近期A股市场走势持续疲弱，即使一个月内两次降息的利好刺激也无济于事，上证综指一度离2132点的今年初低点仅一步之遥。原因之一是上半年，尤其是二季度的经济基本面过于低迷，反映在上市公司业绩上，中上游周期股“成群结队”下跌，以及半年报大幅预降、预亏的“地雷股”层出不穷。

Recently A shares continued weak market trends，Even if a month of two cuts good stimulation also of no help，The Shanghai composite index from 2132 points at low earlier this year only one step away。One reason is that the first half of the year，Especially in the second quarter of economic fundamentals are too low，Reflected in the performance of listed companies，Reaches of cycle“Trooped in”fall，And half annals greatly the drop、Deficit represents“Mines shares”Emerge in endlessly。

　　然而，不容忽视的是，自证监会主席郭树清上任后，在今年启动了新一轮资本市场改革，内容涉及扩大机构投资者队伍、新股发行、券商创新、上市公司分红、退市等多个方面。这些举措由点及面、由表及里、相互叠加，将给资本市场发展带来新的制度红利。对此，也有不少资深市场人士寄予厚望，甚至喊出了“第二次股改”行情即将到来。

however，Is not allow to ignore，Since the securities regulatory commission chairman guo shortly after taking office，In this year launched its latest capital market reform，Content involves expanding institutional investor team、New shares、Brokers innovation、Listed company share out bonus、Retreat city, etc。These measures by point and face、youbiaojili、Stack with each other，Will give capital market development to bring new system dividends。this，There are many senior market people expected to do that，Even Shouting“The second number”Market is coming。

　　我们该如何看待这些因素？A股市场因此将如何起舞？为此，申银万国证券市场研究总监桂浩明先生做客“上证演播室”，与本报记者一起探讨这个问题。

How should we view these factors？The A share market will therefore how to dance？For this，Shenyin &wanguo securities market research director Mr. GuiHaoMing guest“'s Shanghai studio”，And our reporter to discuss the problem。

经济底更多取决于宏观政策 The bottom of the economy depends on more macro policies

　　主持人：二季度我国GDP同比增速下降到了7.6%，这是近10年来仅高于2008年金融危机时期6.6%的季度低点。现在不少机构认为二季度GDP是全年谷底，而这关系到A股市场能否走出底部阴影。事情真的会如大家所愿吗？

The host：In China in the second quarter GDP growth rate dropped to 7.6% year-on-year，This is nearly 10 years just above 2008 financial crisis period 6.6% of the quarter low。Now many institutions in the second quarter of the year that GDP bottom，And this relationship to the A share market can out of the bottom shadows。Things will really as you wish？

　　桂浩明：是的，目前影响市场最关键的还是实体经济方面的信息。我们首先关注的是PPI，因为制造者价格指数是直接和企业进价有关，这个数据是负的，说明企业效益还在下降。第二，我们关心的是进出口数据，这次进出口仍有8%左右的涨幅，但是仔细分析，出口要强于进口，说明国内需求不旺。前者反应的是生产，后者反映的是国民需求。还有一个是GDP指标，这次7.6%是连续第六个季度下降，并且是逐月下降，所以这个数据给了大家很深的印象。

GuiHaoMing：yes，At present the most key or affect the market economy information。We first concern is PPI，Because maker price index is direct and enterprise purchase price, relevant，This data is negative，That enterprise benefit is falling。The second，We are concerned about the import and export data，The import and export still has about 8% of the increase，But careful analysis，Export than imports，That domestic demand is not busy。The former reaction is manufacturing，The latter reflects the national requirements。Another is a GDP index，The 7.6% is a quarter for the sixth consecutive decline，And is down from month to month，So the data to everyone deep impression。

　　我们认为二季度经济可能并没有见底，那么三季度数据会不会见底呢？从PPI指数来看，我们认为至少在7月份不会真的见底，所以这方面对市场的影响是很大的。因此上游行业股票大跌，因为需求不振，而没有需求供应再多也只能是降价处理；再比如说企业效益下滑，导致大家对上市公司业绩的预期越来越差。还有大家对整个下半年经济走势比较谨慎，觉得GDP数据客观上反映了国家的经济活力。现在来看，今年经济面有点偏冷，这个大环境下各行各业都不能完全不受到影响。

We think the second quarter economic may not see bottom，So will not meet with the third quarter data？PPI index to see from，We think that at least in the July won't really see the bottom，So this face market influence is very big。So the stock drop industry，Because of demand，And no more supply demand also can be to depreciate processing；Then for example enterprise benefit to slide，Cause everyone to the performance of listed companies expected more and more worse。And all of the second half of the whole economy trends more cautiously，Think GDP data objectively reflect the country's economic vitality。Now come to，This year economic face a little slants cold，The environment all walks of life is not fully not affected。

　　主持人：这么说来，二季度实体经济没有见底，股市同样也不会见底，但不少投资者还是很期待“双底”，或者说“双拐”出现。您认为未来三个月有没有见底的可能，大概会出现在什么时候？

