本报记者 葛春晖

Our correspondent GeChunHui

　　去年底以来的三次降准、两次降息，意味着我国货币政策进入新一轮的放松周期。在“保增长”仍然任重道远的背景下，未来货币流动性保持适度宽松仍是大势所趋。但与次贷危机爆发后的那段时期相比，目前我国货币政策的经济背景、央行调控的基调以及货币政策实施的侧重点和有效性都发生了显著变化，彼时曾经的流动性极度泛滥场面将难以再现。

Since the end of the three down time、Two cuts，Means that China's monetary policy entering into a new round of relaxation cycle。in“The growth”Under the background of still a long-term task，The future money flow to keep a proper loose is still the trend of The Times。But with the subprime crisis after the outbreak of that period compared，At present our country economic background of monetary policy、The tone of the central bank to control and the emphasis of the monetary policy and effectiveness are varied significantly，At once liquidity would be difficult to reproduce extreme flood scene。

　　次贷危机2008年全面爆发后，我国GDP单季同比增速由当年二季度末的10.7%急速降至第四季度末的6.6%。CPI同比增速由2008年6月的7.1%一路下滑至年末的1.2%，2009年更是出现长达9个月连续负值。面对经济、物价形势的急转直下，国务院迅速将经济工作首要任务由2008年初的“防通胀、防过热”调整为“保增长、促内需”，财政货币政策也由年初的“稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策”逐步调整至11月的“积极扩张的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”。经过2008年下半年的5次降息、4次降准，2009年新增信贷总额高达9.6万亿，较2008年几乎翻倍，2009年末M2同比增速高达27.68%。与此同时，银行间市场资金利率迅速跌至历史低位，7天期回购利率在2009年整个上半年都稳定在1%以下。一时间，社会经济各个层面的流动性充裕程度令各方大呼“泛滥”，直至2011年货币政策转向“稳健”，大力回收流动性，资金面才逐渐回到相对平衡状态。

The subprime crisis in 2008 after the outbreak of comprehensive，Year-on-year growth in China for GDP by 10.7% at the end of the second quarter in rapid fall to 6.6% at the end of the fourth quarter。CPI up by June 2008 growth of 7.1% to 1.2% at the end of all the way down，2009 there is continuous negative for as long as nine months。In the face of economic、The price situation of a sudden turn，The state council will rapidly economic work primary task at the beginning of the year by 2008“Against inflation、Prevent overheating”Adjustment for“The growth、Promote domestic demand”，Fiscal and monetary policy by also at the beginning of the year“Prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy”Adjust gradually to November“Positive fiscal policy and the expansion of the moderate loose monetary policy”。After 2008 years second half of the year to cut interest rates five times、4 times drop must，In 2009, the total amount of new credit as high as 9.6 trillion，A 2008 nearly doubled，By the end of 2009 M2 year-on-year growth rate as high as 27.68%。At the same time，Interbank market funds rate rapid fall to historic lows，7 days buyback period in 2009 in the first half of the interest rates are stable under 1%。time，Social economy of all aspects of ample liquidity to the big parties called the degree“flood”，Until 2011 to monetary policy“steady”，Strong recovery liquidity，The financing side it gradually back to the relative balance。

　　与上述时期对比，当前影响我国流动性整体格局的各项因素均有所不同。

The above period and contrast，The current effect on our country's whole pattern liquidity the various factors are different。

　　首先，从经济、通胀背景来看，未来我国货币政策仍有继续放松的必要和条件，但空间相对有限。经济方面，今年第二季度我国GDP增速跌至7.6%，创下近3年最低单季增幅。由于解决欧债问题的根本方案依然难寻，人口红利接近拐点等因素，未来我国经济增长还将面临诸多考验，需要货币政策继续为“稳增长”保驾护航。通胀方面，6月份我国CPI同比增幅回落至2.2%，且第三季度都有望保持下行，这为货币政策进一步放松免除了后顾之忧。不过，考虑到经济调结构意味着难免要牺牲部分领域的产值，而且二季度GDP环比增速已经出现回升，“保增长”措施仍将有度，加之物价有望在年底之前开始反弹，出现CPI同比意义上的通缩的可能性较小，货币政策空间因此受限。

first，From the economic、Inflation background to see，The future of our monetary policy is still necessary conditions and relax，But the space is relatively limited。economic，The second quarter this year's GDP growth in China fell from 7.6% to，Nearly three years for a minimum amplitude。Due to solve the debt the root of the problem solution still is hard to find，Demographic dividend close to a turning point, and other factors，Future economic growth in China will also faces many test，Need to continue for monetary policy“Steady growth”escort。inflation，June CPI year-on-year rate of increase in our country dropped back to 2.2%，And the third quarter are all expected to keep to the downside，This for monetary policy further relax from trouble back at home。but，Considering the economic structure means that is inevitable to sacrifice of some areas of value，And the second quarter GDP growth has rebounded in November，“The growth”Measures will still regularly，And the price is expected to be started to rebound before the end of the year，Appear in the sense of deflation CPI up less likely，Monetary policy space so limited。

