金证券记者晓苇

Gold securities reporter xiao reed

　　“CPI下降幅度是略超央行预期的。考虑到外汇占款和经济形态，下半年是有继续降准和降息的空间，但近期不是好的时间窗口。”接近央行人士对《金证券》记者透露，央行内部判断前几年货币是超发的，所以会坚持稳健货币政策，防止极度宽松。

“CPI decline amplitude is slightly more than the central bank expected。Considering the funding of foreign exchange and economic form，There is a second half continue to drop quasi and to cut interest rates of space，But recent not good time window。”Close to central bankers《Gold securities》Reporters revealed，The central bank internal judgment before a few years currency is super hair，So will be prudent monetary policy，Prevent extreme loose。

　　他表示，央行内部判断今年GDP增速在8%，CPI增速为2.8%，短期比较担心的是企业盈利下降较快，中长期比较关注的是人口结构变化、产业结构调整和城市化对经济的中长期影响。

He said，The central bank internal judgment in 8% GDP growth this year，CPI growth was 2.8%，Short-term comparison to worry about is the enterprise profit decline rapidly，Long-term of concern to the population structure change、Adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization on the economy of long-term influence。

　　近日有传闻称，推出存款保险制度的时机已经成熟，利率市场化年内将推进。对此，该人士分析，央行对存款保险制度是比较积极的，但各部委及商业银行分歧较大，更高层尚未就存款保险制度进入深入探讨，年内推出的可能性极小。至于最优惠贷款利率、存款分类及逐步放开等利率市场化相关问题，“还只是在央行各部门研究，离决策阶段较远”。

Recently rumours suggest，Out of the deposit insurance system of the time is ripe，Interest rate marketization years will boost。this，This personage analysis，The central bank to bank deposit insurance system is more positive，But all ministries and commissions and commercial Banks greater differences，Higher deposit insurance system has yet to enter the further discussed，Years of the chance to launch。As for the most preferential loan interest rates、Deposit classification and gradually let go of interest rate marketization and related problems，“Is only in the central bank research departments，Far away from the decision-making stage”。

　　今年6月8日，央行三年半来首次降息，且将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍，将金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍。7月6日，央行年内第二次降息，其中金融机构一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点，一年期贷款基准利率下调0.31个百分点。两次“不对称”，释放了利率市场化的信号。

June 8,，The central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in three and a half years，And financial institutions at the range of floating interest rate upper limit of adjustment as the benchmark interest rate 1.1 times，Will financial institutions lending rate floating interval the lower limit of adjustment as the benchmark interest rate 0.8 times。On July 6,，The central bank years cut interest rates for the second time，The financial institutions the benchmark one-year deposit rate by 0.25%，The benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.31%。two“asymmetric”，Release the marketization of interest rate of the signal。

　　但《金证券》记者获悉，央行将存款利息上浮10%，原因在于当时对通胀担忧，上浮10%可以抵消降息对通胀的压力，但未来存款利率区间继续上浮可能性不大，除非滞涨。 “更高层希望银行能让渡利益给企业，而央行希望银行盈利不要大幅波动。”该人士称。

but《Gold securities》The reporter learns，The central bank will deposit interest rise 10%，The reason is that at that time to inflation fears，Rise 10% can offset to cut interest rates to inflation pressure，But the future deposit rate interval continue to rise is unlikely，Unless stagflation。 “Higher hope bank can guaranteed benefits to the enterprise，And the central bank to bank profits don't fluctuations。”This personage says。

　　接近银监会人士也向《金证券》记者透露，银行如何支持实体经济是目前银监会最关注的问题，预计近期不会有大的监管政策出台。但他也表示，融资平台和开发贷短期不会有实质性放松，贷存比监管取消可能性小，新资本管理办法会如期推进，“大的框架与国际接轨，但细节有可调整空间”。

Close to the CBRC to people《Gold securities》Reporters revealed，Bank how to support the real economy is the banking regulatory commission's most concerned problems，In the near future is expected to won't have big regulatory policies。But he also said，Financing platform and development credit short-term won't have substantive relaxation，DaiCunBi supervision cancel small possibility，New capital management measures will be duly propulsion，“The large frame and international standards，But details have adjustable space”。