上机数控库存压顶，鹿山新材毛利急降，皇明撤回 Computer numerical control inventory malice，LuShan new material Maori urgent drop，Huang Ming withdraw

　　理财周报记者 张慧宇 黄剑/文

Finance ZhangHuiYu HuangJian/the weekly newspaper reporters

　　行业低谷之下，公司在劫难逃。

Industry under low，The company there is no escape from fate。

　　截至2012年8月9日，今年以来已有10家光伏行业公司折戟IPO。

By on August 9, 2012，Since this year for 10 home photovoltaic industry company halberd fold the IPO。

　　同一个行业多达10家公司上市被否，这种情况并不多见。上述10公司之一的保代说道，“这里面一定有行业的共性在里面。”

The same industry as many as 10 companies listed was no，This situation does not see more。The above one of the generation of 10 companies said，“It is common in the industry。”

　　“光伏行业目前正处于低谷，已经上市的一些公司都发生亏损，盈利下降的预测导致很多要上市的公司发行不出去。”华东区一大型上市券商的长期研究光伏行业的分析师说道。

“Photovoltaic industry is now in the downturn，Have some of the companies listed on the losses，Profits forecast lead to a lot of public companies issue not go out。”The east China area a large listed brokers of long-term research photovoltaic industry analysts said。

　　

行业共性：产能过剩价格暴跌 Industry common：Excess capacity price has plummeted

　　10家IPO搁浅的光伏公司分别是上机数控、思可达光伏、鹿山新材料、恒基光伏、快可光伏、日地太阳能、天能科技、欧贝黎、皇明股份和辉煌太阳能，前三者是首发申请被否，恒基光伏为中止审查，而其余6家则是终止审查。

10 IPO stranded photovoltaic company computer numerical control is respectively、Think of photovoltaic、LuShan new material、Henderson photovoltaic、Fast can photovoltaic、solar、Day can science and technology、The li bei、The emperor bright shares and brilliant solar energy，Before starting the application is no is three，Henderson photovoltaic to suspend review，And the remaining six home is terminated review。

　　它们都要面临市场对其盈利能力的拷问，这不仅仅是某家公司的问题，而是整个行业的风险，其中产能过剩和价格暴跌是这轮光伏寒冬最重要的问题。

They are facing market for its profitability of torture，This is not only a company，But the industry's risk，Which excess capacity and price drop was this round of photovoltaic winter the most important problem。

　　8月7日，美国投资机构M axim G roup最新发布的一组数据显示，中国最大的10家光伏企业债务累计已高达175亿美元，约合1110亿元人民币。不论数据的准确度有多高，毫却无疑问地打击了光伏企业和投资者脆弱的内心。

August 7,，The United States investment agency M axim G roup released a set of data shows，China's top 10 photovoltaic enterprise debt had accumulated as much as $17.5 billion，$111 billion yuan RMB。No matter how high the accuracy of the data，Fine long hair is no doubt hit the photovoltaic enterprises and investors of the fragile heart。

　　2009年以前，全球光伏市场启动，对上游多晶硅的需求大增，当时产能有限，供给远小于需求，导致多晶硅价格暴涨。2010年后，随着多晶硅企业新建和扩产产能的释放，全球多晶硅产量继续不断增长。

2009 years ago，Global photovoltaic market start，To the demand to soar of polysilicon，At that time limited capacity，Supply is far less than demand，Cause polycrystalline silicon prices。2010 years later，With the new capacity expansion and polysilicon enterprise the release，Global output growing polysilicon to continue。

　　公开资料显示，全球光伏市场自2005年至2009年实现了年复合增长率45%的飞速发展，但从2011年二季度开始遭遇突如其来的寒冬。2011年，全球总产量达到24万吨，不过根据IHSiSuppli统计，2011年全球多晶硅需求仅20.5万吨，多晶硅市场供给明显大于需求。

Public data shows，Global photovoltaic market from 2005 to 2009 years to achieve the compound annual growth rate of 45% in the rapid development，But from the second quarter 2011 began to have the sudden cold winter。2011 years，Global amounted to 240000 tons，But according to IHSiSuppli statistics，In 2011, only 205000 tons of polysilicon global demand，Polycrystalline silicon the market supply significantly greater than demand。

　　同时，自2010年开始，国内对多晶硅的需求由偏紧转化为过剩，导致2011年大量的多晶硅库存积压和价格的暴跌。

At the same time，Since 2010，For the demand of domestic polysilicon by tight into excess，In 2011 a lot of polysilicon inventory and price slump。

　　2011，可以说是光伏行业最惨烈的一年。从大环境上看，一方面，占光伏市场超过6成的欧洲开始削减光伏补贴；另一方面，美国对中国光伏产业掀起反倾销和反垄断。

2011，Can be said to be the most destructive photovoltaic industry a year。Look from the environment，On the one hand，Accounting for more than 6 a photovoltaic market Europe began to cut photovoltaic subsidies；On the other hand，The United States to China a photovoltaic industry anti-dumping and antitrust。

