑的恰恰又是出口下降。必须抱着“咬定青山不放松”的心态，摒弃“内需决定论”，一如既往支持我国外贸行业健康发展。其次，要继续加大对小微企业的信贷支持。从国内看，自去年工信部等四部委制定新的中小企业划型标准以来，国务院又于今年出台了《关于进一步支持小型微型企业健康发展的意见》。从国际上看，第三版本的巴塞尔协议将小微企业的风险权重下调为75%。这些政策的出台，无不作为风向标，反映出国内外政府部门对小微企业在经济发展中作用的高度重视。必须想方设法，在监管指标上给予适当倾斜，在财税政策上给予必要优惠，确保银行业金融机构在商业可持续基础上，小微企业贷款增速不低于全部贷款平均增速，增量高于去年同期水平。另外，还要加大对创新型科技企业的信贷支持。众所周知，由于我国资本回报率下降，以及人口、加入世贸红利逐步趋弱，我国潜在经济增长率面临下行风险已是不争事实，必须寻找新的经济增长极。与此同时，我们看到，人类文明的每一次重大进步都与科学技术的革命性突破密切相关，世界主要国家纷纷调整科技部署，把科技创新上升为国家发展战略，加大相关投入，抢占未来发展制高点。为此，银行业金融机构应综合运用买方信贷、卖方信贷、融资租赁等方式，积极支持科技创新型企业发展，并在有效控制风险前提下，发展知识产权和股权质押贷款，真正解决创新型科技企业的资金困难。

The second,Should optimize the credit structure aspect.First of all,To strengthen the order/A benefit/Conform to the prudent credit conditions of the export enterprise credit support.The first three quarters of this year,Our export (GDP) of us $1.49539 trillion,Growth of 7.4%,Foreign trade appeared low signs stabilises.But must clear recognition,China's economy in the past few decades are able to rapid development,One of the important reasons is the foreign trade double-digit rates."Into respectively secretary also,Loss respectively secretary also",Now lead to economic growth and decline of the decline in exports.Must carry"Back up castle peak not relax"mentality,Slam the door"Domestic demand determinism",As always support our country foreign trade to the healthy development of industry.secondly,Will continue to intensify the small micro enterprise credit support.From domestic see,Since last year's work letter department 4 ministries and commissions such as the formulation of new small and medium-sized enterprise row since type standard,The state council and in introduced this year[On further support the healthy development of small miniature enterprise opinion].Look from the international,The third version of the Basel agreement will small micro enterprise risk weight by 75%.These policies come on stage,All as a wind vane,Reflects the government departments at home and abroad to small micro enterprise in the economic development in the role of attach great importance to.Must try to,In the regulatory index to appropriately,In the finance and tax policy to give necessary preferential,Ensure that the banking financial institutions in the business sustainable basis,Small small enterprise loan growth is not lower than the average rate of all loans,Incremental higher than the same period last year level.In addition,Should strengthen the innovative science and technology enterprise credit support.As is known to all,Because our country return on capital decline,And population/Accession to the world trade bonus gradually hasten weak,Our country economic growth potential faced downside risks is already known fact,Must find new economic growth pole.meanwhile,We see,Human civilization every major progress and science and technology closely related to the revolutionary breakthrough,The world's major countries adjustment technology deployment,The science and technology innovation rise for the national development strategy,Increase relevant investment,Take the future development commanding heights.therefore,Banking financial institutions should be comprehensive use of buyer's credit/Seller's credit/A financing lease, etc,Actively support the development of science and technology innovation enterprise,And in the effective control on the premise of risk,Development of intellectual property and equity pledge loan,The real solution to the innovative science and technology enterprise's financial difficulty.

　　第三，应在优化银行业机构布局方面下功夫。党的十六大以来，我国银行业取得的成就有目共睹，特别是根本化解了银行体系的财务风险，建立了符合现代银行业特点的公司治理组织架构，制定实施了国际监管新标准。但是，小微企业和“三农”等薄弱领域的金融服务离实际需求还有相当差距，主要因为在相关服务领域具有比较优势的银行机构结构性匮乏，必须多管齐下，妥善解决这一问题。其一，要在制定《关于鼓励和引导民间资本进入银行业的实施意见》的基础上，积极开展民间资本作为银行业金融机构主发起人试点，真正突破“玻璃门”和“旋转门”。其二，要加大准入政策对小微企业和“三农”领域的倾斜。采取更多的鼓励和督促措施，引导商业银行设立小企业信贷中心、三农事业部等，建立专业化机制，创新特色产品，加大薄弱领域信贷支持。其三，放开城商行跨区域发展，让市场竞争机制更多发挥作用。实际上，当城商行发现北京、上海等一线城市因为竞争过于激烈以致无法生存的时候，他们自然而然就会把业务重点移回自身注册地，甚至在当地进一步服务下沉，面向小微，同时也很好避免了金融当局行政指挥信贷投向的低效率。

The third,Should be in optimization banking institutions layout aspect.Since the 16th CPC national congress,The achievements of China's banking industry there for all to see,Especially fundamental resolve the bank system of financial risk,Established accord with the characteristics of modern banking corporate governance structure,The implementation of the new standard of the international supervision.but,Small micro enterprise and"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"And in the field of weak financial services from the actual demand is still a gap,Mainly because in the related services has comparative advantage of banking institutions structural shortage,Must be multi-pronged approach.we,Properly solve the problem.one,To make[About encouraging and guiding the folk capital into the banking of the implementation opinions]Based on,Actively carry out folk capital as a banking financial institution main promoter pilot,A real breakthrough"Glass door"and"Revolving door".The second,To increase the access policy on small micro enterprise and"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"Areas of inclined.Take more encouragement and supervise measures,Leading commercial bank set up small business credit center/Department of agriculture, countryside and farmers, such as,Establish professional mechanism,Innovation characteristic products,Weak field increase credit support.thirdly,Let go of city businesses across the region development,Let the market competition mechanism more play a role.In fact,When the city firm found that Beijing/Shanghai waiting for a line city because too much competition so that when cannot survive,They naturally into the business priorities to move back to their own place,Even in the local further service sinks,Face small micro,At the same time is also very good to avoid the financial authorities administrative command credit to low efficiency.

　　(作者为银行业从业者)

(The author for the banking industry practitioners)