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投资范式改变:ST投机时代终结 绩优股现战略机会--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-06

  上交所发布《上交所风险警示股票交易实施细则征求意见稿》,ST股大面积连续跌停 ShangJiaoSuo release《ShangJiaoSuo risk warnings detailed rules for the implementation of the stock trading drafts》,ST strands of large area continuous drop stop

  理财周报记者 张伟贤/文

Finance ZhangWeiXian/the weekly newspaper reporters

  38℃。台风刚刚退去,广州的气温便再创新高,酷夏难耐。

38 ℃。The typhoon has just aside,Guangzhou temperatures will hit a record high,KuXia unbearable。

  2100.25。上周二,沪指再创调整以来新低,投资者信心跌入冰点。

2100.25。Last Tuesday,HuZhi hit the lowest since adjustment,Investor confidence fell into freezing point。

  好在上周五,石化双雄、银行奋起护盘上演逆转,避免了沪指周线七连阴的尴尬。沪指周涨0.19%,收报2132,成交量持续低迷。

Last Friday that,Petrochemical giants、Bank rise on reverse offerings,Avoid the HuZhi zhou line even seven Yin embarrassed。HuZhi weeks rose 0.19%,$2132,Remain low volume。

  A股依旧在筑底。据统计,近十个交易日内有376个股票创出历史新低。

A shares still in the bottom of the building。According to the statistics,Nearly 10 trading day includes 376 stock makes record lows。

  然而,比起上周的B股和ST,A股的下跌似乎并不是那么的难看。

however,Compared with last week's B shares and ST,A shares fall seems to isn't so bad。

  上周一,受上交所发布《上交所风险警示股票交易实施细则征求意见稿》影响,ST板块几乎全线跌停。

Last week,ShangJiaoSuo issued by《ShangJiaoSuo risk warnings detailed rules for the implementation of the stock trading drafts》influence,ST plate almost all drop stop。

  同时,受闽灿坤B退市阴影影响,B股也大面积跌停,B股指数暴跌5.64%。随后几个交易日,B股恐慌略有缓解,而大部分ST股都出现了连续3个以上的跌停,部分ST股甚至连续4日跌停。

At the same time,By fujian tsann kuen B retreat city shadow influence,B shares also drop stop large area,B shares index plunged 5.64%。Then several trading day,B shares a slightly ease panic,And most of all appear of the continuous ST more than three drop stop,Part four consecutive days of ST even drop stop。

 

 黑天鹅突袭,投资者很受伤 Black swan raid,Investors is injured

  7月27日,上交所发布《上交所风险警示股票交易实施细则征求意见稿》,规定风险警示股票价格的涨幅限制为1%,跌幅限制为5%。这意味着该规定实施后,ST股票几乎只能跌不能涨。

July 27,,ShangJiaoSuo release《ShangJiaoSuo risk warnings detailed rules for the implementation of the stock trading drafts》,Provisions of the stock price risk warnings or limit of 1%,Drop a limitation of 5%。This means that the after the enforcement of the provisions,ST stock almost can only fall can't go up。

  作为对该意见稿的回应,上周一100多只ST股几乎全线跌停。随后的几个交易日里,过半数ST股遭遇连续3个跌停。踩到ST股地雷的股民并不在少数,直呼伤不起。

As for the draft response,Last week a more than 100 only ST shares almost all drop stop。Then some of the trading day,More than half of three straight ST encounter drop stop。Stepped on ST strands of people not in a few mines,Call doesn't hurt。

  记者身边一位黄姓投资者在2011年4月初以10.48元左右的价格买入了锌业股份,公司于今年4月份被带上ST的帽子,之后便跌进了深渊。上周一,已经跌到2.82元的*ST锌业,居然再度连续4个跌停,上周五收盘价只有2.27元。

Reporter side a HuangXing investors in early April 2011 to the price of around 10.48 yuan to buy XinYe shares,The company in April to ST hat,After they fell into the abyss。Last week,Has dropped to 2.82 yuan * ST XinYe,Incredibly again four consecutive drop stop,Last Friday the closing price only 2.27 yuan。

