罗晓鸣：浙江大学工学博士，现任平安证券财富管理部首席策略分析师，从事行业、公司和投资策略研究

LuoXiaoMing：Zhejiang university of technology doctor，The current peace stock wealth management department chief strategy analyst，Engaged in industry、Companies and investment strategy research　　魏国：中南财经政法大学毕业，长期跟踪宏观经济政策和产业政策，现任长江证券(000783,股吧)武汉解放大道汉西营业部总经理、投资顾问

wei：Central south finance and economics politics and law university graduation，Long-term tracking macroeconomic policy and industrial policy，The Yangtze river securities(000783,guba)Wuhan liberation road west han business department general manager、Investment advisor　　蔡红彬：西南石油大学工学学士、中南大学管理工程硕士，现任第一创业证券总部投资顾问，负责100万元以上高端客户资产管理

CaiGongBin：Southwest petroleum university bachelor of engineering、Central south university management master of engineering，The first venture securities headquarters investment advisor，Responsible for 1 million yuan of above high-end customer assets management　　黄亮：新西兰梅西大学金融学专业研究生毕业，现任国信证券深圳深南中路证券营业部财富中心投资顾问，负责50万元以上高端客户资产管理

　　《证券投资顾问业务暂行规定》自2011年实施以来，证券投资顾问注册人数已近2万，他们无疑是与高资产投资者走得最近的一群人。与证券分析师相比，投资者与投资顾问交流更多，投资顾问的观点无疑更能影响投资者的操作行为，而投资顾问本身对高端投资者的情绪也观察得最为贴近。在本周股指再度逼近2100点的时候，本报记者与国信证券、平安证券、长江证券和第一创业证券四位资深投顾一起就市场关心的话题进行了探讨。

《Securities investment consulting business of the interim provisions》Since the 2011 years since the implementation，The securities investment consulting the number of nearly 20000，They is undoubtedly and high asset investors go very recent a group of people。Compared with the securities analysts，Investors and investment advisers more，Investment advisor's point of view is more can affect the operation of the investors behavior，And investment consulting itself to high-end investors mood also observation to the most。In the stock index this week once again approaching 2100 point，Our reporter and held securities、Peace securities、The Yangtze river securities and the first venture securities four senior shots with the market about the topic of are discussed。

　　记者：都说股市是经济的“晴雨表”，市场目前面临怎样的经济、货币等外部环境？

reporter：All said the stock market economy“barometer”，Facing the market what economy、External environment, such as currency？

　　蔡红彬：投资、消费和出口“三驾马车”上半年表现一般，但在欧债危机背景下我国二季度进出口同比增长8.6%，外贸呈温和反弹态势，进出口下半年更是有望稳步回升；7月份中采PMI为50.1%，同比跌幅收窄，而汇丰7月份PMI为49.5%，相比6月份大幅回升，结合工业增加值及工业企业利润来看，目前经济下行动能逐步减弱，中国经济正在筑底过程中；上半年国家出台的一系列政策也有望拉动下半年投资、消费增速的止跌回升；由于翘尾因素影响进一步回落、食品价格相对稳定，通胀回落趋势已经进一步确立。综合来看，随着政策放松力度适当加大，经济企稳迹象将愈加明显，二季度GDP增速甚至可能成为年内最低点。

CaiGongBin：investment、Consumption and exports“troika”In the first half of the general performance，But in the debt crisis in China import and export under the background of the second quarter increased 8.6% year-on-year，Foreign trade is mild rebound，The second half of the import and export is expected to rebound steadily；July PMI picked for 50.1%，Narrow year-on-year decline，And HSBC July PMI is 49.5%，Compared with June sharply rebounded，Combined with industrial added value and industrial enterprise profit to see，The present economic descending kinetic energy gradually weakened，China's economy is in the process of building bottom；In the first half of the country has issued a series of policy is expected to pull in the second half of the investment、Consumption growth reason of rebound；Due to the carryover effect influence further back、Food prices are relatively stable，Inflation down trend has further establish。Comprehensive to see，With proper enlargement policy relaxation dynamics，Signs of stabilising the economy will be more and more obvious，The second quarter GDP growth may even become a year lows。

　　罗晓鸣：目前CPI已经破2，通胀大幅回落进一步扩展了货币放松空间。此外，目前全球都在进行新一轮的货币宽松，无论是发达经济体的美国、欧元区，还是发展中国家巴西等等，利率都降低到了历史新低水平，很多国家的实际利率为负。我国一年期定期存款利率的历史最低水平为1.98％，而目前离这个水平还有比较大的距离，未来降息空间仍然不小。整体而言，股市外部环境在持续好转，或者说时间对股市有利。从我国股市20多年的历史看，股市走势对货币政策的敏感程度要远大于经济。过去20多年间有过两次降息周期，每次都触发了大行情。