　　而且，上述光伏行业分析师分析，欧债危机和美国双反带来的影响是光伏市场的急剧萎缩，而中国90%以上光伏产品出口，其中大部分产品销往欧洲，同时近几年中国光伏产品产量又在不断增加，供给远远超过需求。

and，The photovoltaic industry analysts analysis，The debt crisis and the American double reverse the effects of photovoltaic market is the sharp atrophy，While China more than 90% pv products export，Most of our products are exported to Europe，In recent years China and photovoltaic products production and growing，Supply far more than demand。

　　除了产能过剩，光伏行业的产品价格也在不断创新低。

In addition to excess capacity，Photovoltaic industry product price is also in constant innovation low。

　　今年6月，天拓咨询发布的《2012年光伏行业市场分析报告》中称，据光伏行业调研机构IMSResearch最新的统计显示，光伏产品价格在2011年大幅下降。其中，太阳能硅片的价格在过去12个月中大幅下滑70%，从2011年一季度的1美元/瓦，下降到2012年一季度的0.3美元/瓦。另外，多晶硅、电池和组件的价格较去年同期分别下降48%、57%和44%。

In June this year，Day by extension consultation《2012 photovoltaic industry market analysis report》Said in a，Photovoltaic industry research institutions, according to the latest statistics show that IMSResearch，Pv product price in 2011 down dramatically。Among them，Solar wafers prices over the past 12 months the decline of 70%，In 2011 the first quarter from $1 / watts，Descend to 2012 years in the quarter to $0.3 / watts。In addition，Polycrystalline silicon、The battery and component prices were down 48% from the same period last year、57% and 44%。

　　2012年初至6月6日，光伏产品单价仍在下探。2012年上半年，多晶硅下跌21.5%，多晶硅片下跌5.15%，单晶硅片下跌0.65%，光伏电池片下跌1.05%、光伏组件下跌12.9%，薄膜电池组件下跌6.31%。

In early 2012 to June 6,，Photovoltaic products unit price is still in the dip。In the first half of 2012，Poly fell 21.5%，Polycrystalline silicon slice fell 5.15%，Monocrystalline silicon slice fell 0.65%，Photovoltaic cells in fall by 1.05%、Pv modules fell 12.9%，Film battery component fell 6.31%。

　　光伏行业的风险直接导致的是企业盈利能力的下降，而这也成了光伏企业IPO绕不过去的坎。

The risk of photovoltaic industry is a direct result of the declining ability of the enterprise profit，And it has also become a photovoltaic enterprise around the camp of IPO not。

　　

首发被否：盈利能力伤不起 Starting was no：Profitability doesn't hurt

　　上机数控、思可达和鹿山新材料是三家IPO被否的光伏企业，共同的特性是盈利能力不足，具体问题有差别。

Computer numerical control、Think of and LuShan new material is three was no IPO photovoltaic enterprise，Common characteristics is insufficient profitability，Specific problems, there are differences。

　　上机数控是光伏硅材料磨削设备生产企业，主要产品是各种精密数控机床。2012年4月10日，其IPO申请被证监会否决。上机数控面临的主要问题是主打产品毛利率下跌的风险和库存压力。

Computer numerical control is pv silicone material grinding equipment production enterprise，The main products are various precision CNC machine tools。April 10, 2012，The application was rejected IPO securities。Computer numerical control the main problem facing is the flagship product, gross margin downside risk and inventory pressure。

　　2009-2011年，上机数控光伏数控设备的毛利率分别为57.32%、54.68%、52.26%，呈逐年下降趋势。同时，下游光伏产业需求不振，而资本规模都不到天龙光电(300029,股吧)、京运通(601908,股吧)和精功科技(002006,股吧)各自30%的上机数控，抗风险能力究竟有多强？

2009-2011，Computer numerical control photovoltaic numerical control equipment were 57.32% of the gross profit margin、54.68%、52.26%，A reduced year by year。At the same time，Downstream pv industry demand dynamics，And capital size less than day dragon photoelectric(300029,Shares it)、Beijing express(601908,Shares it)And fine work science and technology(002006,Shares it)Their respective 30% of computer numerical control，The ability to resist risk actually have much stronger？

　　另外，2009-2011年，上机数控的存货账面价值分别超过4000万元、1.2亿、1.6亿，占流动资产的比例分别为35.34%、38.95%和47.32%，存货占流动资产比例节节攀升，同时，库存中的库存商品2011年大幅增加。该公司解释，2011年下半年受硅片价格持续下降的影响，下游客户扩产动力下降，光伏设备订单减少，部分订单的发货日期被延迟。

In addition，2009-2011，Computer numerical control inventory book value of more than 40 million yuan respectively、120 million、160 million，Accounting for current assets of 35.34%、38.95% and 47.32%，Inventory of current assets ratio climbing，At the same time，In stock inventory goods in 2011 greatly increased。The company explain，The second half of 2011 silicon prices continue to fall by the impact，Then the downstream customer power down，Pv equipment orders fell，Part of the order of the delivery date is delayed。

