每日经济新闻记者 卓志强 发自广州

The daily economic news记者 ZhuoZhiJiang 发自广州

　　由知名导演陈可辛执导的新片《中国合伙人》预计将于4月16日正式公映。这部由真人改编的励志电影，讲述的是上世纪80年代至今，三个小人物白手起家，齐力创办英语培训学校的故事。反映到现实中，该剧本主角的人物原型正是新东方教育科技集团（以下简称新东方）及其创始人俞敏洪。

由知名导演陈可辛执导的新片[Chinese partners]Is expected to be officially released on April 16.The inspirational movie adapted from reality,About the 1980 s,Three little scratch,Pulling the story start English training school.Reflected in the reality,The script hero characters archetype is new Oriental education technology group(Hereinafter referred to as new Oriental school)And its founder Mr Yu.

　　起步于1993年的新东方将在今年11月16日迎来20岁生日，然而，新东方先收到的“生日礼物”，却是公司“四年来首亏”其公布的截至2012年11月30日的第二季度财报显示，该季净亏损1580万美元。

起步于1993年的New Oriental将在今年11月16日迎来20岁生日,however,New Oriental received first"A birthday present",It is the company"First loss in four years"As of Nov. 30, 2012 released its second-quarter results show,The quarterly net loss of $15.8 million.

　　尽管过去几年，由于受金融危机的后续影响及房地产调控的持续深入，多个行业进入低迷期，但英语培训行业却保持着强劲的增长姿态。有数据表明，2012年我国外语培训行业产值超过900亿元，而2009年，这一数字仅在200亿元上下。

尽管过去几年,Due to the aftermath of a financial crisis and real estate regulation and control of the sustained and in-depth,Multiple industries into the downturn,But English training industry has maintained a strong growth.Have data to show that,China's foreign language training industry output value of more than 90 billion yuan in 2012,In 2009,,This figure is only around 20 billion yuan.

　　“新东方这次亏损，暴露出它管理上的一些问题，同时，今年整个英语培训行业可能会有从野蛮扩张到需要规范管理的趋势。”接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时，长期关注教育产业的i美股分析师李莹说道。

"New Oriental loss this time,Some of the problems exposed it management,At the same time,This year the whole English training industry may have from the wild expansion to standardizing management trends."To accept[The daily economic news]Reporter in an interview,Pay close attention to the education industry for a long time I Wall Street analyst said the child.

　　扩张过快：4个季度开设238家学习中心/

扩张过快:Open 238 learning centers/four quarters

　　2月下旬某个普通的周一上午，新东方广州海珠区客村分校，员工们正在忙碌，偶尔会有学生家长前来咨询。在接待室，记者看到桌上摆满各式各样的传单资料，大约20种，多为有应试需求的中小学生 “量身定制”。

2月下旬某个普通的周一上午,New Oriental guangzhou hai ke at village,Staff are busy,Occasionally, students' parents to come to consult.In the reception room,Reporters to see the table filled up with all kinds of information leaflet,About 20 species of,Is takes an exam the demand for primary and middle school students "customized".

　　“我们亏损，是因为之前扩张得太快了。”一位工作人员向记者解释道，有些地区关了教学中心，但广州方面还没有听到类似消息。她提供给记者的资料表明，新东方在广州7个行政区已拥有分校32所。

"Our losses,Because before expanding too fast."An official explained to reporters,In some areas closed teaching center,But guangzhou also didn't hear similar messages.She provides to the reporter's data show,At seven administrative regions in guangzhou new Oriental has 32.

　　此前，新东方坦承自己犯了错误对收入增长的预期过于乐观，扩张速度过快。而面对季度亏损的现实，新东方总裁兼CFO谢东萤表示，新东方将关闭15~25个教学中心，4个月内将裁员1000~1500名。平均遣散成本为6000美元~10000美元/人。

此前,New Oriental admits he made a mistake on revenue growth forecast is too optimistic,Expand too fast.But facing the reality of a quarterly loss,New Oriental's President and CFO hsieh said,New Oriental will be closed 15 ~ 25 teaching center,4 months it would lay off 1000 ~ 1500.Average severance cost is $6000 ~ $10000 / person.