  一年零4个月的时间,浮亏近80%。

A year and four months,FuKui nearly 80%。

  “这是我亏损最大的一个股票。怎么都想不到,都跌到这份上了,还会连续跌停。”他显得很无奈。

“This is my biggest a stock losses。How can,All fall to this,Will also continuous drop stop。”He seemed very helpless。

  然而,踩到ST地雷的,并非只有个人投资者,中招的机构也不在少数。

however,Stepped on ST mines,Not only the individual investors,The agency is not in a few men。

  虽然公募基金从年初开始就已经大幅减仓ST股,但依然有部分“跑得慢”的基金公司遭遇大跌。

Although public enlisting fund from the beginning has been greatly decrease a storehouse of ST,But still have parts“Run slow”Fund companies were then collapsed。

  根据基金披露的中报,截至6月30日,公募基金现身*ST天成、*ST漳电、ST厦华3只ST股,分别是南方上证380交易型联接基金持有*ST天成400万股,信诚中证500指数分级基金持有*ST漳电146.75万股,鹏华普天收益(160603,基金吧)基金持有ST厦华800万股。

According to fund disclosed center daily news,By June 30,,Public enlisting fund appeared * ST tiancheng、* ST zhang electricity、Xiamen is only 3 ST ST shares,Is the 380 south respectively transactional connection fund hold * ST tiancheng 4 million shares,Prudential has 500 index fund hold * ST classification zhang electricity 1.4675 million shares,Peng Shanghai maple acs day returns(160603,Fund it)Fund holds 8 million shares of xiamen ST。

  在这三个ST股票中,*ST漳电、ST厦华上周均遭遇2个跌停,全周跌幅分别达到11.6%和12%。如果上述基金公司持股不动,信诚基金(博客,微博)和鹏华基金分别损失60万和400万。

In the three ST stock,* ST zhang electricity、Last week in xiamen ST are two drop stop,The entire week fell 11.6% and 12% respectively。If the fund company shares still,Xincheng fund(blog,Micro bo)And great China respectively 60 and 4 million fund losses。

  不过,基金公司的中报,对持有的ST股披露并不全面。记者从ST公司披露的一季度报中发现,除了上述几个ST以外,ST廊发展、*ST园城、*ST锌业等10几只股票十大流通股东也有基金的身影,工银瑞信、华商、广发、汇添富等基金公司都赫然在列。如果这些基金公司没有在二季度减持或清仓ST股票,损失也不小。

but,Fund company's center daily news,To hold the ST strands of disclosure is not comprehensive。Reporters from ST disclosure report found that of the quarter,In addition to the above several outside ST,ST corridor development、* ST garden city、* ST XinYe 10 a few stocks such as ten shareholders also have fund circulation figure,Work silver red letter、Chinese businessman、Wide hair negotiable、Collect add rich funds such as companies are impressively in the column。If the fund company not in the second quarter, or a clearance ST stock holdings,Small loss。

  记者还发现,除了公募基金之外,这些ST股的十大流通股东上面,同样不乏私募、券商、信托、险资、甚至社保基金。

Reporters also found that,In addition to public enlisting fund besides,These ST strands of ten big circulation shareholders above,There also private、brokers、trust、Risk information、Even the social security fund。

  其中,全国社保基金一一六组合一季度末持有*ST领先152.08万股,好在这几天该股跌幅并不大。而其他机构就不一定有社保基金这么有眼光了。如私募基金陕西省国际信托股份有限公司旗下财富2号持有的ST皇台连续4个跌停,短短4天内蒸发了近250万元,市值缩水超过20%。

Among them,The national social security fund portfolio at the end of the first quarter 116 hold * ST leading 1.5208 million shares,These days the stock drop that is not big。And other agencies would not have social security fund so had vision。Such as private equity fund international trust shares of shaanxi province Co., LTD. Is its wealth 2 held for four sets ST emperor drop stop,Only four days evaporation nearly 2.5 million yuan,Wiping out more than 20%。

  对于上交所发布上述意见稿一事,不少投资者认为这是搞突袭。然而,上海阜盈投资管理有限公司董事长张卫民却并不这么认为。

For ShangJiaoSuo release the above the draft in,Many investors think this is make raid。however,Shanghai was full of President of limited company of management of investment ZhangWeiMin but doesn't think so。

