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浙江现象的启示--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-24

  据报道,浙江600家知名民营企业近日联名上书向当地政府求助,恳请政府帮助它们渡过因银行催贷、抽贷而面临的难关。

According to the report,Zhejiang 600 well-known private enterprise recently signed a letter to the local government for help,Will the government to help them through bank loans for push、A loan and face difficulties。

  “浙江现象”与“日本病”高度相似,即实体企业利润空间下滑而投身于资产投机风潮,一些金融机构的宽松放贷环境推波助澜,造成经济地区性的高杠杆化与泡沫化,一旦经济周期发生逆转或经济增长出现波动,就会出现金融风险。

“Zhejiang phenomenon”and“Japan disease”Highly similar to,That is the entity enterprise profit space down go into the assets speculative boom,Some financial institutions of loose lending to stoke the environment,Cause economic regional high leveraged and turning into a bubble-and,Once the economy cycle reversed or economic growth fluctuate,There will be a financial risk。

  曾经的“温州模式”,是发达的私营经济主要从事制造业与国际贸易。但是在2002年,中国房价开始上涨,一批精明的浙江人开始以投机炒房谋取暴利,这种投机风潮在后来若干年越演越烈。因为随着生产成本的不断上

Once the“Wenzhou model”,The private economy is developed mainly engaged in manufacturing and international trade。But in 2002,China's housing prices started to rise,A group of smart people in zhejiang began to speculate with ChaoFang seek profits,This kind of speculative boom in later years turned ugly。Because the cost of producing the constantly with

  涨以及市场逐渐饱和,实体企业的利润空间逐渐下滑。与此相反,资产价格不断上涨,由于杠杆作用,投机收益实属暴利。这种此消彼长的趋势吸引这些实体企业从事投机活动,就连那些老老实实做产品的人因为一年利润还不如炒几套房子赚钱,也参与其中,出现劣币驱逐良币的现象。

Rise and market gradually saturated,Entity enterprise profit margins decline gradually。Contrary to the,Asset prices,Due to leverage,Speculation is income windfall profits。This kind of trend away attracted to these entity enterprise engaged in speculative activities,Even those who honestly do products for a year as profits a few houses fry make money,Have participated in,A good money from currency in the phenomenon。

  这种“生财术”在资产价格上升周期比较安全,在若干年内,该地区的金融机构放贷时在风险审查方面比较宽松,但信贷成本较高,这就出现了该地区金融机构盈利能力很强的现象。逐利的金融机构间的竞争,使得放贷在抵押或担保审查方面比较宽松,尽管实体企业难以承受如此高的资金成本,但大部分挪用于资产投资,如炒房、圈地等,从而出现金融资产与金融负债交叉发展的趋势,即资产价格上涨推动了投机借贷的需求,而贷款大量供给又刺激了资产价格上涨,这彻底改变了货币流向与经济结构。

this“Wealth-generating art”In the property price rise cycle comparison is safe,In several years,The region's financial institutions when lending in risk reviewed more comfortable,But the credit costs more,It appeared the region financial institutions profitability strong phenomenon。The profit the competition between financial institutions,In the mortgage or guarantee that lenders reviewed more comfortable,Although entity enterprise to bear such a high cost of capital,But most of the appropriation in investment assets,If ChaoFang、Enclosure, etc,Thus presents financial assets and financial liabilities the trend of the development of the cross,Namely asset prices push the speculative demand of lending,And loan a large supply and exciting asset prices to rise,This thoroughly changed the monetary flow and economic structure。

  由此可见,此类所谓中小企业融资难是个伪命题,关键是融资的去向存在问题,如果仅仅用于生产或设备投资,企业可能不需要融资或者说融资不会有困难。但是,大部分企业的融资流向了资产投机。这意味着市场存在大量“过剩资金”流向了资产领域,对这些企业而言,背负过高的杠杆以及过高的资金成本,甚至有 “短贷长投”现象。一旦经济周期发生逆转,由于固定资产流动性差,投机活动就会出现资金紧张的状况,而金融机构在这个时期往往采取惜贷等紧缩措施,企业资金链断裂的风险就会骤增。而浙江地区发明的“互保联保”模式,在经济安全期可以放大贷款能力,但是在债务紧缩期,则会出现系统性风险。这种担保制度本质上是积极放贷的产物,而其事后追偿的特性使得企业在提供担保的时候降低了风险意识。

This shows,These so-called financing difficulty is a false statement,The key is to the financing of problem,If only for the production or equipment investment,Enterprise may not need to finance or financing will have no difficulty。but,Most of the assets of the enterprise financing flow to the speculation。This means that there are lots of market“Excess funds”Flow field of assets,For these companies,Bear high leverage and high cost of capital,Even has “Short loan long throw”phenomenon。Once the economy cycle reversed,Fixed assets due to poor liquidity,Speculative activities will appear the status of funds,And in this period financial institutions often take other tightening measures arisen,Enterprise capital chain of fracture risk will be increased。And zhejiang area of invention“Mutual insurance LianBao”mode,In the economic safety period can magnify the loan ability,But in debt crunch period,Can appear systemic risk。This guarantee system in essence is the product of positive lending,And the characteristics of the recovery after the event that enterprise in to provide guarantee time reduce risk consciousness。

  浙江现在遭遇的和日本当年企业积极参与的“生财术”高度类似,即通过银行借款投入股票和地产(土地)投资,而资产价格的上涨又提高了借款能力,呈现螺旋式上涨的泡沫危机。而当时日本也存在产能过剩导致利润下滑,金融自由化等市场条件。因此,中国当前仍然需要严格限制资产投机,加强金融监管,防止经济泡沫化与杠杆过高的现象出现。

Zhejiang now encounter and Japan enterprises to actively participate in“Wealth-generating art”Highly similar,That is, through the bank loan invested in stocks and real estate(land)investment,And asset prices and also to improve the ability to borrow,The rise of the present spiral foam crisis。At that time, Japan also exist in excess capacity falling profits,Financial liberalization and market conditions。so,China's current still need to strictly limit speculative assets,Strengthen financial supervision,To prevent the economy from turning into a bubble-and and leverage the phenomenon to appear too high。



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