人力资源和社会保障部25日发布，三季度末我国城镇登记失业率为4.1%，与二季度末持平。这一数据已连续第九个季度保持在4.1%的水平。

    Human resources and social security issued by 25,At the end of the third quarter in China registered urban unemployment rate is 4.1%,And at the end of the second quarter flat.The data has its ninth consecutive quarter remain at 4.1%.

　　从《经济参考报》记者多方了解的情况来看，当前我国就业形势总体平稳，但结构性难题仍存，尤其是应届毕业生就业形势依然严峻。

from[Economic reference to]Reporters know the situation,The current our country employment situation overall smooth,But structural problems are still,Especially fresh graduates employment situation is still severe.

　

　形势 situation

　　当前就业总体平稳 The current employment overall smooth

　　据人力资源和社会保障部新闻发言人尹成基介绍，前三季度我国就业形势总体平稳。1至9月，全国城镇新增就业1024万人，完成全年900万人目标的114%。城镇失业人员再就业完成432万人，完成全年500万人目标的86%。就业困难人员实现就业135万人，完成全年120万人目标的113%。三季度末，城镇登记失业率为4 .1%，与二季度末持平。

According to human resources and social security ministry spokesman YinChengJi is introduced,The first three quarters our country employment situation overall smooth.1 to September,The new town employment of 10.24 million people,Hit the year 9 million 114% of the target.Town unemployment personnel again obtain employment finished 4.32 million people,Hit the year 5 million 86% of the target.People who have difficulty finding employment to realize the employment of 1.35 million people,Hit the year 1.2 million 113% of the target.At the end of the third quarter,Registered urban unemployment rate is 4. 1%,And at the end of the second quarter flat.

　　《经济参考报》记者多方了解到 的 情 况 与 尹 成 基 介 绍 的 基 本 相符。据了解，当前我国多个行业用人需求仍然较为旺盛。

[Economic reference to]The reporters know affection condition and Yin into base interface shaoxing base this consistent.It is understood,The current our country many industries employing demand is still relatively strong.

　　中国人力资源市场信息监测中心通过对全国100个城市的公共就业服务机构市场供求信息进行统计分析发现，八成以上的用人需求集中在制造业、居民服务、批发零售等行业。与去年同期相比上述行业用人需求均有上涨，其中建筑业、居民服务和其他服务业的需求涨幅较大。

China's human resource market information monitoring center through to the country's 100 city public employment service agencies market supply and demand information statistical analysis found,More than eighty percent of the employing demand concentrated in the manufacturing industry/Residents service/Wholesale and retail, etc.Compared with the same period last year the industry employing demand are is rising,The construction/Residents service and other services needs or larger.

　　尽管经济增速持续下滑，但各项就业指标明显向好，有分析人士表示，从工业企业从业人数、城镇新增就业和全国人才市场的数据来看，当前就业状况整体仍然比较平稳，就业问题尚未令人担忧。

Although economic growth continued to slide,But the employment index obviously better off,Have analysts said,From the industrial enterprise of employees/Town new employment and the national talent market data to see,The current employment status overall still more smoothly,The employment problem has not been worrying.

　　东方证券在近日一份研报中指出，前8个月规模以上工业企业全部从业人员平均人数为8978 .5万人，累计同比增长1 .3%。尽管同比增速较去年年初显著下滑，但在工业企业主营业务收入增速显著下滑 、 利 润 额 增 速 处 于 负 增 长 情 况下，工业企业就业人数仍处于正增长说明目前我国就业环境还不错。

Oriental securities in recently a research report says,In the first eight months industrial enterprises above designated size all employees average number 8978. 50000 people,Accumulated year-on-year growth of 1. 3%.Although year-on-year growth is significant decline at the beginning of last year,But in the industrial enterprise advocate business wu income growth decline significantly / The amount of moisture in increasing speed in negative increase long affection condition,Industrial enterprise employment is still in the positive growth that at present our country employment environment is good.

　　不久前国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运也明确表示，今年以来中国的就业形势总体稳定，在经济运行中是区别于发达国家的一个突出的亮点。

Not long ago, a spokesman for the national bureau of statistics news filled to transport also made clear,Since this year China's employment situation overall stability,In the economic operation of the developed countries is different from a prominent window.