LuoXiaoMing：At present CPI has broken 2，Inflation dropped sharply in the further expanded the monetary relax space。In addition，The world is in a new round of monetary loose，Whether developed economies of the United States、eurozone，Or developing countries Brazil and so on，Interest rates are reduced to the historical low level，Many countries of the actual interest rate is negative。Our country one-year deposit rate history lowest level is 1.98%，And at present from the level and a large distance，Future space to cut interest rates still not small。overall，The stock market continued to improve external environment，Or time to the stock market advantage。From our country stock market more than 20 years of history to see，The stock market trend to monetary policy sensitive degree will far outweigh the economy。Over the past 20 years has made two rate cut cycle，Every time triggered big market。

　　魏国：目前我们在与投资者交流时听到的基本上是“实体经济差”，这种现象在今年初时并不明显。似乎对实体经济的悲观预期已经得到了社会的高度认同，然而一致性预期往往会形成反向指标。

wei：At present, we in the communication with investors heard while is basically“Entity economic difference”，This kind of phenomenon in the earlier this year are not obvious。Seems to economic entity that the pessimistic expectations have got the height of the social recognition，However consistency expected often can form reverse index。

　　记者：目前上证综指再度逼近2100点的前期新低，2100点会被击穿吗？

reporter：At present the Shanghai composite index again approached 2100 point in the early period of the low，2100 points will be breakdown？

　　罗晓鸣：目前A股市场平均市盈率只有约12倍，处于历史最低水平，A股市场整体已经低估。目前机构普遍预计我国经济在二季度最晚三季度见底，经济下行对股市的压力正在消除。而CPI持续回落进一步扩展了货币放松空间。整体而言，股市外部环境在持续好转，或者说时间对股市有利。此外，目前技术上也支持中级以上反弹行情的产生，并存在市场由此反转的可能。

LuoXiaoMing：At present A share market average p/e ratio only about 12 times，In a historic low level，A-share market overall have underestimated。At present institutions generally expected China's economy in the second quarter, the third quarter the night see bottom，Economic descending to the stock market pressure is eliminate。And CPI fell for further expansion of the monetary relax space。overall，The stock market continued to improve external environment，Or time to the stock market advantage。In addition，At present technology also support the production of intermediate above rallies，And there exists market this reversal of may。

　　魏国：虽然在目前区域仍会有震荡，但我们认为已是较好的分批建仓时机。对于前期调整不够充分的中小板、10月开始大规模解禁的创业板则需要谨慎。

wei：Although in the present area there will still be concussion，But we think that is a good batch open a position time。The early enough for adjustment of small and medium-sized plate、October large-scale lift the ban of gem requires careful。

　　在目前经济转型阵痛逐渐明朗化、美元强势形态已经确认，且股市调整之前已经跌破2132前期低点情况下，“经济下行+政策放松和通胀向下+流动性好转”的逻辑已经成立，股市反映出来的对实体经济的悲观预期与政策叠加利好之间的博弈将在本月达到平衡，这将为市场底部的确认打下良好基础。

In the present economic transformation pain gradually clear、A strong dollar form has confirmed，And before the stock market adjustment has been below 2132 previous low cases，“Economic descending + policy relaxation and inflation down + liquidity better”Logic has been set up，Stock markets reflected on the real economy of the pessimistic expectations and the policy of the good superposition between the game will be in balance this month，This will be for the bottom of the market confirmation and lay the good foundation。

　　黄亮：我倒没有这么乐观。无论从技术面还是基本面角度分析，市场目前仍然属于弱势期，若目前的反弹在短期内得不到量能支持，将很难确认2100点为市场底部，反而为后市积蓄了更多做空动能。

Yellow-bright infusion：I'm not so optimistic。No matter from the technical surface or fundamental perspective，The market is still belongs to the weak period，If the current rebound in the short term can not get quantity can support，It would be very difficult to confirm 2100 points for the market bottom，But for the market outlook had saved more short kinetic energy。

　　记者：从技术角度分析大盘短期将如何运行？

reporter：From a technical perspective grail short-term will how to run？

　　黄亮：就技术方面，自上周初市场底背离特征已经较为明显，而上周五小时级别的底背离尤为凸显。MACD指标在上周二沪指回落至2100点时，明显表现出做空动能衰竭的特征。但日K线显示未来指数不容乐观。前期的回落基本上是横盘下跌模式，致使形态上形成了一条阶梯下行通道，因此，市场继续上行压力除了下降通道上轨外，前期横盘平台也是不可小视的。事实上，即使短期出现两次反弹，股指仍未突破自5月初以来形成的下降通道上轨。这一点在布林线指标上也得到了佐证，5月中旬以来沪指跌破布林线中轨后基本上是在布林线下轨和中轨间震荡下行，且股指基本未突破过布林线中轨2150点，这将意味着如果市场不能放量，此轮反弹的剩余空间将十分有限。