　　“新东方亏损，意料之中。现在员工工资以及社保都在增长，房租也每年按照8%~10%的速度增长，英语培训有环球以及新航道在追，中小学培训有学而思等机构，留学市场我们这些机构为了占有市场，不得不降低中介费，还要提高质量，虽然新东方留学市场有所增长，但利润未必会增长，不看好新东方的后市发展。”360教育集团董事长罗成通过微博评价道。

"New Oriental's losses,No surprise.Employee wages and social security are growing now,The rent is in accordance with the speed of 8% ~ 10% growth a year,New channel English training has a universal and chasing,Training of primary and secondary schools have learning and thought etc,We in the study abroad market institutions in order to occupy the market,To reduce the intermediary costs,To improve the quality,Although the new Oriental school study abroad market,But would not necessarily increase profits,Don't look good afternoon development of new Oriental."360教育集团董事长罗成通过weibo评价道.

　　不过，新东方官方给出的回应是，对此次亏损，“外部”产生的影响远远大于内部。因为第二财季（9~11月）原本就是新东方的“小季”，与寒假、暑假两个“大季”相比，历年“小季”盈利都少。

but,New Oriental's official response is given,For the loss,"external"Impact is much greater than the interior.Since the second quarter(9 ~ 11 month)Originally is the new Oriental school"XiaoJi",And the winter vacation/Both the summer vacation"A surname"Compared to the,Over the years"XiaoJi"Profits are small.

　　李莹认为，新东方的确是因为扩张过快导致了亏损，不只新东方，学大教育自上市以来，也因为扩张原因导致不少季 度 亏损，“新东方的亏损，暴露出它管理上的一些问题。”据李莹介绍，由于英语培训机构大多是预付款模式，过去这个行业的现金流非常好，导致扩张速度极快。

李莹认为,New Oriental is really because of rapid expansion led to the loss,Not only new Oriental,Xueda education since listed,Also because expansion causes lot of quarterly losses,"New Oriental's losses,Some of the problems exposed it management."The child said,Because English training agencies are mostly advance mode,The cash flow is very good for this industry in the past,Led to the expansion speed.

　　新东方官网资料显示，截至2012年5月，其已在全国49个城市设立了55所学校、7家产业机构、32家书店以及600多家学习中心，累计培训学员近1300万人。但“仅仅是过去的4个季度，新东方就开设了238家学习中心。”

New Oriental官网资料显示,As of May 2012,It has been set up 55 schools in 49 cities in China/Seven industrial institutions/32 stores and more than 600 learning centers,Training student nearly 13 million people.but"Just the past four quarters,New Oriental opened 238 learning centers."

　　“最近几个季度，新东方单季的学校数量增长都超过40%，非常恐怖。”李莹对记者说，“新东方内部是直接考核各地校长，校长最直接的做法就是新开分校。之前的新东方，集团副总就拥有批准开设分校的权利，而新东方地方的管理人员一般是从教师开始做起的，"诸侯割据"的情况导致一些地方的校长跟集团的副总关系很好。也就是说，找个关系跟自己好的副总，直接批一下，就可以新开分校了。”

"In recent quarters,More than 40% increase in the number of new Oriental school of quarterly,Is very terrorist."Unpaid, told reporters,"New Oriental is internal inspection around the principal directly,The principal, the most direct approach is a new open campus.Before the new Oriental,Group vice President has approved the rights of the campus,And the new Oriental place, managers usually start from teachers,"The governors regime"Situation, leading to some parts of the President have a good relationship with group's vice President.That is to say,Looking for a relationship with their good vice President,A direct shipment,Can go to the newly opened branch."

　　高速扩张之下，问题开始显现。

高速扩张之下,Problems began to emerge.

　　“我们现在发现，包括新东方也承认了，目前新东方的教学水平较它早期的高水平是有一定稀释的。”李莹说,目前的新东方至少面临三方面的问题。首先是内部管理面临调整，快速扩张的源头在于副总权力比较集中；其次是部分老师会“倒戈”的问题，比如有些部门负责人会带着他的经营团队自己去成立一个学校；第三是从资本市场估值的角度看，现在的新东方不是过去的新东方了，过去的新东方是做留学等大单，收费非常高，利润有保证，但现在低利润率的业务已经逐步取代高利润率的业务。

"We now find,Including new Oriental admitted,The teaching level of the new Oriental is it early there is a high level of dilution."Child said,The new Oriental faces at least three aspects.First is internal management face adjustment,Rapid expansion of power source is the vice President is concentrated;Second part is teacher"defect"The problem of,Such as the有些部门负责人会带着他的经营团队自己去Set up一个学校;The third is from capital market valuation point of view,The new Oriental now is not the new Oriental before,The past study in new Oriental do big, etc,Charge is very high,Profit guaranteed,But now low-margin business has gradually replace high margin business.

