A股连续4周出现“黑色星期一”。特别是午后股指震荡下行，市场再现集体跌停潮，沪指盘中再创新低2107.63点。上证指数报2109.91点，跌0.89%；深圳成指报9071.06点，跌0.18%。中小板指报收4223.54点，跌1.54%；创业板指报收688.47点，跌2.15%。两市成交总额867.53亿元，较上一交易日的942.31亿元再度萎缩。连创新低后，救市政策是否会出台？收盘后，本报记者连线了两位业内人士——

A shares appear for four weeks“Black Monday”。Especially afternoon stock index shock to the downside，Market represent the collective drop stop tide，HuZhi pan reached a new low of 2107.63 points。The Shanghai index for 2109.91，Down 0.89%；Shenzhen ChengZhi quote 9071.06 points，Down 0.18%。Small and medium plate at 4223.54 points to，Down 1.54%；Gem at 688.47 points to，Down 2.15%。Two city clinch a deal amount is 86.753 billion yuan，More on a trading day of the 94.231 billion yuan shrinking again。Even low innovation after，Save the city policies might come？After the markets closed，Our reporter attachment for the two industry--

泡沫早破有利市场 Bubble early break favorable market

　　《大众证券报》：又逢黑色星期一，B股指数断崖式暴跌。从盘面来看，ST板块的全面跌停拖累了大盘，这种影响会持续多久？对市场长期影响如何？交易所不断出新规，投资者的投资逻辑应该如何变化？

《Public stock certificate report》：And every black Monday，B shares index tumbled pillar type。From the disk to see，ST plate overall drop stop to drag down the market，This influence how long it will last？Long-term impact on the market？Exchange constantly new rules，Investors investment logic should be how to change？

　　中邮证券策略分析师/程毅敏：ST板块暴跌的持续时间不好估计，但至少市场仍然有向下空间。主要原因是通过对比主板、创业板、中小板的市盈率，参考中位值，创业板、中小板还有向下20%的空间。但是，股指下跌空间不会很大。因为占市场最大的行业，比如银行、钢铁股已经在净值附近，或者说已经深入净值的内部，以总股本角度看整个市场的市值不会出现大幅下滑；但若以流通股本换算为市值，还会出现回落，意味着市场可能进入赚指数不赚钱的时代。短期来看，还需要等待经济数据的出台，才能判断目前经济运行的情况，只要数据显示经济增速不再下跌，对市场而言就能够形成支撑。

Mailed in securities analyst/ChengYiMin strategy：ST plate the duration of the crash bad estimate，But at least market, there are still down space。The main reason is by comparing the motherboard、gem、The city is filled with small and medium plate，A value of reference，gem、Small and medium plate and down 20% of space。but，Stock index fell space will not be huge。Because of the largest industry market，Such as bank、Steel stocks have been in near net value，Or has already deep inside of the net，To view the total stock market value won't appear the decline；But if the corrected for circulation capital market value，Will also eased back，Means that markets may enter the era of making money earn index。The short term，We are still waiting for the economic data to come，To be able to judge the present economic operation of the situation，As long as data showed that economic growth will no longer fall，For the markets can support form。

　　整体来看，市场只有趋向价值投资才会走得长、走得远。因此个人认为投机泡沫尽早地被刺破更好，像ST类的股票、市盈率比较高的股票都是属于下跌前列的品种。

The whole，Market value only trend investments will go too long、Go too far。So people think that speculative bubbles as early as the punctured better，Like ST kind the stock、P/e ratio is higher stock is down the ranks of varieties。

　　中原证券策略分析师/李俊：上周五出台的相关交易办法，对主板一些未来可能进入ST板块的个股有较大影响。第一，冲击ST板块；第二，某些中小盘，尤其是近三年上市的中小盘股，业绩可能在未来1-2年不会有太大改观，所以冲击首先蔓延到主板和中小板里面有可能进入ST的个股，进而影响主板市场投资者信心；第二，目前市场是存量资金腾挪，如果ST板块的资金少了，其他板块资金就多一些，其对大盘的影响很快就过去，而且带来新的资金流动，有助于权重股的企稳。此外，由于ST、*ST相关的市值占比1.1%左右，全面跌停对大盘有很明显的拖累作用，短期来看，这种冲击尤其是对ST板块还没有结束，影响时间会比较长。