The host：so，In the second quarter of the entity economy did not see the bottom，The stock market also won't see the end，But many investors is looking forward to it“Double bottom”，or“ShuangGuai”appear。Do you think that the next three months have seen at the end of may，Probably will appear at what time？

　　桂浩明：从目前数据来看，没有理由在7月份见底。而8月份、9月份能否见底取决于两方面因素，一个是宏观经济的调控。之前调控力度加大有了一些效果，如7月份新增信贷至少到目前为止，四大行环比是增加了一倍，而以前这个都是到最后几天才放的。这是否表示降息之后一些信贷需求刺激了起来，宏观政策起到了作用。另外也取决于各种环境，包括欧美经济，如欧元区会不会再出什么问题，而这有不确定性。我们现在认为7月份还很难见到双底，至于8月份或者是9月份能否起来，更多还是取决于宏观政策。

GuiHaoMing：From the current data to see，No reason to see bottom in July。And in August、In September, the two aspects can see depends on factors，A macro economic control。Before some efforts to strengthen control effect，In July as new credit at least so far，Four big line annulus is doubled，And this is before the release of the last few genius。Does this mean that some credit demand stimulus after cut interest rates up，Macro policy played a role。Also depends on all kinds of environment，Including Europe and the United States economy，Such as the euro zone will not what's the problem，And this is the uncertainty。We now think that July is still hard to see the double bottom，As for August or September could rise，More still depend on macro policy。

　　目前来看有两点值得关注，第一是政策已经开始调整了。中国过去从出台政策到见效时间周期大概在三个月到半年，如果这个规律继续有效，那么三个月见效期也就是到今年三季度，应该不会特别远。第二，由于现在是市场经济占主导地位，所以政策调控的影响不可能一杆见影。况且我们的政策管得了国内但管不了国外，欧美经济不理想，特别是欧债危机有卷土重来可能，由外面传导过来的影响也需要预防。但有一点是肯定的，应该要有信心，因为政策毕竟在调整，虽然实体经济不确定性因素比较多，新的变量也比较多。

There are two so far is remarkable，The first is the policy has begun to adjust。From China's past policy to effective time period in about three months to half a year，If this pattern continues effective，Then three months effective period also is to quarter this year，Should not special far。The second，Since it is the dominant market economy，So the effect of policy regulation may not be a stem see shadows。Besides our policy tube got home care but abroad，Europe and the United States economy is not ideal，Especially the debt crisis may have back，The influence of transmission by outside come also need to prevent。But one thing is sure，Should have the confidence，Because after all in the adjustment of the policy，Although entity economic uncertainty factors more，New variables is more also。

　权重板块走强只是短期行为 Weight plate go strong just short-term behavior

　　主持人：近日在大盘下探之际屡屡是权重股启动拉抬指数，而前期管理层不断说要扩大机构投资者，保险资金一个月内投资比例也增加了两个百分点，有分析人士说有“国家队”在吸纳。桂总对此有什么看法？

The host：Recently in the market dipped often is the weight shares start lift index，The management and continuously said to expand to institutional investors，Within a month of insurance capital investment proportion also increased by two percent，Analytic personage says there is“National team”In absorbing。So what do always guangxi opinion？

　　桂浩明：保险资金投资比例提高了两个百分点并不意味着保险资金进入了A股市场。实际上现在新发基金80%都是债券性基金，报道提到的保险资金900多亿基金投资我觉得应该都是债券型基金，股票性基金没有那么多，这当中的区别是很大的。对于所谓的国家队，实际上资金就是资金，只是达到了一定的量。如果没有足够的资金，哪怕你的身份再显贵也没有用。去年10月份开始汇金就增持银行股了，我不能说它没有效。现在的问题是，银行股过去大家都觉得投资价值很高，PB才一倍，但是始终没有人买，而那时还没有降息。其实大家对银行早就有一个悲观的预期，只是最近预期不断得到兑现，因此，就算汇金增持，银行股仍然是跌跌不休。在我看来，包括银行股在内的权重股调整，仍然是宏观经济基本面在市场上的一种客观反应。

GuiHaoMing：The insurance fund investment ratio enhanced two percent does not mean that insurance money into the A share market。There is in fact now new hair fund 80% bonds sexual fund，The report notes of insurance capital of more than $900 fund investment I think should be a bond fund，Stock sexual fund not that much，Among the difference between is very big。The so-called 'national team，In fact capital is money，Just reach the right amount。If there is not enough money，Even if your identity to magnates in it。In October last year began huijin is increasing bank stocks，I can't say it is not effective。The question now is，Bank shares the past us all feel very high investment value，PB only one times，But never people buy，And the time has not yet to cut interest rates。In fact everyone to the bank already has a a pessimistic expectations，Just recently expected to get cash，so，Even if additional huijin，Bank stocks are still stumble endlessly。In my opinion，Bank stocks, including the weight of adjustment，Still is macro economic fundamentals of the market is a kind of objective reaction。