　　最新财报数据显示，新东方

最新财报数据显示,New Oriental

　　运营利润率为30.2%，

运营利润率为30.2%,

　　但去年同期，这

but去年同期,this

　　一 数 字 为

一 数 字 为

　　35.7%。

35.7%.

　　格局变迁：新东方领地被蚕食/

格局变迁:New Oriental's territory is eating /

　　在行业里，新东方依然尊享“一家独大”。“所谓的大，是因为它做得比较全，所以它的营收规模也是最大的。”李莹解释，但是在一些细分领域，细微的变化已经在进行。

在行业里,New Oriental is still honour enjoy"dominance"."The so-called big,Because it do more fully,So its revenue scale is also the biggest."Unpaid explain,But in some niche,Subtle changes have already been taken.

　　2012年7月，新东方将旗下的精英英语以550万美元的价格剥离给精英英语总经理翁云凯。彼时，有声音认为，新东方此举在于其认为精英英语所面对的高端消费者，市场容量较小，所以剥离。

2012年7月,New Oriental's elite English for $5.5 million to elite English WengYunKai general manager.At the time,A voice that,It is the thought elite English of new Oriental school faces high-end consumers,Market capacity is small,So off.

　　但在李莹看来，这可能是源于新东方没有竞争过华尔街英语、英孚教育等同类机构。

but在李莹看来,This may be due to no competition to Wall Street English of new Oriental school/Ef education and other similar institutions.

　　《每日经济新闻》记者在采访中了解到，为争抢不断放大的市场蛋糕，近年来国内英语培训行业新进者众多。目前行业主要由4种力量组成：第一种是各大高校衍生出来的英语培训机构；第二种是国内知名民营培训机构，如新东方；第三种是起点很低但数量庞杂的一般民营英语培训机构；第四种则是“外来抢食者”，比如华尔街英语。

[The daily economic news]The reporter understands in the interview,For building up the market cake,In recent years, many domestic English training industry new entrants.At present industry mainly consists of four kinds of power:The first is derived at universities English training institutions;The second is the domestic well-known private training institutions,Such as new Oriental school;The third is the starting point is low but the number of confused general private English training institutions;The fourth is the"Foreign snatching prey",Such as the华尔街英语.

　　广州天河区体育西路商圈，集中了多家英语培训机构，包括华尔街英语、韦博国际英语、美联英语、沃尔得国际英语等。定位于高端客户群的华尔街英语正是新东方精英英语的强劲对手。

广州天河区体育西路商圈,Concentrated in several English training institutions,Including the Wall Street English/Web international English/Al English/Theo international English, etc.Positioning in the high-end customer group of Wall Street English is new Oriental elite English rival.

　　华尔街英语体育西中心课程顾问经理赵小娟向《每日经济新闻》记者介绍，华尔街是2005年进入广州，现有9家分校。“我本人在华尔街待了3年，师资力量、学员数量等情况一直在增长。应该说学英语的越来越多了，我们去年开了两所，佛山和广州9（数字代表第9所分校，编者注），今年可能开佛山2，广州10也有可能。”

华尔街英语体育西中心课程顾问经理赵小娟向[The daily economic news]A reporter,Wall Street is established in guangzhou in 2005,The existing nine campuses."I spent 3 years on Wall Street,faculty/Have grown in number of students, and so on and so forth.It should be said that more and more to learn English,We opened two last year,9 in foshan and guangzhou(Number 9,Editor's note),May drive foshan 2 this year,Guangzhou 10 May."

　　总部设在上海的韦博国际英语同样处于稳步扩张中，2013年是该机构进入广州的第7年，其目前在广州有7家分校。该机构课程顾问涂晶晶介绍说，在7家分校中，第一家分校到第二家，期间经过了一两年时间，反而是最近一两年新开得比较多。

总部设在上海的Web international English同样处于稳步扩张中,In guangzhou in 2013 was the seventh year,It currently has seven branch in guangzhou.The course consultant TuJingJing said,In the seven branch,At first to the second home,After a year or two during the time,Instead, is to open more recently a year or two.

