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“LIBOR改革需要信息化手段”--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-20
2012年的夏天,一场金融丑闻席卷了多家主要英美金融机构,这场丑闻的核心就是被称为“LIBOR”的伦敦银行间同业拆借利率。
In the summer of 2012,A financial scandal swept through several major British and American financial institutions,The core of the scandals is called“LIBOR”London interbank loan interest rates。
6月底,英国巴克莱银行被指在金融危机期间人为操纵LIBOR而遭到英美监管机构的调查。在丑闻中,巴克莱首席执行官罗伯特·戴蒙德(Robert Diamond)等多人黯然辞职,该行还遭受了英美监管机构处以的高达4.5亿美元的巨额罚款。
By the end of June,British barclays bank referred to in the financial crisis period manipulation by the British and American regulators LIBOR survey。In the scandal,Barclays chief executive officer Robert diamond(Robert Diamond)People such as dim and resign,The bank also suffered from British and American regulators fined $450 million of a hefty fine。
8月15日,纽约和康涅狄格州司法部门宣布,已向七家跨国银行发出传票,以便深入调查其涉嫌操纵LIBOR的行为。这七家银行包括:瑞士银行、德意志银行、苏格兰皇家银行、摩根大通、花旗银行、汇丰控股和巴克莱银行。这显示出LIBOR风波还远未平息。
August 15,,New York and Connecticut justice department announced,Already to seven transnational bank warrants,So that a thorough investigation into the alleged manipulation LIBOR behavior。The seven Banks including:Swiss bank、Deutsche bank、Royal bank of Scotland、Jpmorgan chase、citigroup、HSBC holdings and barclays bank。This shows that LIBOR storm is still far from calm。
LIBOR在形成机制上存在明显的人为操作的空间,也因此被公众诟病,要求改革LIBOR的呼声日益高涨。英国金融服务监管局(FSA)终于在8月13日提出了LIBOR改革提案,称其“已不再与目的相称,必须予以取代或改变”。
LIBOR formation mechanism in the obvious artificial operation space,Therefore are also for the public,LIBOR calls for reform has been an increasingly louder call。Britain's financial services regulatory bureau(FSA)Finally on August 13, LIBOR is put forward reform proposals,Says it“No longer match and purpose,Must be replaced or change”。
LIBOR诞生于1986年,业已成为全世界应用最为广泛的基准利率之一。根据美国媒体估算,全球约有价值350万亿-800万亿美元金融衍生品与其挂钩,美国大约有90%的商业和抵押信贷也与其挂钩。美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克上月曾表示,巴克莱银行操纵LIBOR的做法损害了大众对银行业和金融市场的信心。
LIBOR was born in 1986,Has become the world's most widely used one of the benchmark interest rate。According to the American media estimation,Global about $350 trillion - $800 trillion financial derivatives and its hook,The United States has about 90% of the business and mortgage also and hook。The United States federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke said last month,Barclays bank control LIBOR practice damage the public opinion in banking and the confidence of financial markets。
在每个交易日,由英国银行业协会选定的银行(6家到18家不等)将各自估算的次日借款利率提交给汤森路透公司。汤森路透将收到的所有报价中最高的25%和最低的25%去掉后,取剩余报价的算术平均值,即得出当天的LIBOR。银行所报的利率意味着银行愿意接受该利率,从银行间市场接受短期无担保借款。
In each trading day,By the British banking association the selected bank(Six to 18 inequality)Will each estimated the borrowing rate submitted to the townsend Reuters company。Townsend Reuters will receive the highest of all offer 25% and the lowest 25% after removed,Take surplus quotations of the arithmetic mean value,That is the day that the LIBOR。The bank interest rate means that the bank may be willing to accept the interest rate,From the interbank market accept short-term unsecured loan。
一般而言,如果LIBOR报价水平较低,银行会被认为资金充裕,因此能够以较低的融资成本获取流动性。巴克莱银行被认为在金融危机爆发之后,蓄意压低LIBOR的报价水平,给市场以财务状况健康的印象,并以此获取资金弥补缺口。而有证据显示,交易员和银行负责报价的申报员(submitter)有串谋的行为,以便在衍生品交易上获利或止损。
Generally speaking,If LIBOR quotation level is low,The bank will be think abundant funds,Therefore able to lower the cost of financing for liquidity。Barclays bank is considered in the financial crisis broke out later,Deliberately down LIBOR price level,To the market to financial status health impression,And to acquire funding shortfall。And there is evidence to show,Traders and the bank is in charge of quotation declaration member(Submitter)A collusion behavior,In order to the derivatives trading profits or stop。