Yellow-bright infusion：Is technology，Since early last week departure from the market bottom characteristics have been obvious，But last Friday hour level of bottom deviation is especially highlight。MACD index in the last Tuesday dropped to 2100 point boomed，Obviously showed the characteristics of short kinetic energy failure。But day K line shows the future index is not optimistic。The back is basically sideways down mode，The shape formed a ladder down channel，therefore，Markets continue to upward pressure in addition to drop channel on the rail，The horizontal plate platform is not negligible。In fact，Even short-term rebound appear twice，Stock index is still not breakthrough since early may form since the decline channel rail。This point in the Boolean line index also got evidence，Since mid-may boomed below Boolean line after the rail is basically in Boolean line rail and the rail between shock descending，And the basic point without breaking a Boolean line rail 2150 points，This will mean that if the market can't peatlands，This round of rebound of the remaining space will be very limited。

　　魏国：7月中下旬开始大盘日线级别的MACD背离明显，特别是接近和跌破2150点之后。此外，RSI指标在大盘跌破2150点之后抵抗意愿明显。而6月底以来大盘已经留下2291点、2253点、2162点多个向下跳空缺口，大盘回补缺口要求也非常强烈。虽然我们也认为大盘底背离产生的反弹力度没有顶背离的下跌力度大，但往往也会形成一个很好的底部建仓区域。

wei：Late July start grail day line level of MACD deviate from the obvious，Especially close to and after below 2150 points。In addition，RSI indicators in the market after below 2150 points against intend to clear。And since the end of June grail has left 2291 points、2253 point、More than 2162 points down jump opening mouth，Grail covering gap requirements is also very strong。Although we also think big departure from the bounce of the spring form tin produced efforts no departure from the top down big strength，But also often can form a good bottom warehouse area。

　　罗晓鸣：从2007年底算起大盘已经调整了近5年，上证指数从最高6124点向下已经调整了65％。如果以2009年8月高点算起也调整了近3年，上证指数从最高3478点向下调整了39％。可以认为，如此长时间的大幅度下跌已经消化了宏观经济面的种种负面因素。

LuoXiaoMing：From the end of 2007 the market count has been adjusted for nearly five years，The Shanghai index from the highest point of 6124 has been adjusted down 65%。If in August 2009 high count also adjusted for nearly three years，The Shanghai index from the highest 3478 point downward adjustment by 39%。Can think，So long a severe drop has melted macroeconomic the various negative factors。

　　从月线看，历史上很少有连续月阴线超过3条的情况，目前已经连续3根月阴线了，因此技术上至少有一次月线级别的反弹。而从月线主要指标来看，KDJ和RSI都在低位形成底背离，特别是近日的反弹已使RSI再次从低位掉头向上。再从今年以来的走势看，虽然上证指数近期跌破年初低点，但跌破幅度很小，且其他指数都没有跌破年初低点。如果反弹能延续一段时间，今年就有可能构大双底形态，大盘由此形成反转的可能性也是很大的。

On line to see from，History there are few continuous month Yin line more than three situation，At present three consecutive root month Yin line，Therefore technology at least one month following line level of rebound。And from a monthly main indicators，KDJ and RSI are in low form bottom deviation，Especially the recent rebound has made RSI from low turn up again。Since the start of the year again see the trend，Although the Shanghai index fell below the recent low at the beginning，But the decline range is small，And other index have early breaking lows。If the rebound can continue for a period of time，This year it is possible to construct big double bottom form，The market is formed by the possibility of inversion is a big。

　　记者：随着前期股指持续快速下跌，做空动能是否已经得到了有效释放？

reporter：With the sustained, rapid and stock index fell，Do empty kinetic energy is effectively release？

　　蔡红彬：深交所退市新规一出，闽灿坤B七连跌停加速了市场化退市预期，也导致了B股板块连续大幅杀跌，三只B股股价低于面值；7月28日上交所发布《上交所风险警示股票交易实施细则(征求意见稿)》，引爆了ST股的连续跌停，也导致了部分非ST绩差股快速下跌。虽然市场结构性风险还将长期地逐步释放，但通过这次从B股到A股的大面积下跌还是对绩差股形成了强烈的挤出效应，结构性风险已基本完成了阶段性释放。

CaiGongBin：Shenzhen delisted new gauge a，Fujian tsann kuen B seven even drop stop accelerated the market is expected to withdraw from the market，Also led to the B shares plate continuous industrial sharply，Three B shares below par value；July 28 ShangJiaoSuo release《ShangJiaoSuo risk warning stock detailed rules for the implementation of the transaction(draft)》，Detonated the ST strands of continuous drop stop，Also led to the part of the non ST performance difference shares fell quickly。Although the market structural risk will also long gradually release，But through this to A shares from B shares of large area down or the performance difference shares formed strong extrusion effect，Structural risk has basically completed the periodic release。