　　赵小娟这样理解目前广州市场上英语培训机构的格局：新东方偏应试；华尔街针对比较高端的成人学员；英孚在全球做青少年教育，现在也做海外留学；韦博是中国人自己开的，不少地方照搬了华尔街的模式；美联英语和韦博差不多，美联要晚一些（成立）。

赵小娟this样理解目前广州市场上英语training机构的格局:New Oriental partial test;Wall Street for more high-end adult students;Ef education do teenagers around the world,Now also do overseas study;Web is the Chinese themselves,A lot of places copy on Wall Street;Al English and web,Al to later(Set up).

　　“它存在，毕竟有它的理由。”涂晶晶说，“像英孚，最早是做少儿市场的，后来也转做成人；华尔街比较高端，环境好，看上去是有高消费水准；对于韦博的定义，我觉得是走中庸路线，比较大众化的。”

"It is,After all, has its reason."TuJingJing said,"Like ef,First is to do children's market,Later also do adults;Wall Street is high-end,Environment is good,Look there is a high consumption level;In the definition of web,I think it is taking the doctrine of the mean line,More popular."

　　在上述机构悄然崛起的同时，部分“弱者”却被逼退。

在上述机构悄然崛起的At the same time,Part of the"The weak"But was forced to retreat.

　　2009年，号称“百年权威”的灵格风英语在全国多个教学点出现 “破产、停课、卷款逃跑”的情况，是年年底，新动态教育集团将广州灵格风收入囊中。尔后，凯恩英语、瑞来英语也陷入关门风潮，一些处于更小阵营中的教学机构更是接二连三地选择从市场退出。

2009年,Claims to be"Authority in one hundred"Linguaphone English more than in the whole country to teach "bankruptcy/closed/Fled away with"In the case,In the end of,New dynamic education group will guangzhou linguaphone.then,Kane English/Our English is also in close the door,Some smaller camps in teaching institutions but also in the spate of select quit from the market.

　　李莹表示，英语培训行业已经在分化，而未来这个行业面临的最大冲击在于，这些机构将集体进入管理的整顿期，深度洗牌。

李莹表示,English language training industry has been divided,But the biggest impact is facing the industry in the future,Will enter the collective management of the consolidation period,Depth of the shuffle.

　　据她预计，未来可能会形成两个极端，“规模大的、非常规范的机构会非常好；非常小的、作坊式机构可能也会很好地存在。因为后者不会涉及到过多的扩张，而专注教学效果和口碑。”

据她预计,The future is likely to form two extremes,"The size of/Very standard institutions will be very good;A very small/Cottage agencies may also exist very well.Because the latter does not involve excessive expansion,And focused on the teaching effect and word of mouth."

　　赵小娟也认为，在教育行业，规模不是关键因素，口碑才决定生死，因为它需要的是持续性的学习，如果学生学得不好，他不可能再继续学习了，或者不可能带朋友来学习。

赵小娟也认为,In the education industry,Size is not the key factor,Word of mouth to decide life and death,Because it need continuous learning,If students learn well,He could no longer continue to learn,Or take a friend to learn.

　　行业趋势：精细市场时代来临/

行业趋势:Age/fine market

　　“现在中国人学英语的热情是很高的，市场每年能达到两位数增长，留学业务逐年增长的趋势非常明显，还有像以前大家不太熟悉的SAT等，需求也越来越大。”李莹说，不过，新东方亏损以及近年来一些培训机构的退出，给了整个行业一丝警醒：从野蛮扩张到精细化管理已成迫切命题。

"Chinese to study English the enthusiasm is very high now,The market can achieve double-digit growth every year,Study abroad business increased year by year trend is very obvious,As in the past and you not familiar with SAT, etc,Demand is also growing."Child said,but,New Oriental losses and exit some training institutions in recent years,Gave the industry a alert:From the wild expansion to fine management proposition has become urgent.

　　从外部因素看，教育方式的转型也存在必要。有报道指出，一些投资公司正在改变投资策略，将资金投向那些有网上业务的教育公司，而不是传统型线下教育实体。事实上，以2012年看，不少在线教育机构纷纷成立，而传统教育机构也试图以“在线”元素来满足用户需求。

从external因素看,The transformation of education way is necessary.The report pointed out that,Some investment firms are changing investment strategy,Will money into companies that have a online business education,Rather than the traditional offline education entities.In fact,,In 2012, the,Many online education institutions have established,While also trying to traditional education institutions"online"Elements to meet user needs.

