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　　（记者张松高丽媛）7月28日，诺贝尔经济学奖得主詹姆斯·莫里斯来到新疆乌鲁木齐，参加2012中国数量经济学会年会，这是他首次来到新疆。在年会论坛上，他表示，虽然从金融危机可以看出，资产价格泡沫会对实体经济造成很大的冲击，但是从经济学角度看，并没有太好的办法能够完全消除资产价格泡沫。

（Reporter zhangsong'm Korean）July 28,，Nobel economic prize winner James morris came to xinjiang urumqi，In 2012 China economic annual number of society，This is the first time he came to xinjiang。At the convention BBS，He said，Although the financial crisis can be seen，Asset price bubble will to economic entity caused great impact，But from the perspective of economics，And no good way to completely eliminate asset price bubbles。

　　在时间不长的交往与提问中，给记者留下印象最深的，是詹姆斯·莫里斯的严谨与客观。在回答各种提问时，他会拒绝回答自己不熟悉的问题，而对一些较为了解的问题，他在回答前也会先表示，自己不太熟悉情况，只能提出一些建议，希望能和大家进行更多的交流。如何防范资产价格泡沫

In time is not long exchanges and ask questions，Give reporters most impressive，James morris is rigorous and objective。In answer to questions，He refused to answer his not familiar with the problem，And for some more understanding of the problem，He before answer also will be the first to say，She's not very familiar with the situation，Can only put forward some Suggestions，And I hope you more exchanges。How to prevent asset price bubbles

　　詹姆斯·莫里斯表示，过去很长时间人们都认为，资产未来的价格是可以精确确定的，但实际在经济学理论上，却不存在能够对未来资产价格精确确定的方法。本轮金融危机的发生也表明，在资产价格的确定上，目前并没有精确的方法。

James morris said，The past a long time everyone thought，The price of the future can be accurately determine，But the actual in economics theory，There is able to accurately determine the future asset prices of method。This crisis also suggests，In determining the asset prices，At present there is no exact method。

　　未来资产价格难以预测，是因为存在很多的不确定性。所谓资产价格泡沫，就是由于这种不确定性造成的。这在近来的金融危机中可以看得十分清楚，也给各国经济发展带来了不利影响。比如，美国等国家的房产价格下跌，使得资产缩水，对这些经济体也造成了冲击。

The future is difficult to predict asset prices，There is a lot of uncertainty。The so-called asset price bubbles，It was due to the uncertainty of the cause。This in recent financial crisis can see very clearly，The economic development of all countries also brings adverse effects。For example，Countries such as the us housing prices，Makes assets shrink，To these economies also caused the impact。

　　理论上讲，有几种方法可以减少资产价格的不确定性：一是将市场完全封闭，排除交易的不确定性；二是通过控制利率，减少不确定性；三是通过有效的预测，减少不确定性；四是政府进行有力的政策干预。但在实际应用中，这些方法都具有很大的局限性，难以从根本上稳定市场。比如，完全把市场关闭，结果就是一个灾难。欧洲货币的统一，就是关闭了欧洲货币交易市场，减少人为货币交易的不确定性，但是这一做法却引发了相反的效果，造成了现在的欧债危机。再如，通过利率手段进行干预，那么如何确定合理的利率水平，执行该利率水平到底会有哪些影响，同样存在不确定因素。此外，通过政府进行有力的市场干预，被认为是消除不确定因素的有效方法之一，历史上也曾有过成功的案例；但问题是，在进行干预时，政府怎么确定在什么样的水平上，以什么力度进行干预？