　　盛来运说：“世界经济复苏缓慢的一个重要的拖累因素是失业居高 不 下 ， 如 美 国9月 份 失 业 率 是7 .8%，欧元区8月份平均失业率达到11.4%，这些国家虽然经济在复苏，但是一种无就业的复苏”。

Cheng to transport said:"The world economic recovery slow an important drag factor is high in unemployment not down , Such as beautiful kingdom of September lost industry rate is 7. 8%,The eurozone average unemployment reached 11.4% in August,These countries although economy in recovery,But a no employment of recovery".

　

　原因 reason

　　劳动力供需和结构变化 Labor supply and demand and structural change

　　根据国家统计局上周公布的数据，三季度国内生产总值(G D P )以7 .4%的增速创下年内新低，这也是中 国 经 济 增 速 连 续 第 七 个 季 度 下滑。然而，在经济下行过程中类似2008年底时的大批农民工失业返乡现象并没有出现。对此专家分析，劳动力供需和劳动力结构的变化、以及中西部地区经济增长的后发优势明显是重要原因。

According to the national bureau of statistics data released last week,The third quarter gross domestic product(G D P )With 7. 4% of its fastest growth in a year low,This is also in the countries to increase speed even continue the seventh season degrees glide.however,In the economic descending process similar to 2008 at the end of the year of a large number of migrant workers return unemployment phenomenon and did not appear.This expert analysis,Supply and demand of labor and labor force structure changes/And parts of the Midwest economic growth is the important reason that the obvious advantage of backwardness.

　　东方证券分析师邵宇说，企业的用人需求跟经济增速密切相关，经济增速下降过程中企业用人需求逐步恶化。但2010年以来我国劳动力市场供需关系彻底改变，劳动力供过于求的状况一去不复返。在劳动力市场供不应求情况下，企业用人需求一定程度的下降不会对就业市场产生明显的影响。

Oriental securities analyst ShaoYu said,Enterprise employment demand is closely related to economic growth,In the process of economic growth decline enterprise employing demand gradually deterioration.But in China since 2010 the Labour market supply and demand change,The status of the labor supply exceeds demand, never to return.In the Labour market demand exceeds supply situation,The enterprise needs a certain degree of decline in employment market will not have apparent effect.

　　对此，中国银行首席经济学家曹远征也持类似观点。他表示，过去相当大部分的劳动力的供应来自农村，但近几年随着农民收入的提高和其他方面的原因，农民工的供给开始明显不足。此外，曹远征认为，人 口 结 构 的 变 化 也 将 直 接 影 响 就业：“从第六次人口普查的结果来看，按过去的增长速度，应该明后年是新产生的劳动力和市场所需要的劳动力基本持平。”

this,The bank of China, chief economist CaoYuanZheng has a similar view.He said,The past is most of the supply of labor from the rural areas,But in recent years along with the improvement of the farmers' income and other factors,The supply of rural migrant workers began to obvious deficiency.In addition,CaoYuanZheng think,People mouth "structure of variable change will also direct joint shadow ring employment:"From the sixth time census results to see,According to the speed of growth in the past,Should side is a new produce labor and market need labor flat."

　　从区域经济发展看，中国中西部地区增长较快同样带动了新增就业。盛来运表示，中西部地区的经济增长速度虽然也是在回落，但前三季度工业增加值增长速度仍然在10%以上。大量劳动密集型产业由东部地区向中西部地区转移，这些地区再加上西部大开发和区域经济大发展的带动下，新增加了很多就业岗位。

See from the regional economic development,China in the Midwest is growing rapidly also contributed to the new employment.Cheng to transport said,The Midwest economic growth speed although is in fall,But the third quarter industrial added value growth rate is still in more than 10%.A large number of labor intensive industry by the eastern region to the central and western regions,These areas plus western development and regional economic development along the way,New increased a lot of jobs.