英美监管机构被媒体揭露其在金融危机期间便发现了银行操纵LIBOR的行为,但由于担心丑闻曝光会进一步削弱市场本已十分脆弱的信心,因此选择了知情不报。这种助纣为虐的行为正随着调查的继续而遭受广泛批评。
British and American regulators revealed by the media in the period of the financial crisis found bank control LIBOR behavior,But because of fears that scandal exposure will further weaken the already fragile market confidence,Therefore chose misprision。This help a tyrant to do evil behavior is investigated the continued and suffered from widespread criticism。
7月2日,在丑闻被曝光后,巴克莱银行董事长阿吉斯(Marcus Agius)递交了辞呈。人们马上注意到,他同时也在LIBOR的报价监管机构英国银行业协会担任主席。媒体批评英国银行业协会在丑闻事件中难辞其咎。
On July 2,,After the scandal was exposed,Barclays bank chairman the o(Marcus Agius)Her resignation。People immediately noticed,He also in LIBOR offer regulators British banking association chairman。Media criticism in Britain's banking industry association in the scandal corrupting vibrant traditions。
另一个涉及的监管人物就是美国财长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)。2008年,在《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》质疑LIBOR制定方式存在缺陷后,盖特纳给英国央行行长默文·金(Mervyn King)去信,建议英国央行对LIBOR实行改革以避免“误报”。他还提出了改进LIBOR系统的具体建议,其中包括银行需建立可信的报价程序、增加样本中美国银行的比例等。此事被媒体披露后,多位美国国会议员向司法部长施压,要求让未能“阻止已知或者应知银行不法行为”的银行家和监管者负责,将矛头指向盖特纳。
Another involves regulatory character is the American finance ministers' cover Turner(Timothy Geithner)。In 2008,,in《The Wall Street journal(blog,Micro bo)》LIBOR question formulated way after defects,Cover Turner to the bank of England governor Mervin · gold(Mervyn King)To believe,Suggestions to the bank of England LIBOR reform in order to avoid“misinformation”。He also puts forward the concrete Suggestions to improve LIBOR system,Including bank need to establish confidence offer program、Increase in the proportion of sample bank of America, etc。The matter by the media after the disclosure,Many of the United States congress to minister of justice pressure,Requirements for the failed to“Stop known or should know the bank illegal behavior”Responsible for the bankers and regulators,Taking aim at cover Turner。
LIBOR事发后,曾在美国财政部金融研究办公室担任顾问、现任教于美国麻省理工学院斯隆商学院(MIT Sloan School of Management)的金融学教授罗闻全(Andrew Lo)曾经对美国媒体说,“这是金融史上最大的一次丑闻。”
LIBOR after the incident,Worked in the department of the Treasury financial research office as an adviser、Presently teaches at the MIT Sloan school(MIT Sloan School of Management)The finance professor luo smell all(Andrew Lo)Once in the U.S. media said,“This is JinRongShi on one of the biggest scandal。”
罗闻全在金融工程领域有丰富的研究和实践经验。他所主管的麻省理工学院金融工程实验室正在从事金融系统的信息安全研究,而这正是LIBOR事件中的关键薄弱环节。
ROM. Smell all in financial engineering field is rich in research and practical experience。His supervisor MIT financial engineering laboratory are engaged in the financial system of information security research,And this is what LIBOR events of the key weak link。
8月12日,罗闻全在接受《财经》(博客,微博)记者专访时表示,LIBOR已深深嵌入金融体系之中,即便耗费数年,亦无法通过修改数百万亿美元的合约来弱化这一标准的漏洞对市场的影响。应用信息技术是改进LIBOR计算和报告方式的有效途径之一。而监管机构也需要相应改进管理方式。
On August 12,ROM. Smell in all accept《financial》(blog,Micro bo)An interview with reporters said,LIBOR has been deeply embedded in the financial system,Even if spend years,Also cannot be modified by millions of dollars contract to weakening the standard leak to the influence of the market。Application of information technology is to improve the LIBOR calculation and report way is one of the most effective ways。And regulators also needs corresponding improvement management mode。
金融史上的大丑闻 On the JinRongShi scandal
《财经》:你曾对媒体说,LIBOR操纵事件是金融史上最大的丑闻。为什么这样说?
《financial》:You have said to the media,LIBOR control JinRongShi event is the biggest scandal。Why do you say that?
