金慧瑜

JinHuiYu

　　国际油价连跌三周的态势在11月6日扭转，而抱持成品油调价心态的油客可能要继续观望一段时间了。

International oil prices even fell three weeks of situation in November 6 torsion,And took a refined oil price adjustment mentality oil guest is likely to continue to look for some time.

　　根据卓创资讯，11月6日三地原油移动变化率为-3.47%，生意社也给出-3.51%的数据。但同日的布伦特油价和WTI油价一反近期原油价格持续下跌的态势，其中布伦特在6日涨3.10%，达111.07美元/桶。迪拜和辛塔油价也分别上涨1.69%和3.96%，达到105.10美元/桶和110.00美元/桶。

According to zhuo and information,On November 6,, hong crude oil mobile rate for 3.47%,Business clubs also given - 3.51% of the data.But on the same day the brent oil and WTI prices a reverse recent crude oil prices continued to drop the situation,The brent in 6 rose 3.10%,Up to us $111.07 / barrel.Dubai and symplectic tower oil prices also up 1.69% and 3.96% respectively,Reached $105.10 / barrel and $110.00 / barrel.

　　市场认为，国际油价后势难以判断，因而国内开启成品油调价窗口存在较大不确定性。

Market think,International oil prices situation after it was difficult to tell,So open domestic refined oil price adjustment window there is a big uncertainty.

　　国泰君安证券分析报告认为，前几日国际原油下跌，是因飓风“桑迪”过后，美国可能紧急释放取暖油库存的消息强烈打压了石油市场。

Guotai junan securities analysis report think,Several days ago international crude oil fell,For hurricane"sandy"after,The United States may emergency release heating the oil inventory news strong crack down on the petroleum market.

　　但11月6日国际油价的上升，则和市场对奥巴马连任的预期相关。一名长期关注石油行业的分析师告诉记者，奥巴马一贯采取宽松的经济政策，美元贬值会对大宗原材料维持高位有较大支撑作用。

But on November 6, international oil prices,The market and to Obama reappointment expected related.A long-term focus on petroleum industry analysts told reporters,Obama has always take loose economic policy,The dollar will remain high for bulk raw materials has great support effect.

　　另有观点认为，国际原油价格仍将出现震荡行情。随着飓风过后冬季能源需求的增长和库存供给的下降，石油价格增长偏强，但欧洲经济走势和美国对中东政策将是决定后期价格走势的重要因素。“如果奥巴马在连任后对中东采取强硬政策，国际油价无疑会上涨。”

Another view,The international crude oil prices will still volatile market.After hurricane with winter energy demand growth and stock supply drop,The price of oil partial strong growth,But European economic trends and the United States for the Middle East policy will be decided late price trend of the important factors."If Obama is in after the term for the Middle East tough policy,International oil prices will undoubtedly rise."

　　因此，之前被视为“板上钉钉”的国内成品油调价，可能因难以突破-4%的变化率而新生变数。

therefore,Before be regarded as"Board nailing"Domestic refined oil price adjustment,May be difficult to break - 4% of the rate of change and new variables.

　　此前市场普遍预计，三地原油变化率最快可能在本周五“破四”，而国内成品油调价窗口在下周就有可能打开，不少加油站甚至已经做好了调价准备。上海地区不少加油站下调93号汽油零售价已有一段时间，有些加油站是全日降价0.2元，有些则从晚7点到早7点以7.75元/升的价格来吸引加油客。

After the market generally expected,Three fastest rate of crude oil may be on Friday"Break four",And the domestic refined oil price adjustment window in the next week it is possible to open,Many gas station has even ready to price adjustment.The Shanghai area many gas station cut 93 gasoline retail price for a period of time,Some gas stations is diurnal price 0.2 yuan,Some are from 7 PM to 7 points to 7.75 yuan/liter oil price to attract customer.

　　根据油客网提供的数据，截至11月5日，上海市共有加油站1070个，其中低于指导价格的加油站187个，占总数的17%，降价幅度在0.02～0.5元之间。这比国庆前的促销力度加大了不少：截至9月26日，上海地区低于93号汽油指导价的加油站为142个，降价幅度在0.01～0.5元之间。

According to the oil KeWang to provide the data,By November 5,,There are 1070 gas stations in Shanghai,The price below the guidance of 187 gas stations,Accounted for 17% of the total,Price range in 0.02 ~ 0.5 yuan between.This is National Day before the promotion efforts to strengthen a lot:By September 26,,The Shanghai area less than 93 gasoline prices gas station for 142 a,Price range in 0.01 ~ 0.5 yuan between.

　　北京地区搞促销的加油站数量也有不少增加。油客网数据显示，截至11月5日，北京市共有加油站1183个，其中低于92号汽油指导价格的加油站有314个，占总数的27%，降价幅度在0.05～0.76元之间。而在国庆前的9月12日，北京低于指导价格的加油站占总数的17%，降价幅度在0.05～0.6元之间。

Beijing area promotion gas station quantity also have a lot of increase.Oil KeWang data display,By November 5,,Beijing has 1183 gas stations,The less than 92 gasoline price guidance station has 314,Accounted for 27% of the total,Price range in 0.05 ~ 0.76 yuan between.In National Day before the September 12,,Beijing is lower than the price of guidance station accounted for 17% of the total,Price range in 0.05 ~ 0.6 yuan between.

　　不过，在宏观需求未能有实质性回升的情况下，加油站的促销似乎见效并不大。上海地区一名加油站工作的负责人告诉记者，由于他们的加油站在公路附近，为了吸引货车，他们从两个月前就开始降低柴油价格，但现在又将7.54元/升调回了7.92元/升。“两个月下来效果不大，没促销前一个月柴油销量是20万升，促销后也只有40多万升，好的时候最起码50万升。”

but,In the macroscopic demand failed to have substantial resilience of the case,Gas station sales promotion seems to have effect is not big.Shanghai a job in a gas station of the person in charge told reporters,Because of their gas station near the highway,In order to attract truck,They from two months ago began to reduce diesel prices,But now and will be 7.54 yuan/liter back to 7.92 yuan/liter."Two months down to little effect,No promotion one month before the diesel sales is 200000 liters,After the promotion only 40 more than litres,Good at least 500000 liters."