　　其次，去年11月以来，央行货币政策始终坚持以“稳健”为基调，适时适度进行预调微调，而且今年两次降准的时点均晚于市场预期，信贷增速也较为平缓，显示管理层对于放松流动性的态度比较谨慎。究其原因，一方面可能是管理层认为目前经济增长符合目标区间，而且上半年政策微调下，新增贷款、M2增速均显著回升，因此不必急于加大放松力度；另一方面，如果追究两、三年前炒作之风盛行、通胀快速反弹等问题的根源，货币超发难脱干系。考虑到前车之鉴以及货币政策的时滞效应，适当控制货币投放节奏可以避免把“预调微调”演变为“超调”。

second，Since last November，The central bank's monetary policy has always adhered to“steady”For fundamental key，Timely and measurable under attack for fine-tuning，And two times this year came must points of the late in the market are expected，Credit growth is relatively smooth，Show the attitude of the liquidity management to relax more cautious。Investigate its reason，On the one hand may be thought that the present management with economic growth target range，In the first half and fine-tuning，New loans、M2 growth were significantly to bounce back，So don't have to rush to increase efforts to relax；On the other hand，If be investigated for two、Three years ago the hype is in vogue、Inflation fast rebound and the root of the problem，Currency threaten to take off the blame。Considering the mistakes and the time lag effect of monetary policy，Proper control of the money on the rhythm can avoid“Presetters fine-tuning”Evolution for“overshoot”。

　　第三，货币政策逐步从偏重数量型调控向更多运用价格型调控转变，对流动性的影响更多依赖市场化途径。从美国等发达国家经验来看，在成熟的利率市场化环境下，利率政策对于流动性的影响比准备金政策更柔和。今年以来我国利率市场化改革取得较大进展，相应地，货币政策调控也显露出更倾向于使用公开市场中标利率、存贷款基准利率等价格型工具的迹象，而准备金率更多是用于对冲外汇占款负增或低增。

The third，Monetary policy from lay particular stress on quantity control gradually to more use of price change regulation，The influence of the liquidity to depend more on market way。From the United States and other developed countries experience，In a mature interest rate marketization environment，The influence of interest rate policy for liquidity than reserve policy softer。Since this year a market-oriented interest rate reform in China have made great progress，accordingly，Monetary policy also revealed more tend to use the open market interest rates、The benchmark interest rates of price signs of tools，And reserve ratio is more used to hedge against combines negative increased foreign exchange or low increase。

　　最后，货币政策更加有效，超调风险降低。从2003年开始，外生流动性过剩问题导致基础货币长期被动投放，货币调控的被动特征也使得政策效果很容易被放大。而2011年第四季度以来，随着国际收支趋于平稳、人民币单边升值预期发生逆转，基础货币被动投放格局终于被打破。在货币供给更加可控的背景下，货币政策对流动性的影响力得到强化，市场资金面出现超预期波动性可能性随之降低。

finally，Monetary policy more effective，Overshoot the risk。From 2003 to，Exogenous liquidity surplus of base money lead to long-term passive resources，Monetary control of passive feature also makes the policy effect is very easy to be amplified。And since the fourth quarter of 2011，Along with the international balance of payments tend to be stable、The yuan appreciation expectations unilateral reverse，The base currency passive on the pattern was finally broken。In the money supply more controllable background，Monetary policy on liquidity influence strengthened，Market volatility in the financing side than expected possibility decreases。

　　总体来看，经济下行压力、物价逐月回落、外汇占款增长趋势性放缓背景下，下半年货币政策预调微调力度有望加大，进一步降息、降准依然可期。但考虑到央行调控的主动性增强，货币政策指挥棒更加有效，整体流动性将难以再现超预期宽松局面，银行间市场资金利率出现剧烈波动的可能性也较小。

overall，Economy downward pressure、Prices dropped from month to month、The gap growth slowing trend of foreign exchange background，The second half of monetary policy is expected to increase efforts to fine-tune under attack，Cut interest rates further、Drop must still can be expected。But considering the central bank to control the initiative of enhancement，Monetary policy baton more effective，Overall liquidity will be hard to reproduce than expected loose situation，Interbank market funds rate appear the possibility of violent fluctuation is lesser also。