罗闻全:这样说是考虑到以LIBOR为参考的金融合同数量之多,金额之大(证据显示这个数字有300万亿美元之多);对LIBOR进行微小的操控就可以影响到数百亿美金的市场。这一事件的潜在影响超过历史上任何一个金融丑闻带来的影响,因此我才会这样说。
ROM. Smell all:This is considering to LIBOR for reference of financial contract number,Amount of(Evidence shows that the number of $300 trillion);LIBOR to a tiny manipulation can affect tens of billions of dollars of the market。The event in the history of the potential affects more than any one of the impact of the financial scandal,So I would say so。
《财经》:在操纵LIBOR的事件中,银行和监管者分别应该承担怎样的责任?这是个人行为,还是银行机构有意的欺骗?为什么这一事件经过了很长时间才得以曝光?
《financial》:In the control LIBOR events,Banks and regulators should respectively take what kind of responsibility?This is the individual behavior,Or bank institution intends to cheat?Why the event after a long time to exposure?
罗闻全:这件事牵扯到金融系统中各方面的参与者,他们对此有不同的责任。显而易见的是,银行对雇员的监管不够充分;监管机构在发现问题后也没有深入调查解决问题。目前的证据显示,监管机构在金融危机期间和银行一起参与了操纵LIBOR的行为。所以现阶段需要调查的问题很多。
ROM. Smell all:It involved in financial system in all aspects of the participants,They have a different responsibility。What is clear is,Bank to the supervision of the employees are insufficient;Regulators after problems have been found no further investigation to solve the problem。Current evidence,Regulators in the financial crisis together during and bank involved in the control LIBOR behavior。So at this stage need to investigate problems。
这一事件最近才得以曝光,部分原因是在金融危机期间,保持金融系统的公众信心是一个十分重要的共识。监管机构非常担心银行业会突然崩溃,因此他们采取了一系列稳定市场的举措。直到2009年之后,监管机构才开始关注在LIBOR事件中究竟发生了什么。
This event only recently to exposure,Part of the reason is in financial crisis period,Maintain public confidence in the financial system is a very important consensus。Regulators are very worried about banking would suddenly collapse,So they adopted a series of stable market measures。Until 2009 years later,Regulators began to pay attention to in the LIBOR event what happened。
《财经》:在金融危机期间,监管机构有故意忽略问题之嫌?
《financial》:During the financial crisis,Regulators have deliberately ignored the problem too?
罗闻全:是的。在危机逐渐积累的过程中,人们意识到金融系统正变得越来越不稳定。监管机构的初衷是既要保持公众信心的稳定性,又要减少不稳定的因素。所以我们看到的是,LIBOR在金融危机期间呈现出过于稳定的趋势。
ROM. Smell all:yes。In a crisis in the process of gradually accumulated,People realized that the financial system is becoming more and more unstable。Regulators of the original intention is to keep the stability of public confidence,And to reduce unstable factors。So we see is,LIBOR during the financial crisis shows too stable trend。
《财经》:除了在金融危机中保持市场稳定,银行通过操纵LIBOR还会得到哪些收益?这些收益的规模预计有多大?
《financial》:In addition to maintaining market stability in the financial crisis,Bank through the control LIBOR also will get what income?The scale of these earnings are expected to have how old?
罗闻全:对LIBOR事件的调查还在早期阶段,现在对操纵LIBOR的初衷下结论还为时过早。目前的指控和证据显示,无论市场上行还是下行,银行交易员可能会通过操纵LIBOR获利。特别是在市场波动很大的情况下,银行的绝大部分交易员都能通过稳定利率的行为获益。
ROM. Smell all:To LIBOR investigation is still in the early stage,To control the original intention of LIBOR now is too early to draw conclusions。The current charges and evidence,No matter market ascending or descending,Bank traders may through the control LIBOR profit。Especially in the market fluctuation a lot of cases,Bank's most traders can through the stable rate behavior benefit。
计算这些收益的规模需要银行向监管机构提供数据。据我所知,调查还没有给出这方面的结论。这确实是需要解决的问题之一——估算银行操纵LIBOR获取的收益;另一方面,调查人员也需要计算相关损失。操纵LIBOR的代价也许有数十亿美元之高,这也说明这一标准的重要性。
The scale of these benefits calculation need bank regulators to provide data。As far as I know,The survey also did not give the conclusion。This is indeed one of the problems need to be solved, estimate the bank control LIBOR get income;On the other hand,Investigators also need relevant loss calculation。Control the cost of LIBOR may have billions of dollars of the high,It also shows the importance of this standard。
怎样改革LIBOR How to reform LIBOR
《财经》:如何看待目前的调查和处理方式?最合理的解决办法是什么?
《financial》:How to think of the present investigation and treatment method?The most reasonable solution is what?