Central China securities analyst/northrop strategy：Last Friday on the introduction of the relevant trade measures，On the main board of some future may enter the ST plate has great influence on the individual stocks。The first，Impact ST plate；The second，Some small dish，Especially in the past three years, the listing of the small dish stock，Results may be in the future 1-2 years won't have too big change，So first spread to the mainboard and impact in small and medium plate could get access to individual stocks of ST，Affect the mainboard market investor confidence；The second，At present the market is stock fund move STH，If ST plate little capital，Other plate is some more funds，To the influence of the market soon in the past，And bring new capital flow，Help weight strands of stabilising。In addition，Because ST、* ST related account for around 1.1% of the market capitalisation of than，Overall drop stop to grail has obvious drag role，The short term，The impact especially for ST plate is not over yet，Influence time is long。

　　从管理层释放的信号来看，投资逻辑偏蓝筹一些，但偏行政化规定短期可能会使投资者遭受损失，也会有一些触动。制度的不断出台，并希望资金进入蓝筹板块，所以投资者需要改变投资思路。短期来看，炒作小盘股、绩差股的投资者可能会转变，但会不会切换到对蓝筹股的投资，则还需要出台进一步的政策。

From the management of release of the signal and see，Investment logic slant blue chip some，But slant the administrative provisions may make short-term investors suffer，It also has some touches。System introduced gradually，And hope that money into the blue chip plate，So investors need to change the investment ideas。The short term，Hype the small dish stock、The poor performance of investors may change，But will switch to the investment of blue chip，It will need to be further policy。

回暖需三层面配合 Thaw needs 3 level to cooperate

　　《大众证券报》：受欧洲央行行长强力支撑欧元的影响，外围市场普遍上涨，A股阴跌不止，为何无法跟涨？背后制约的因素是什么？回头看历史底部，都是政策出台拯救市场？政策救市会否出现？如果没有，A股会在什么情况下改变现状？

《Public stock certificate report》：By the European central bank governors strong support the influence of the euro，Peripheral market is rising，A shares fell more than Yin，Why can't go up？What are the factors restricting behind？Look back at history the bottom，Are all policies save market？Save the city will not appear policy？If no，A shares will be in what circumstances change the status quo？

　　程毅敏：制约因素有三点。首先，A股的风险溢价水平在呈现回落的过程。风险溢价取决于无风险收益以外的收益水平，现在无风险呈现回落的过程，意味着在同样的风险溢价水平上，无风险收益以外的收益水平也会趋势性回落。其次，风险偏好也呈现回归的过程。从中国和中国离岸市场来看，风险偏好仍然还有回归的空间，也会使得A股面临压力。再则，现在进入半年报披露密集期，业绩较差的公司比较多，这也对市场形成了压制。

ChengYiMin：Factors that restrict the three points。first，A share of the risk premium level in the process of present back。Risk premium risk-free return depends on the outside of the income level，Now on the process of risk free fall，Means in the same risk premium level，Risk-free return outside of the income will also trend down。second，Risk preference also presents the return process。From China and Chinese offshore market and see，Risk preference still have the return of space，Also makes A shares are under pressure。moreover，Now go to half an annual reports of dense，With poor performance company more，This is also the market form the repression。

　　依靠政策来救市难度很大，目前市值比较高，要出台多大的增量对冲因素来救市场？显然很困难。此外，从大的权重行业来看，当股价水平接近净值时，也意味着离底部不远。

Relying on the policy to help city very difficult，Current market value is higher，How much should publish the incremental hedge factors to save the market？Apparently very difficult。In addition，From the weight of the industry，When the share price level close to the net，Also means not far from the bottom。