  “我觉得这么多人在投机ST之类的垃圾股,本身就是一件不正常的事情。很多ST股连年亏损,净资产为负,却依然几十个亿的市值。这是很不合理的。ST股的连续暴跌,是价值回归的体现。我非常支持上交所出台这个规定。”

“I think so many people in the speculative ST such rubbish shares,Itself is not a normal things。Many years of losses of ST,Negative net worth of,But still dozens of the market capitalisation of $。It is not reasonable。ST strands of continuous slump,Is the embodiment of the return value。I am very much behind ShangJiaoSuo issued the regulations。”

  “上交所就是要引导投资者关注价值型、成长型的企业,而不是在垃圾股上面做投机。这个规定来得并不突然,甚至应该早点出台。”张卫民进一步指出。

“ShangJiaoSuo is to direct the investor attention value、The developing enterprises,Not in the trash stock speculation above。The provisions are not suddenly,Even should have come。”ZhangWeiMin further pointed out。

  在他看来,引导ST等垃圾股有序退市,可以让资金更多地关注新上市成长型企业。这是一个良性循环的系统。

In his view,Guide ST etc trash stock orderly retreat city,Money can make more attention to new listed growing enterprise。This is a benign circulation system。

  ST投机时代终结 战略建仓成长股 ST speculative era, strategic builds a warehouse growth stock

  “新规定实施后,我认为ST将不再具备投资,或者说投机的价值了。”谈到以后ST板块的投资价值,张卫民持完全否定的态度。“建议投资者多关注具备高成长性的创业板股票或业绩稳定的银行股等大盘蓝筹。”

“After the implementation of the new regulations,I think ST will no longer have the investment,Or the value of speculation。”After speaking ST plate investment value,ZhangWeiMin hold completely negative attitude。“Suggest investors pay more attention to the growth of a high gem stocks or performance stable bank shares grail blue chip。”

  安信证券策略分析师程定华也认为,ST类股票的普遍特点是主营业务不佳、盈利亏损、债台高筑。然而在过去投资这些绩差股所获得的回报竟远远高于投资蓝筹股,但是原来那种买入ST股轻易获利的范式正在发生改变。在未来投资ST类股票遭遇退市的风险大幅上升。

Anxi securities analysts ChengDingHua also think that strategy,The general characteristics of ST stock is main business is bad、Profit losses、debt。However, in the past investment performance of the poor the rewards have far more than investment blue chip,But the original that buy ST shares of profit easily paradigm is changing。In future investment ST stocks in the risk of retreat city rise sharply。

  不过,与上述私募老总不同,程定华还指出,部分财务指标、股东指标和事件指标有改善ST类股票还是有一定的投资机会。

but,And the private old total different,ChengDingHua also pointed out that,Part of financial indicators、Shareholders index and events indicators are improving ST stocks or have certain investment opportunities。

  “自2007年四季度调整以来,A股调整时间已经达到20个季度,超过了05年998大底前的16个季度和96年512大底前的11个季度。无论是从股票的价值、周期性还是技术上来看,调整都已经接近尾声。现在这个区域,已经是战略建仓的区域。”上海阜盈投资管理有限公司董事长张卫民对连续调整后的大盘非常乐观。

“Since the 2007 quarter since adjustment,A shares adjust time has reached 20 quarter,More than 998 before a quarter of the sole 16 in 96 and 512 before the soles of 11 quarter。Whether from the value of the stock、Cyclical or technology and see,Adjustment has been near the end。Now this area,Is a warehouse areas of the strategy。”Shanghai was full investment management Co., LTD ZhangWeiMin chairman of continuous after the adjustment grail very optimistic。

  “底部或许会磨个半年,但价值中枢就是在2100点附近,具体哪个点位,谁也说不准。”他还建议投资者挖掘创业板中一些具备高成长性的公司机会。

“The bottom may grind a half a year,But value in central is near 2100,Which particular point,Who can tell。”He also suggested that investors in some have high mining gem the growth of the company's chance。



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