罗闻全:随着事件发展,有越来越多的机构和地方政府对银行提出诉讼,因为他们意识到这一事件对自己的影响。现在的阶段还看不到很多调查细节,我也希望未来有更多真相公之于众。
ROM. Smell all:As events unfold,There are more and more organizations and local governments to bank litigate,Because they realize that this event influences。Now the stage also can't see many survey details,I also hope that the future more out in the open。
解决这一问题的方法在于如何更好地监管金融机构传递信息的过程。我认为,目前通过运用科技手段,可以更好地改善监管。举例来说,在LIBOR事件中,是由报价员来报告利率,这存在人为操纵信息的空间。今后可以考虑对数字进行电子编码,并将编码后的数据直接传送到不同的申报机构,比如英国银行业协会等。如果这种设想能够实现,我们就可以排除人为因素,也就是排除人为操纵信息的可能。
To solve this problem, the method is how to better supervision of financial institutions to transfer information process。I think,At present through the application of scientific and technological means,Can better improve supervision and management。For example,In the event of LIBOR,Is by the offer member to report interest rates,The existing human control information space。In the future can be considered for digital electronic coding,And after coding data transmitted directly to the different declaration agency,Such as Britain's banking industry association, etc。If this idea can realize,We can exclude human factors,Also is ruled out the possibility of artificial control information。
当然,这无法解决全部问题,因为这些数据总会在某个时刻进入到人可以接触到的系统中去。不过只要有足够的控制,操纵这些信息就会变得越来越困难。
Of course,This can't solve all problems,Because these data will at some point into one can access to the system。But as long as there is enough control,Control the information will become more and more difficult。
《财经》: 如你所言,以LIBOR为参考利率达成的衍生品合同有数百亿美元,说明LIBOR尽管存在种种缺陷,却已深深嵌入整个体系。从这个角度考虑,应当如何对LIBOR进行改革?
《financial》: As you say,To LIBOR rates for reference to derivatives contracts have lent tens of billions of dollars,LIBOR despite that defects,But has been deeply embedded in the whole system。From this point of view,How should reform to LIBOR?
罗闻全:LIBOR的计算方式和报告方式都需要改革,我对此也比较有信心。我们如果有更多的监管,以及足够的透明度,类似的操纵行为就难以实现。数百亿美元的合约都与LIBOR挂钩,因此要在一夜之间变更这些合约是不可能的,即便花费数年也未必能实现。所以解决问题最好的办法就是改善LIBOR的计算方式和报告方式。
ROM. Smell all:LIBOR calculation way and the report way all need reform,I'm also more confident。If we have more supervision,And sufficient transparency,Similar control behavior is difficult to achieve。Billions of dollars of contract and LIBOR hook,So to change overnight these contracts is impossible,Even if spend years also not necessarily can realize。So the best way to solve the problem is to improve LIBOR calculation way and the report way。
《财经》:就具体操作而言,使用实际利率,或是银行间相互匿名估计借贷利率的方式是否可行呢?
《financial》:In specific operation,Use the actual interest rate,Each other or bank anonymous estimate lending rate way? Whether it is feasible?
罗闻全:是的,这正是我所谈到的运用科技的方式之一。目前已经有相关的计算机技术,可以实现以匿名的方式安全地共享信息,我与我的同事也正在研究这一问题。这一技术是指系统在不泄露任一单一利率的情况下计算平均利率。运用现代加密技术可以改善LIBOR的计算方法。
ROM. Smell all:yes,This is just what I talked about the use of one of the ways to science and technology。At present there are related computer technology,Can realize with anonymous way safely share information,I and my colleagues are also research this problem。This technique is refers to the system in do not reveal any of a single interest rate calculated in the case of the average interest rate。The use of modern encryption technology can improve the LIBOR calculation method。
增加金融监管的适应性 Increase the adaptability of financial supervision
《财经》:这一事件之后,强化金融监管的呼声再次加强,甚至连反对强化监管的花旗集团前CEO桑迪·威尔(Sandy Weill)也支持拆分商业银行和投资银行,你对此怎么看?
《financial》:After the event,Strengthening financial supervision calls to strengthen again,Even opposed to strengthen supervision of citigroup CEO sandy wehle before(Sandy Weill)The resolution also support commercial Banks and investment Banks,What do you think about it?