　　李俊：与外围市场相比，A股更复杂，与中国经济转型相对应。目前市场分歧较大，有的看周期，有的看消费，看周期等待刺激政策，看消费的更多看转型，所以有限的资金做起来比较难。最主要的是，市场等待一些积极的、与股市相关的政策出台，目前来看相关政策还不够。

northrop：Compared with peripheral market，A shares more complex，And China's economic transformation corresponds。At present the wide divergence of the market，Some see cycle，Some see consumption，See cycle waiting for stimulus policies，See more see the consumption of the transition，So the limited funds do it more difficult。The most is，The market for some of the positive、And the stock market related policies，At present to see related policy is not enough。

　　历史经验来讲，政策出台都集中在几个方面：一、供给层面，IPO暂停，再融资规模限制；二、需求层面，扩大入市资金的范围，比如近期提倡的培育QFII机构投资者等；三、其他方面的改革，比如交易费用的变化。而刺激股市的政策只是市场起来的一部分原因，最后还需要经济层面和货币层面的配合。目前经济还要经历一段时间的观察，政策变动的空间不是非常大。市场在等股市的政策，这对市场持续性下跌有缓解作用，但反弹还需要其他方面的配合。

Historical experience for，Policies are concentrated in several ways：a、Supply level，IPO suspended，Refinancing size restrictions；two、Demand level，Expanding the scope of the market-entering capital，For example the cultivation of the recent advocate QFII institutional investors, etc；three、The other aspects of the reform，Such as the change of the transaction cost。The stimulus policy of the stock market is up part of the market，The economic level and monetary level to cooperate。The present economic experience even a period of observation，The change in policy space is not very big。Market such as the policy in the stock market，The market fall has alleviate persistent effect，But other aspects of the rebound still need to cooperate。

　警惕中、上游业绩风险 Vigilant in、Upstream performance risk

　　《大众证券报》：7月即将结束，8月份中报的业绩风险是否还将继续，投资者需要如何规避？

《Public stock certificate report》：July is coming to an end，In August the performance center daily news if they would continue to risk，Investors need to how to avoid？

　　程毅敏：首先要规避强周期的行业。在整个三季度，我们都需要注意中游、上游的业绩风险，这是因为资源品的价格还会维持在较低的水平，甚至还会出现趋势性的回落，会使得上游盈利被压缩。此外，中游还面临库存的压力，现在有库存回落的现象，在整个库存没有达到历史均值附近周围时，中游行业不具备支撑因素。在去库存的过程中，对企业更多地是种双杀。如果要投资，建议关注消费端，或者是下游行业，选择估值比较低的品种。

ChengYiMin：First to avoid strong cycle of the industry。In the third quarter，We all need to pay attention to the middle、The upstream of the performance risk，This is because the prices of our products will also resources to maintain a low level of，Even the trend will be dropped，Earnings will make the compressed。In addition，Also faces pressure middle inventory，Now have inventory of oil phenomenon，In the whole inventory not have reached the historical average around nearby，The middle industry doesn't have the support of factors。In the process of to inventory，More on enterprise is a double。If want to invest，Suggest the consumption end，Or is the downstream industry，Choose low valuations of varieties。

　　李俊：一部分公司业绩比较好，主要集中在权重股；而一些的业绩风险还没有释放，主要集中在中小盘，目前来看，中小盘的业绩风险还没有释放结束。权重股无论从前期的风险释放还是后期的业绩公布，利空的因素都偏少一些，创业板和中小板很多股票则有相当多的业绩地雷，可能还没有完全被目前的股价反映。

northrop：Part of the performance of the company is better，The main focus on weight shares；And some performance risk is not released，The main focus on small dish，So far，Small dish performance risks aren't release it。The weight of the risk of early release no matter from the late or published performance，Bad of factors have partial less，Gem and small and medium-sized board many stocks are quite a number of performance mines，May not fully be current share price reflected。

　　记者 刘扬 王金萍

Reporter LiuYang WangJinPing