　　事实上，从农民工劳动力的专项资料调查来看，中西部地区的后发优势也比较明显：前三季度流向中西部地区的6个月以上外出农民工的增长速度，分别增长了5.5%和5 .6%，比东部地区要高4个百分点左右。

In fact,From peasant workers labor special material investigation to see,The Midwest region are obvious advantage of backwardness:The first three quarters to the Midwest 6 months above out the speed of growth in the migrant workers,Were increased by 5.5% and 6%,Than the eastern region should high 4%.

　　难题 problem

　　结构性矛盾仍存 Structural contradictions are still

　　尽管整体就业形势趋稳向好，但是记者通过采访发现，我国就业的结构性矛盾仍然存在，重点群体尤其是应届高校毕业生的就业形势依然严峻。

Although the overall employment situation stabilised better off,But the reporter through the interview found,Our country employment structural contradictions still exist,Focus groups especially fresh college graduates employment situation is still severe.

　　事实上，从各地就业市场情况看，“高级工短缺、蓝领工人走俏”的趋势越发明显。西安市的数据显示，具备职业资格五级(初级技能)、职业资格四级(中级技能)、职业资格三级(高级技能)的求职人员的求人倍率1 .17、1.72、2.09，求职难度与其所掌握的技能成反比。

In fact,From all around the employment market conditions to see,"Senior worker worker shortage/Blue-collar workers popular"The more obvious trend.Xi an data display,Have professional qualification category five(Primary skills)/Professional qualification level 4(Intermediate skills)/Professional qualification level 3(Advanced skills)The job applicant's ask for help ratio 1. 17/1.72/2.09,The difficulty of the job and mastering the skill is inversely proportional.

　　而与此相对的，是高校应届毕业生求职普遍困难。中国人力资源市场信息监测中心提供的数据显示，与去年同期和上季度相比，进入市场求职的人员中，应届高校毕业生增长幅度较大，而就业转失业人员有所减少：与去年同期相比，新成长失业青年的求职人数增加15 .8万人，其中应届高校毕业生增加了11 .9万人，增长20.1%。

And the relative,Is college graduates generally difficult to apply for a job.China's human resource market information monitoring center provides data display,With the same period last year compared to the previous quarter and,To enter the market to apply for a job in the personnel,Fresh university graduates growth to a larger extent,But the employment turn unemployed personnel has decreased:Compared with the same period last year,New growth unemployed youth cover increased 15. 80000 people,The fresh college graduates increased 90000 people,Growth of 20.1%.

　　“从今年我们北京大学的就业情况来看，无论是本科生还是研究生都比往年要困难。”北京大学校长助理黄桂田介绍说。

"From this year we Beijing university employment situation,Both undergraduate or graduate student than usual to difficulties."Beijing university President assistant HuangGuiTian said.

　　另有近期的一份研究报告显示，硕士研究生的初次就业率已经连续两年低于本科生。北京师范大学研究生工作部研究人员周霞对《经济参考报》记者表示，近年来随着研究生招生规模的逐步扩大，研究生就业问题日益凸显，就业率与薪酬持续走低。

Another recent a research report,Master graduate student employment rate of the first consecutive two years less than undergraduates.Beijing normal university for postgraduate work ZhouXia researchers[Economic reference to]reporters,In recent years, with the scale of graduate student recruit students gradually enlarged,The employment problems of postgraduates is highlighted,The employment rate and salary keep falling.

　　重点高校尚且如此，从全国来看，情况也难乐观。2012年，年全国普通高校毕业生约680万人。曹远征表示，中国经济在未来很长一段过程中，毕业生就业难这样的结构性失业将是一个很重要的问题。

Universities do so,nationally,Situation is difficult to optimistic.In 2012,,Years national ordinary university graduates of about 6.8 million people.CaoYuanZheng said,China's economy in the future a long process,Graduates' employment such structural unemployment will is a very important problem.

　　对此，天则经济研究所学术委员会主席张曙光对《经济参考报》记者表示，当前招工难和就业难的问题同时存在。大学生就业困难，其工资也不高，甚至出现大学生与农民工竞争的现象。既说明教育的失误，也说明就业市场的扭曲。

this,Day is economic research institute of academic committee chairman zhang shuguang,[Economic reference to]reporters,The current recruitment difficult and the problem of employment exist at the same time.College students' employment difficulties,The salary is not high also,College students and migrant workers even appear the phenomenon of competition.Which means education mistakes,Also shows that the distortion of the job market.