罗闻全:拆分商业银行和投资银行的提法必然有一定的意义,不过对现阶段而言为时已晚。投资银行和商业银行的业务之间有太多联系,拆分这些业务过于困难,意义也不大。更好的解决办法是发展更清晰的监管手段,使其能够管理所有机构的风险,无论是商业银行还是投资银行。
ROM. Smell all:Split commercial Banks and investment Banks will have certain significance formulation,But it is too late to for the moment。Investment Banks and commercial Banks business contact between have too much,Split these business is too difficult,Significance is not large also。A better solution is to develop more clear regulation means,So it can manage all the organization's risk,Whether commercial Banks or investment bank。
从发展的角度看,金融业未来会发展出新的业务线——使投资银行和商业银行的区别更加模糊。最终这些业务之间的虚拟壁垒都会因为商业模式的复杂化和更激烈的竞争而消失。我们还是需要探究风险未能被探查的原因,改进监管方式。
From the development point of view,The financial industry in the future will develop a new business line - make investment Banks and commercial Banks more difference between fuzzy。Ultimately these business between virtual barriers will be for business model of complicated and more fierce competition and disappear。We still need to probe into risk failed to be the cause of the probe,Improving the way of supervision and regulation。
《财经》:可否详细描述在业务融合的情况下,好的监管方式是怎样的?
《financial》:Can you described in detail in business under the condition of fusion,Good supervision way is what kind of?
罗闻全:目前对金融业务的管理主要是限制银行的杠杆水平,要求银行的资本金保持在一定水平。这种监管方式存在的问题是,仅对杠杆水平进行限制,缺少应对市场变动的灵活性。
ROM. Smell all:At present on the financial business management is mainly restricted bank lever level,For a bank's capital to remain in a certain level。This kind of the way of supervision and regulation, there exist the problems such as,Only the lever level limit,To cope with the market change of flexibility。
举例来说,如果监管方要求银行保持不超过2倍的杠杆率,那简化地来讲,这意味着银行每拥有1美元的资本金,最多可放出2美元的贷款。
For example,If regulators had require Banks to keep more than 2 times the leverage ratio,The simplified in terms of land,This means that the bank each have $1 capital,The most can release 2 dollars in loans。
这种看起来中规中矩的“一刀切式”的管理办法在一些情况下就不够灵活:市场波动很大的时候,这样的比率也会显得过于激进;而在市场较为温和的时期,这种比率又显得过于保守。应当将对杠杆水平的管理与市场波动挂钩,换言之,市场需要更加因势利导、有适应性的监管办法。一成不变的方法无法适应市场的变化,而适应性更强的监管也能够带来更强劲的经济增长。
This kind of look of compasses“One size fits all type”Management measures in some cases will not be flexible:Market fluctuation a lot of time,Such ratio also can appear too radical;And in the market is relatively mild period,This ratio and appear too conservative。Should be to lever level of management and market fluctuation hook,In other words,The needs of the market more improve the occasion、Have good adaptability regulatory measures。Static methods can't adapt to market changes,And adaptive stronger supervision can also bring more strong economic growth。
《财经》:从这一事件中,我们可以得出怎样的教训?信心危机已经酿成,怎样弥补?今后怎样杜绝类似的危机?
《financial》:From this incident,We can come to the teaching of the how?Confidence crisis has spawn,How to make up for?The future how to put an end to a similar crisis?
罗闻全:我们应该从事件中认识到,金融系统中的任何一部分都无法绝对避免操纵或是其他不当的行为。无论是银行家、交易员、风险经理还是监管者都有可能做出违背整体利益的举动。
ROM. Smell all:We should realize from the event,The financial system of any part can absolutely avoid control or other inappropriate behaviour。Whether banker、traders、Risk manager or regulators are likely to make the move against the interests of the whole。
我们应当以更加谦虚谨慎的态度来了解整个金融体系和监管体系;也应当承认对这个体系的运行方式我们还有许多不了解的地方和需要更深入研究的地方。金融市场还需要更多的审查和监管。
We should be more modest and prudent attitude to understand the whole financial system and supervision system;Should also admitted to the system operation mode we still have many don't understand place and need more in-depth study of the place。Financial markets still need more examination and supervision。
类似的危机是无法避免的。只要人们处在自由企业的社会环境中,就无法杜绝这种危机。我们需要做的是了解危机在何种环境下更容易发生,并对此提前预警。这就像我们无法避免飓风和地震的发生,但是能够通过提前预警来疏散人群,减少损失。我也希望看到未来有更好的监管方式出台,这将对经济增长做出极大的贡献。
A similar crisis is inevitable。As long as people in free enterprise social environment,Can't put an end to the crisis。We need to do is to know in what environment crisis is more likely to occur,And this early warning。It's like we can't avoid hurricanes and earthquakes occur,But being able to through the early warning to to disperse the crowd,Reduce the loss。I would also like to see a better future introduced the way of supervision and regulation,This will make great contribution to economic growth。
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