　　主持人：就是说现在权重股有所走强也是短期行为？

The host：That is now the weight to go strong is also of short-term behavior？

　　桂浩明：对。跌多了就是这样，权重股目前还不可能出现一个趋势性的变化，更不能成为长期走势的判断。其实，与其说权重股走强，还不如说权重股护盘来得恰当些，他们的走强是没有内在支撑。

GuiHaoMing：to。This is more than the fall，The weight of it is impossible to the emergence of a tendency to change，More can't become a long-term trends judgment。In fact，Not so much weight shares going strong，More weight shares more appropriate some offerings，Their go strong is no inner support。

　　主持人：5月份以来“喝酒吃药”行情一直在演绎，市场对非周期股也相对热衷。但近来管理层为了保增长也明确提出，除了房地产持续调控外，投资仍然是拉动经济的重要一环，这是否意味着未来“铁公基”行情仍然可以期待？

The host：Since may“Drink to take medicine”Prices have been deduce，The market to the cycle of opposite also keen。But recent management in order to protect growth also pointed，In addition to real estate outside for regulation，Investment is still an important part of the economy，Does this mean that the future“Iron and the”Prices still can expect？

　　桂浩明：说到“喝酒吃药”行情主要是出于防御性考虑，如一些中药类股有民族品牌可以支撑。但是我觉得风险还是比较大的，特别像白酒股。至于“铁公基”，现在线条还不是太清晰。有关部门说的要重视基础设施建设，主要在中部和西部地区，东部地区并不多，因此见效的时间周期可能会较长。第二，从规模来说，和当年4万亿是不能比的，像铁路建设实际上今年上半年同比是下降了40%左右，如此对股市只能起到一个利好作用。我们现在说要提振经济保增长，除了搞一些建设，更多的恐怕还是在调整产业结构方面。

GuiHaoMing：Said to“Drink to take medicine”Market mainly for defensive consideration，As some of the traditional Chinese medicine shares have national brand can support。But I think that the risk or larger，Special like liquor shares。As for“Iron and the”，Now it is too clear lines。Authorities say the attention should be paid to the infrastructure construction，The main in the central and western regions，The eastern region is not much，So effective of the time period may be more long。The second，Size is from，And in 4 trillion is not better than，Like railway construction in fact in the first half of this year is down about 40% year-on-year，So to the stock market can only play a positive role。We are now said to boost economic growth to the，In addition to make some construction，The more I'm afraid or in the adjustment of industrial structure。

看准趋势再买不要轻易言底 Certain trend and buy don't easily the words

　　主持人：有一个问题很多网友都非常关心，就是2132点会破吗？2000点能不能守住？

The host：Have a question many people very concerned about，Is 2132 points will be broken？2000 points can not guard？

　　桂浩明：破和不破实际上是很偶然的因素，但是如果从技术角度讲，一旦2132点跌破可能会引起一些恐慌。按照现在情况大盘似乎在走大的M形，左肩要比右肩高一点。如果向下破位的话，那就很难看了。我无法预测哪个是铁底，哪个是金底，我觉得这没有意义。现在市场还存在不少不确定性，都会产生调整，做空能量并没有完全得到释放。

GuiHaoMing：Broken and not to defeat is actually quite accidental factors，But if technically，Once fell below 2132 points may cause some panic。According to the present situation in the market seems to go big M form，Left shoulder to shoulder a little higher than the right。If broken down a word，That is very ugly。I can't predict which is iron bottom，Which is the gold，I think it's not significant。Now the market is still there exist a lot of uncertainty，Produce adjustment，Do not fully empty energy and release。

　　如果真的跌到2000点的话，跌得越深，反弹越强。我一直感觉现在股市很难做，16、17万亿的流通市值，而我们现在存量保证金不断外流，表示大家对市场的信心不足。我觉得真正意义上的反弹，有经济面的好转，有宏观面的好转，还要有市场信心的提振。

If it fell to 2000 point，Fall the deeper，Stronger rebound。I've been feeling now the stock market is hard to make，16、17 trillion current market prise，And we now stock deposit constantly outflow，Said everyone to the market confidence。I think the real rebound，The economy is improving，Have the better macro，Should also have a market confidence boosted。

　　主持人：在目前市场仍然迷茫之际，桂总对投资者的操作有什么建议？是做“左侧投资”主动买套好呢，还是进行“右侧投资”看清趋势后再操作也为时不迟？

The host：In the present market is still the confusion，Guangxi to the operation of the total investors have any Suggestions？do“Left investment”The initiative to buy a good，Or is it“The right investment”See the trend too late and then operate？

　　桂浩明：没有看到底的交易都是左侧，不要轻易言底，底是到事后才知道的。我觉得对大多数投资者来说还是右侧比较好，看准趋势再买，如年初你看准趋势后至少200点的空间是能看到的。

GuiHaoMing：No see trading is the left，Don't easily the words，The event is to just know。I think for most investors or the right is better，Certain trend to buy，If you run through the early trend at least 200 points of space is can see。