金证券记者 晓苇

Gold securities reporter xiao reed

　　“在7月信贷增长远低于预期后，8月信贷出现了回升，但并不明显，总体仍将维持低位。”接近央行人士向《金证券》透露，由于基数较低原因，8月广义货币M2将小幅回升至14%，今年的货币政策目标提前实现，政策放松可能持续低于市场预期。

“In July after credit growth is far lower than expected，August credit appeared picks up，But not obvious，Overall will remain low。”Close to central bankers to《Gold securities》revealed，Due to the lower base reason，August the M2 will small back up to 14%，This year's monetary policy target realization in advance，Policy relaxation may continue below market expectations。

　　某股份制大行人士表示，截至8月19日，四大行新增信贷820亿，第三周新增信贷340亿，较第二周新增580亿有所放缓，主要原因是第三周进入财政存款上缴高峰期，全市场存款压力与资金压力继续上升。“到7月22号为止，四大行新增信贷600亿；而截至6月19号是360亿。”他说，贷款投放前移与监管层窗口指导有关，但信贷投放前移不等于信贷投放大幅增加。

A joint-stock big do say，As of August 19,，Four new credit line 82 billion，The third ZhouXinZeng credit 34 billion，A second ZhouXinZeng slowed in 58 billion，The main reason is the third weeks into the financial savings turn over to the peak，The whole market deposit pressure and capital pressure continue to rise。“Until July 22 so far，Four new credit line 60 billion；And by June 19 number is 36 billion。”He said，Loan on the forward and regulatory layer window guidance relevant，But credit availability reach is not equal to credit availability greatly increased。

　　上述接近央行人士分析，从8月的前20天数据看，全月新增信贷预计不到6000亿元。此前的7月，人民币贷款增加5401亿元，创下去年10月以来的新低。

The above close to central bankers analysis，From August 20 days before the data to see，The whole month new credit is expected to less than 600 billion yuan。Previous July，RMB loan an increase of 540.1 billion yuan，A low since last October。

　　《金证券》记者从银行方面了解到的信息是，目前信贷需求还是偏弱，虽然今年都推中小企业信贷，但国有大行实际上只能进行结构性微调，还是以大中型企业为主。对于平台贷款，是有很多政府来接洽，但银行主观上还是比较谨慎的。“2009年那波平台排查现在还余波未平，中央只要没有下发行政性指令，银行不会去主动投放的。”某商业银行负责人说，保增长的任务，政策性银行和国有银行承担得多些，股份制银行参与较少。

《Gold securities》Reporters from the bank to understand information is，At present credit demand or weak，Although this year, push the small and medium-sized enterprise credit，But the state-owned big line in fact can only carry on the structural adjustment，Or to give priority to large and medium-sized enterprises。For platform loan，There is a lot of government to approach，But the bank or subjective wary。“In 2009 the wave platform side still aftermath open，The central as long as no issued administrative instruction，The bank will not go to the initiative of the launch。”A commercial bank officials said，The growth of the task，Policy Banks and state-owned bank for some more，Joint-stock Banks in less。

　　自今年7月6日央行年内第二次降息后，尽管降息降准呼声不断，但政策面再无动作。本周，央行行长周小川在出席“中国社会科学院金融研究所十年庆”时表示，运用哪种货币政策工具的可能性都不排除，又引发市场猜想。

Since July 6, the central bank to cut interest rates for the second time after years，Although cut interest rates drop quasi calls，But the policy surface no action。This week，Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan in attendance“The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of finance, ten years”said，Use what kind of monetary policy tools will not rule out the possibility，And sparked conjecture。

　　但接近央行人士称，央行的政策目标主要是看M2的增长情况，14％是今年的既定目标，“由于基数较低原因，预计8月M2就将小幅回升至14%。”他认为，政策目标提前实现，可能是近期没有降低存款准备金率的主要原因之一，由于后面几个月M2将继续上行，政策放松可能持续低于市场预期。

But close to central bankers said，The central bank's policy goal mainly is to see M2 growth situation，14% is this year's goals，“Due to the lower base reason，August is expected to M2 will small back up to 14%。”He thinks，Policy goal realization in advance，May be recent not lower the deposit reserve rate is one of the main reasons why，Because a few months behind M2 will continue upward，Policy relaxation may continue below market expectations。

　　此前接近银监会人士也向《金证券》透露，未来的一两个月比较敏感，不是理想的降息降准时间窗口。

After close to the CBRC to people《Gold securities》revealed，The future is more sensitive one or two months，Not ideal cut interest rates drop quasi time window。