衡量市场是否具有投资价值最好的指标是股息率。A股市场自2001年长期偏低的股息率超过活期存款基准利率之后，每当股息率超过一年期存款基准利率，股市就将酝酿一波大幅反弹行情，当股息率低于活期存款利率，市场面临见顶风险。换句话说，一年期存款利率和活期存款利率能较好刻画出近十年来A股市场的运行区间，活期利率水平限定了A股市场大牛市的顶部(2007年)，一年期存款利率限定了大熊市的底部区域(2005年和2008年)。这一现象背后的逻辑很简单，股息率与存款利率的高低变化体现了股市和存款两大类资产谁更具有配置价值。资金从低价值资产流向高价值资产，决定了A股市场的运行区间。

To measure whether the market has investment value of the best index is dividend rate。A-share market since 2001, long-term low dividend rate more than current deposit after the benchmark interest rate，Whenever dividend rate more than the benchmark one-year deposit rate，The stock market will brew a wave of market rebound sharply，When dividend rate below the current deposit interest rates，Facing the market peaked risk。In other words，The one-year deposit rate and current deposit interest rates can better characterizes nearly 10 years to A share market operation interval，Current interest rate level limit the A share market to the top of the big bull market(In 2007,)，The one-year deposit rate limit the the bottom of the bear market area(In 2005 and 2008)。This phenomenon behind the logic is very simple，Dividend rate and deposit interest rate level change reflected the stock and deposit two kinds of assets who is more configuration value。Funds from low to high value assets value assets，Determine the A share market operation interval。

　　这一现象在历史较长的美国股市也同样成立。自1958年长期高企的股息率运行到国债收益率之下以后，股息率与国债收益率以及存款利率的关系也符合这一规律。不同的是，相对A股市场，美国股市更成熟一些，股息率低于活期存款利率或高于一年期存款利率的次数不多。主要原因是，美国家庭持有的股票资产和固定收益类资产较多，存款较少。大类资产配置主要在股票、债券以及不动产之间进行。另外，美国股市情况也给了我们一些其他方面的启示。自1958年之后美国经济结构发生了显著变化，经济增速中枢下移，股市由工业类企业占主导转变为服务类企业、高科技企业占主导，但是股息率与其他大类资产配置收益率的关系始终决定着大类资产配置的方向，决定着股市投资的价值。这说明，股息率在判断股市价值方面并没有受到太多经济结构调整和股市结构变化的影响。

The phenomenon in the historical long American market is also established。Since 1958, the long-term high dividend rate operation to the Treasury yield after under，Dividend rate and bond yields and the relationship between the deposit interest rate also accord with the rule。Different is，Relative a-share market，The us stock market some more mature，Dividend rate below the current deposit interest rates or higher than the one-year deposit rate much。The main reason is，American families hold stock assets and fixed income class more assets，Deposit less。Kinds of asset allocation mainly in stock、Bonds and between real estate。In addition，The us stock market situation also gives us some other aspects of enlightenment。Since 1958 the United States economic structure has experienced a significant change，Economic growth center move down，The stock market by the industrial class enterprise occupies a leading into service class enterprise、High-tech enterprise occupies a leading，But dividend rate and other kinds of asset allocation rate of return relationship always determines the categories of the direction of the asset allocation，Determines the value of the stock market investment。This shows that，Dividend rate in judging the stock market value are not under too much economic structure adjustment and changes in the stock market structure。

　　当前A股市场的股息率再次凸显其投资价值。根据我们的预测，即使2012年A股市场盈利增幅为0，在分红率不变情况下股息率也将达到2.84%，略低于当前3%的一年期定期存款基准利率。但在经济下滑背景下存款基准利率下调是大概率事件，只要一年期定期存款基准利率再下调一次，股息率就接近一年期存款基准利率。如果下调超过一次，那么A股市场投资价值更加明显。

The current a-share market dividend rate to highlight its investment value。According to our forecast，Even if 2012 a-share market profit rate is 0，In the bonus rate under a constant dividend rate will reach 2.84%，Slightly lower than the current 3% of the one-year deposit rate。But in the economic downturn background benchmark deposit interest rate cut is a big probability event，As long as the one-year deposit rate cut once again，Dividend rate is close to the benchmark one-year deposit rate。If cut more than once，So A share market investment value more apparent。

　　需要说明的是，股息率接近或低于一年期存款基准利率并不意味着股市立即见底反弹。2005年在月化股息率低于一年期定期存款基准利率两个多月之后股市才出现反转，2008年由于政策影响，月化股息率低于一年期定存基准利率的时间稍短一些，只有一个月左右。

Those who need a specification is，Dividend rate near or below the benchmark one-year deposit rate does not mean that the stock market immediately see bottom rebound。2005 years in the month change dividend rate below the one-year deposit rate more than two months after the stock market to a reversal，In 2008, due to the policy influence，Month change dividend rate lower than one-year fixed deposit benchmark interest rate time a little shorter，Only a month or so。