In theory，There are several ways to reduce the uncertainty of asset prices：One is to put the market completely closed，Out of the uncertainty of the trade；2 it is through the control rate of interest，Reduce uncertainty；3 it is through the effective predictions，Reduce uncertainty；4 it is the policy of the powerful government intervention。But in practical application，These methods have great limitations，Hard to fundamentally stable market。For example，The market completely shut down，The result is a disaster。The European monetary unification，Is closed the European monetary market，Reduce artificial currency trading of uncertainties，But this approach has sparked the opposite effect，The cause of the European debt crisis right now。Be like again，Through the interest rate method for the intervention，So how to determine reasonable interest rates，Execute the interest rates exactly what effect，There is also uncertain factors。In addition，Through the government powerful market intervention，Is considered to be eliminate uncertainty is one of the effective methods，History also had had a successful case；But the problem is，In the intervention，The government is to determine what the level，What strength to intervene？

　　詹姆斯·莫里斯认为，完全消除资产市场的不确定性和资产价格泡沫是不可能的，只能通过一些管理的方法减小价格的波动。税收政策难以控制房价上涨

James morris said，To completely eliminate asset market uncertainty and asset price bubble is not possible，Only through some management methods of reducing the price fluctuations。Tax policy is hard to control rising house prices

　　詹姆斯·莫里斯在回答有关中国房价的问题时表示，通过税收政策，不能控制房价的上涨趋势。通过税收手段，只能减少房产的交易频率，但不能减少价格的变化。价格的不确定性，是价格的变化，而不是频率。

James morris in answer to the question of the price of the house when China said，Through the tax policy，Can't control the rise in house prices trend。Through taxation means，Can only reduce transaction frequency，But can't reduce the price change。The price of uncertainties，Is the price change，Instead of frequency。

　　他认为，中国近年来的房价上涨具有典型性，上涨的主要原因是进入城市的人口越来越多，当然人们对于未来房价有较高的预期，也是房价上涨的一个原因。

He thinks，China's recent rise in house prices are typical，The main cause of the rise into the city's population is more and more，Of course people for the future house prices have high expectations，Is one reason for the rise in house prices。

　　詹姆斯·莫里斯曾做过一个流动人口与房价关系的模型，发现城市范围越大，城市周边到达城市中心的交通成本就会越高时，城市中心的房价也会越来越高。可见，城市的房价与其交通费用是相关的。如何让城市房价下降？他认为，最好、最有效的办法就是将一部分人口迁出城市中心。中国经济增长需要更多依靠消费

James morris had a floating population and the model of the relationship between house prices，The larger the range that city，Surrounding the cities of the city centre to the higher transportation costs，The city center house prices also will be more and more high。visible，City transportation expenses is related with house prices。How to let the city of falling house prices？He thinks，best、The most effective way is to move out of the city center will be part of the population。China's economic growth need to rely more on consumption

　　对于中国经济的增长速度，詹姆斯·莫里斯表示无法预期。他认为，目前中国的经济增长主要是依靠政策和投资，在拉动经济增长的动力中，消费占比较小，他建议应该加大消费对经济增长的拉动作用。特别是要通过提高居民收入，来提高居民的消费能力。新疆经济发展要注意环境保护

For China's economic growth，James morris said not expected。He thinks，The present China's economic growth is mainly rely on policies and investment，In promoting the economic growth，Consumption share of relatively small，He suggested that should spend more on economic growth, pull role。Especially through increasing household income，To improve the consumption ability。Economic development in xinjiang to pay attention to the protection of the environment

　　谈到新疆的有关情况时，詹姆斯·莫里斯表示，新疆有两个方面令人感兴趣，一个是它的经济发展，另一个是它的多元文化。但是，他对新疆本身的经济情况了解不是很多，因而他只是提一点建议，新疆有很丰富能源、资源产品，新疆在发展经济的同时，应该注意对环境的保护。

Talking about the relevant situations of the xinjiang，James morris said，Xinjiang has two aspects is interesting，One is its economic development，Another is its diverse culture。but，He to xinjiang itself economic situation understands not many，So he just carry a piece of advice，Xinjiang has very rich energy、Resources products，Xinjiang in the development of economy at the same time，Attention should be paid to the protection of the environment。