　　和上机数控相比，思可达光伏反映的问题主要是成长速度放缓，募投项目产能过剩。

Computer numerical control and compared，Think of photovoltaic reflect main problems is growth slowed，For projects from overcapacity。

　　2009-2011年，思可达营业收入分别为16855万元、32898万元和41038万元，2010年跟2011年的同比增幅分别为95%和24%，营业收入虽然呈增长趋势，但增速却不断放缓。另外，思可达资产负债率分别为78.9%、61.7%和65.1%，资本压力受到质疑。再者，在光伏行业处于低谷背景下，思可达光伏募投项目的主要产品光伏玻璃原片产能严重过剩，超透光伏玻璃前景也堪忧。

2009-2011，Think of business income is 168.55 million yuan respectively、328.98 million yuan and 410.38 million yuan，In 2010 and 2011 year-on-year rate of increase of 95% and 24%, respectively，Operating income although a growing trend，But growth is slowing constantly。In addition，Think of the asset-liability ratio to 78.9% respectively、61.7% and 65.1%，Capital pressure being questioned。moreover，In the photovoltaic industry under the background of the fallen，Think of photovoltaic offering the main products of the project for photovoltaic glass glass capacity serious excess，Super pervious to light v glass prospects also can care。

　　鹿山新材料的IPO曾受到外界质疑，认为其虚增主营业务收入达60%，实际开工率不足50%和设备投资虚增预算6040万元等问题。从其招股说明书看，这家公司的问题是主营业务的毛利率下降，产品价格直线下降；存货增加，经营性现金流增加。

LuShan new material IPO by the outside world was questioned，Think the empty to add advocate business wu income of 60%，Actual starts less than 50% and the equipment investment is empty to add $60.4 million budget。From its prospectus look，The company's problems is the main business gross margin decline，The product price plummeted；Increase in inventory，Business cash flow increases。

　

　终止审查：皇明非经常性资产较大 Termination review：The emperor bright irregular assets is bigger

　　目前，在光伏行业，除了3家IPO被否，恒基光伏则是中止审查，另外有6家公司终止审查，这其中，备受关注当属三次折戟IPO的皇明股份。

At present，In the photovoltaic industry，In addition to three IPO was no，Henderson photovoltaic is suspended review，Another six companies termination review，This one，When the concern about the three fold the emperor bright shares of the halberd IPO。

　　理财周报记者曾从皇明太阳能和其保荐机构中信证券(600030,股吧)了解到，皇明太阳能IPO终止审查，为其主动申请撤回，主要原因在于非经营性资产过大和业绩持续下滑。

Finance reporter once weekly newspaper from himin solar energy and its sponsor citic securities(600030,Shares it)To understand，Himin solar energy IPO termination review，For him to withdraw the application，The main reason is that non-business assets too big and performance continue to slide。

　　皇明集团下辖两个平行的独立公司，分别为皇明太阳能股份有限公司和皇明洁能控股公司。光热、酒店群、会议中心、光立方等产业都是属于皇明股份，而门窗、玻璃、建筑、光伏等产业都是隶属于皇明控股。

The emperor bright group has two parallel, independent company，Were himin solar energy Co., LTD and huang tidy city can holding company。solar-thermal、The hotel group of、Conference center、Light cubic industries is to belong to the emperor bright shares，And door window、glass、building、Photovoltaic industries are belong to the emperor bright group。

　　皇明太阳能品牌部相关负责人曾向理财周报记者表示，皇明太阳能自觉公司“非经营性资产过大，尤其是房地产这块”，担心因为这一原因不能通过证监会审查，故而主动撤回上市申请。

Himin solar energy to the relevant person in charge of the brand had financial weekly newspaper reporters，Himin solar energy consciously company“Non-business assets too big，Especially the real estate”，Worry for this reason not through the CSRC review，So active withdraw application for listing。

　　另外，终止审查的天能科技主要产品为单晶硅片，并逐步向下游太阳能单晶电池片、电池板组件和光伏系统应用等产品延伸，这三类产品价格在不断下降。

In addition，The review of the day can terminate main products of science and technology for monocrystalline silicon，And gradually to downstream of single crystal solar battery、Panels components and photovoltaic system application and other products extensions，The three kinds of product prices continue to drop。

　　而欧贝黎财报显示，2009年至2011年，该公司实现营收分别为7.27亿元、16.85亿元和22.31亿元，净利润分别为1858万元、1.3亿元和7931万元，其中2011年净利润同比下滑约40%。同时，经营性净现金流从2010年净流入0.91亿元下滑至2011年净流出4.15亿元，盈利质量恶化。令人担心的是，这些企业上市后的业绩变脸。

And the results show the Lebanon，From 2009 to 2011，The company achieve revenue is 727 million yuan respectively、1.685 billion yuan and 2.231 billion yuan，Net profit is 18.58 million yuan respectively、130 million yuan and 79.31 million yuan，Among them 2011 net profit fell about 40% year-on-year。At the same time，Business net cash flow from 2010 in to 091 million yuan net inflows fell to 2011 net outflow 415 million yuan，Earnings quality deterioration。The worry is that，The enterprise listed the face after the performance。