　　截至7月27日，A股持仓账户数为5641万户，较上周减少4万户，较前两周减少11万户，相比今年1月份减少了40万户。A股持仓账户占比降至34%，创2008年初有统计以来的新低，这也表明了市场低迷程度甚至已经超越了2008年。但另一方面，QFII却加快了入市步伐，据报道，6月初至7月底QFII向我国净汇入人民币88亿元（约合14亿美元）。在国内投资者不看好市场而不断做空的同时，境外机构却在悄悄加码，这应该引起投资者思考。

By July 27,，A share position account number for 56.41 million households，Last week a decrease of 40000 households，Two weeks before a decrease of 110000 households，In January of this year compared to reduce 400000。A shares account position of slope to 34%，"At the beginning of 2008 since the statistics low，It also shows that the market downturn degree has even beyond 2008。But on the other hand，QFII has accelerated the pace of the market，According to the report，Early June to the end of July QFII to our net import of RMB 8.8 billion yuan（Us $1.4 billion）。In the domestic investors expect the market and constantly do empty at the same time，Foreign organizations are quietly pyramid，This should cause investors think。

　　魏国：目前权重最大的金融指数在日线级别上已经出现底部背离，且工商银行作为杀跌主力军继续杀跌的动能明显不足，其7月份的杀跌更多的是技术形态上回补前期缺口压力。汇金去年10月份的增持工商银行的股价应在4元上下，今年1月份的增持价应在4.1元上方，汇金短期内再次大笔出手增持的可能性较大，如此将有效遏制工商银行的下跌空间，这一点从7月30日交通银行获得财政部等溢价增发的公告中可见端倪；对于煤炭和有色股，目前美元强势形态已经明确，前期国际大宗商品期货暴跌一定程度上反映了这种利空，后期虽然不排除仍有调整压力，但大肆调整的动能已经不足。

wei：At present the largest financial index weights in the date line on the bottom level has been away from，Industrial and commercial bank as the main force and continue to kill cheapen obviously deficiencies of kinetic energy，The winners in July more technology form for the last time the gap pressure。Huijin last October, said the commerce bank shares should be in 4 yuan fluctuation，In January this year of increasing price should be in 4.1 yuan above，Huijin short-term again in large out the possibility of increasing large，So will effectively the commerce bank drop space，From this point on July 30, such as bank of communications for the ministry of finance issued shares at a premium notice sees clue；For coal and non-ferrous shares，At present the dollar has made it clear that form，The international commodity futures collapse to a certain extent, reflects this bad，Although later will not rule out there are still adjusting pressure，But a adjustment of kinetic energy are not enough。

　　有一点想提醒投资者注意，目前的市场已经不同于之前的市场，目前影响市场大方向的一个很重要的指标就是股指期货。在目前的股指期货持仓排名中空单仍占据优势，我们要密切关注中金所每日收盘之后披露的股指期货持仓情况的变化。而目前排名前20的空多单净差较大，这也是我们对后市反弹空间不是太过乐观的原因。

A little want to remind investors pay attention to，The current market has different from before the market，At present general affect the market one of the very important index is stock index futures。In the present stock index futures position ranking hollow single still occupy the advantage，We will pay close attention to the daily closing zhongjin after the disclosure of stock index futures position conditions change。Currently ranked in the top 20 empty many single net difference bigger，This is also our for the market outlook rebound space not too optimistic reason。

　　罗晓鸣：今年整体而言，大盘体现为震荡市，个股严重分化，机会与风险相当。目前依然笼罩市场的悲观情绪并非来自今年的市场表现，更主要是过去几年下跌造成的心理阴影。然而目前我国经济处于结构性调整期，而全球经济仍很低迷、复苏缓慢，基本面不支持股市大幅上涨。因此，要让投资者走出长期下跌造成的恐惧心理需要时间，市场趋势的转变必然是一个缓慢过程，或者说大盘从筑底到回升过程将会是一个长时间的震荡反复。

LuoXiaoMing：This year the whole，Grail concussion embodied in the city，Stocks differentiation serious，Opportunity and risk quite。Still enveloped the market pessimism is not from this year's market performance，More is mainly caused by falling over the past few years the psychological shadow。However, China's economy is in structural adjustment process，And the global economy is still weak、Slow recovery，Fundamentals do not support the stock market rose sharply。therefore，Want to let investors out of the long term decline caused fears need time，Market trend change inevitable is a slow process，Or from the bottom to build the market rebound process will be a long time repeatedly concussion。