　　涂晶晶向记者表示，线上教育的确可能对传统的英语培训机构产生冲击，另一方面，现在学员有更多的渠道去了解英语培训，这些因素都对既有的培训机构提出了新的要求。

涂晶晶向记者表示,Online education can indeed impact on traditional English training institutions,On the other hand,Now students have more channels to understand English training,All of these factors on the existing training institutions put forward new requirements.

　　不过，李莹却认为，“其实我没有太多看到来自线上教育的冲击，因为现在没有任何一个线上机构有成熟的线上模式。我也不认为会有一种线上模式能颠覆线下的教育，因为教育本身是非常讲究体验的。一个例子是，我们虽然在电脑上也能下载到电影，但它能替代你在电影院看电影的感受吗？这和网络购物又有所不同，比如淘宝上买的东西和超市买的东西，但这个东西的本质是一样的。培训却不一样，面对面获得的培训和在线上接收的教育，哪怕只是在细微的交流过程中，这种感受也是不一样的。”

but,Child thought,"Actually I don't have too much to see from the impact of online education,Because now no one online agencies have mature online mode.I don't think there will be a kind of online education mode can upset the offline,Because the education itself is very exquisite experience.One example is,Although we can also download the movie on the computer,But it can replace you the feeling of the movie at the cinema?This and the network shopping is different,Such as the淘宝上买的东西和超市买的东西,But this thing is the nature of the same.Training is different,Face to face training and online, to receive education,Even if it is only in the slight communication process,This feeling is not the same."

　　广州某英语培训机构一位不愿具名的人士认为，从本源上讲，这个行业的威胁是来自于行业内部，它的专业度，如何不断去研究一些新的东西，让来到这里的学员也好、客户也好，能够真正地得到提升。

广州某英语training机构一位不愿具名的人士认为,Tell from the source,The industry internal threat comes from the industry,It's professional degrees,How to continue to study some new things,Let the students come here all right/The customer or not,To really get a boost.

　　上述人士还认为，教育是需要有专门的团队去研究的，如果没有专业的团队，给出来的学习方法没有专业性，那很难做到可持续性。另外一点则是服务，在教育行业，服务虽然不是最关键的，但从供求主体看，学员首先是一个消费者，如果同类型的培训机构，价格也差不多，服务做得更好当然就更吸引人。

上述人士还认为,Education is the need to have a special team to study,If there is no professional team,To come out of no professional learning method,It is very difficult to achieve sustainability.Another point is service,In the education industry,Although not the most critical services,But look from the main body of supply and demand,Students first is a consumer,If the same type of training institutions,Price is the same,Service to do better, of course, is more intriguing.

　　赵小娟对此表示认同，“我感觉要做得比较专业，要有效果，包括服务要做到位。其实语言（培训）你要做好才可以。”

赵小娟对此表示认同,"I feel to do more professional,Have the effect,Including the service to do.Actually, language(training)Do you want to do."

　　在李莹看来，新东方“感冒”和行业洗牌对目前国内的英语培训机构给出了一些必要路径：一是新东方案例所反映出管理需要改善，要更加规范化；二是面对不同的客户，要慢慢去渗透细分市场，做到人性化；三是进一步研究，怎样通过更好的方式传授给学生。

在李莹看来,New Oriental"Catch a cold"Industry reshuffle of English training institutions at home and abroad, and gives some necessary path:It is reflected by new Oriental cases management needs to improve,To be more standardized;Secondly, in the face of different customers,Going slowly penetrating market segment,Do human;Three is to further research,How to teach students in a better way.

　　“我认为目前的增速会在这个行业保持下去，至少在一个比较短的时期内会保持，只不过市场可能会发生变化，比如留学从传统的GRE、托福转向SAT留学精英化这一块了，幼儿培训也在兴起。”李莹补充说，“未来线上的教育也不断创新和发展，从潜在市场的角度，这个行业还是有很多的空间可以去开拓。”

"I think the growth will continue in this business,At least in a short period of time will keep,But the market may change,Such as the留学从传统的GRE/Toefl to SAT study in elite of this block,Early childhood training also on the rise."Child added,"Online education is also constant innovation and development in the future,From the perspective of the potential market,The industry can still have a lot of space to develop."

　　作者：卓志强

作者:ZhuoZhiJiang