　

　趋势 trend

　　未来就业压力仍大 Future employment pressure is still large

　　考虑到就业属于经济增长的滞后指标，日后经济如果继续下行，企业的经营状况很可能对就业形成较大影响。

Considering the employment belongs to the economic growth of the lagging indicator,Future economic if continue to descending,The enterprise the management situation is likely to form a larger impact on employment.

　　中国银行国际金融研究所高级分析师周景彤对《经济参考报》记者表示，就业形势未来到底怎么样，完全取决于经济未来的状况。“从现在的经济我们判断来看，未来一段时间工业生产很可能会从去库存化转向再库存化，而不是从去库存化向去产能化转变，如果说从去库存化向去产能化转变，就业问题马上会凸显。”

The bank of China international finance research institute senior analysts to ZhouJingTong[Economic reference to]reporters,Employment situation future exactly,All depends on the future economic situation."From the current economic we judge to see,The next period of time from industrial production is likely to inventory turn again to inventory turn,Rather than from to inventory turn to go to productivity transition,If from to inventory turn to go to productivity transition,The employment problem will highlight."

　　根据国家统计局数据，今年8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润同比下降6 .2%。这已经是从4月份起我国规模以上工业企业连续第5个月出现同比负增长了。作为宏观经济的重要组成部门，工业表 现 不 佳 必 然 会 影 响 整 体 经 济 情况，尤其在当前经济下行压力仍然较大的情况下，还可能对就业产生影响。

According to the national bureau of statistics data,In August of this year,The national industrial enterprises above designated size realized profit year-on-year drop 6. 2%.This is from April up our country industrial enterprises above designated size for the fifth consecutive month appear negative year-on-year.As a macroscopic economy important constituent ministries,Industrial table is not beautiful will however will shadow ring the whole body by the economic situation,Especially in the current economy is still greater downward pressure of the situation,May also impact on employment.

　　汇丰银行宏观经济分析师孙君玮认为，企业利润的持续收缩表明制造业企业面临很大困难，如果短期内内需不能有效提振来抵消外需不足的影响，那么这将对企业的用工需求产生负面影响。“就业数据本身是滞后指标，而近期的数据和报道都表明劳动力市场面临的压力在增加，比如汇丰制造业P MI中的就业分项指数已经连续7个月处于收缩区间，此情形只在金融危机期间出现过。”

HSBC bank macroeconomic analysts SunJunWei think,The steady shrinkage of corporate profits that manufacturing enterprises are facing great difficulties,If the short-term domestic demand can not effectively boost to counteract the effects of overseas market demand shortage,So this will to enterprise's labor demand have a negative impact."Employment data is itself a lagging indicator,But recent data and reports show that Labour market pressure on the increase,Such as HSBC manufacturing P MI of employment subentry index has continuous seven months in shrinkage interval,This situation only in financial crisis occurred during."

　　事实上，即使在今年以来经济加速增长的中西部地区，四季度就业压力也难言减轻。陕西省人社厅相关负责人介绍说：“今年以来，陕西省经济下行压力较大，实体经济的有效信贷需求下降信号明显，中小企业的盈利能力和吸纳就业人口的能力降低，部分企业特别是劳动密集型中小企业生产经营困难，企业用工需求趋缓。加之今年陕西省高校毕业生人数达到29 .6万人，规模为历年之最，就业形势更加严峻，劳动力供大于求的矛盾仍将长期存在。”

In fact,Even in since this year the accelerated growth of economy of the Midwest,Four quarter employment pressure and reduce the difficult.Shaanxi people club hall relevant controller introduces said:"Since this year,Shaanxi economy large downward pressure,The real economy of the effective credit demand down signal obviously,Small and medium-sized enterprise's profit ability and the ability to absorb employment population to reduce,Part of the enterprise especially labor-intensive small and medium enterprises have difficulty in production and management,Enterprise employee needs to slow down.Shaanxi province this year and the number of college graduates to 29. 60000 people,Scale is the warmest,More severe employment situation,The contradiction between labor supply exceeds demand will exist for a long time."