黄伟（独立经济学家）

working（Independent economists）

　　近来，人民币国际化佳音频传。前有6月初世界第三大货币日元与人民币直接兑换，后有7月11日澳大利亚副总理表示将谈判世界第五大货币澳元与人民币直接兑换事项，还有深圳前海试验区人民币双向贷款的风生水起。面对人民币成为国际硬通货的诱人前景，许多人恨不得把人民币装上轮子加速挺进，以便早日将美元取而代之。笔者认为，人民币应该国际化，但现阶段只能有限国际化。

recent，RMB internationalization sex-abuse good tidings。In early June before the world's third largest monetary yen and the renminbi exchange directly，July 11, after Australia's deputy prime minister said will be the world's fifth largest currency negotiations with RMB exchange matters a directly，And shenzhen the sea before the two-way loans experimental wind。Face the prospect of the international hard currency become attractive，Many people very anxious to RMB loaded on wheels accelerate advance，As soon as possible so that the dollar instead。The author thinks that，The yuan should be internationalized，But at this stage can only limited internationalization。

　　从目前来看，已有尼日利亚、马来西亚、韩国和菲律宾等国将人民币作为储备货币。截至今年6月，还有白俄罗斯、印尼、阿根廷等近20个国家与我国签署了货币互换协议。可以预见，随着美国债务危机和欧洲债务危机的不断恶化，世界各国对人民币国际化的外在需求还会进一步发展。然而，在一浪高于一浪的人民币国际化呼声中，笔者却认为人民币现阶段不能全面国际化，这是由中国国际竞争力的现状和经济可持续发展的需要决定的。

For now，For Nigeria、Malaysia、South Korea and the Philippines and other countries will be RMB as a reserve currency。So far this year June，And belarus、Indonesia、Argentina and other nearly 20 countries and China signed the currency exchange agreement。Can foresee，As the United States and the European debt crisis the worsening of debt crisis，The world to the external demand of RMB internationalization will further development。however，In a wave of prep above a wave of the calls of RMB internationalization，The author thinks however RMB at this stage can't fully internationalization，This is by the China international competitiveness and sustainable economic development of the present situation of the need to decide。

　　一个国家的商品在世界市场所占份额越大，也就是说其有效生产力所支撑的国际竞争力越强，其货币被国际贸易中双方接受度就越高。随着中国世界工厂地位的巩固和国际贸易量的扩大，中国人和外国人在得到人民币之后都会更多用于购买中国商品，因此人民币国际化程度才不断提高。据央行副行长胡晓炼日前在“2012陆家嘴金融论坛”上透露，今年1~5月，在海关的进出口数据中使用人民币结算的已经占到了7%。在服务贸易的跨境收付中，人民币进行支付结算的大概占15%左右。

A country of commodities in the world market share is bigger，That is the effective productivity supported by the stronger international competitiveness，Its currency in international trade both parties to accept degree is higher。With China's world factory, the consolidation of the trade volume and international status of expanding，Chinese people and foreigners in the yuan will get after more used to buy Chinese goods，Therefore RMB internationalization degree to continuously improve。According to deputy central bank governor in a hu“2012 the lujiazui financial BBS”Disclosed on，1 ~ 5 month this year，In the import and export customs data use the RMB has accounted for 7%。In the service of cross-border trade in the receipt and payment，The payments and settlement of account for around 15%。

　　其实，我们必须清醒地认识到，人民币作为国际交易货币的发展势头虽然喜人，但要支撑人民币充分发挥国际投资货币和国际储备货币的功能还是远远不够的。举个例子，在笔者考察过的缅甸东北部边境地区，中国商品市场占有率极高，从电器、服装到日用化工产品乃至矿泉水，几乎涵盖社会生活方方面面。中国与这些地区的双边贸易之中，人民币结算比例起码达到90%，因此在当地美元难觅踪迹，甚至缅甸本国货币都被人民币淹没。在这些地区，人民币不仅是国际交易货币，而且充分发挥着国际投资货币和国际储备货币的功能。由此可见，作为一种真正国际化的硬通货币，首先必须有交易货币功能的充分发展，才能有投资货币和储备货币功能的全面跟进，而交易货币功能能否充分发展，取决于有效生产力所支撑的国际竞争力能否提高。

In fact，We must wake up to，International trading currency RMB as the momentum of development of although gratifying，But to support to the full play to international investment money and international reserve currency function or not enough。For example，In this article investigates the northeastern Burma border，China commodity market share is extremely high，From electric equipment、Clothing to daily chemical products and mineral water，Covers almost all aspects of social life。China and the area of the bilateral trade，RMB settlement ratio at least 90%，So in the local dollar signs tapes，Even their own money is RMB Burma submerged。In these areas，The yuan is not only the international trading currency，And give full play to the international investment money and international reserve currency function。This shows，As a truly international currency hard currency，First must have traded currencies the full development of the function，To have investment money and reserve currency function fully follow up，And traded currencies function could fully development，Effective productivity depends on the support of the international competitiveness can raise。

　　英镑在19世纪70年代成为国际储备货币的基础，是1870年英国国际贸易额占世界贸易总额的37%，而目前中国国际贸易额只占全世界的20%，差距还很大。如果在中国国际竞争力尚未占据绝对优势的情况下过早全面放开外汇管制，人民币将会因世界各国避险需求旺盛而大幅升值，还可能因为国际金融投机资本横行无阻而剧烈波动，这些都会严重影响中国可持续发展能力。因此，中国经济和对外贸易还需要外汇管制的保护才能继续健康发展。作为防范金融风险的优秀门神，资本项目兑换限制现在还不能轻易撤换。

Pounds in the 1870 s became the foundation of the international reserve currency，In 1870 the British international trade accounts for 37% of total world trade，And at present China international trade accounts for only 20% of the world，Lags behind。If the international competitiveness in China has not been overwhelmingly early release of comprehensive foreign exchange control，Yuan will hedge demand for all countries in the world and to rise sharply，May also because the international financial speculative capital and sharp fluctuations run or shine，These will seriously affect the ability of sustainable development in China。so，China's economy and foreign trade still need the control of foreign exchange to continue to protect the healthy development。As a guard against financial risks of outstanding goalkeeper，Capital projects exchange restrictions still cannot easily replaced。

　　在中国国际竞争力还不足以支撑人民币成为国际强势交易货币的现阶段，侈谈人民币全面国际化是不切实际的。正确道路应该是理性推进有限国际化，满足自身避险需要，并尽量承担一定的国际责任，同时继续埋头提高我们的有效生产力。

In the China international competitiveness was not enough to support the international trade of currency become strong at this stage，RMB internationalization is unrealistic time overall。Correct road should be rational promote international Co., LTD，A hedge their own needs，And to assume certain international responsibilities，At the same time we continue with the increase of the effective productivity。