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中国社会融资结构呈现优化态势--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-11-14

  优化社会融资结构一直以来都是中国金融改革的重大议题。尤其是在近一段时间,社会融资结构改善的目标更是被进一步明确。

Optimize social financing structure has long been one of the major issues of China's financial reform.Especially in recent period of time,Social financing structure improvement goal is further defined.

  9月17日,一行三会发布的《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》明确提出到“十二五”期末,非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。中国证监会主席郭树清日前在《行政管理改革》撰文提出的“十二五”时期资本市场五大发展目标之首便是社会融资结构全面优化,直接融资比重显著提高,争取“十二五”期末直接融资比重能够占到社会融资总量的30%—40%。

On September 17,A line of three will be released[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning]Clearly put forward to"1025"The final,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.Chairman of the China securities GuoShuQing recently in[Administrative management reform]Proposed articles"1025"Period capital market five development goals of financing structure is social comprehensive optimization,The proportion of direct financing improved significantly,for"1025"The final the proportion of direct financing can account for 30% of the total social financing - 40%.

  其实,中国社会融资结构近年来已在逐步改善,在近期甚至出现了加速优化的迹象。据统计,去年全年人民币新增贷款为7.47万亿,同期社会融资规模达12.83万亿,人民币新增贷款占社会融资总规模58.22%;而今年前10月,人民币新增贷款为7.23万亿,同期社会融资规模达13.02万亿,人民币新增贷款对社会融资规模的占比为55.53%;从季度数据看,今年前三季度人民币新增贷款分别为2.46万亿、2.39万亿和1.87万亿,而同期社会融资规模分别为3.89万亿、3.89万亿和3.94万亿,相应的人民币新增贷款占社会融资规模的比例分别63.24%、61.44%和47.46%。

In fact,China's social financing structure in recent years has set up a file in the gradually improve,In the near future and even appeared signs of accelerating optimization.According to the statistics,The new loans last year for 7.47 trillion,Over the same period social financing scale up to 12.83 trillion,The new loans accounted for 58.22% of the total social financing scale;Now years ago oct.,The new loan for 7.23 trillion,Over the same period social financing scale up to 13.02 trillion,The new loans to social financing scale occupy ratio is 55.53%;From quarter data to see,The first three quarters of this year new loans RMB respectively for 2.46 trillion/In 2.39 trillion and 1.87 trillion,Over the same period, the social financing scale respectively for 3.89 trillion/In 3.89 trillion and 3.94 trillion,The corresponding RMB new loans accounted for the proportion of social financing scale 63.24% respectively/61.44% and 47.46%.

  社会融资结构优化在今年10月份表现得更加明显。央行11月12日公布的数据显示,10月份人民币贷款增加5052亿元,创出13个月新低,与此前机构普遍预计的6000亿水平相去甚远。而10月份社会融资表现活跃,规模达1.29万亿元,比上年同期多5038亿元。在10月份人民币贷款占融资规模之比为39.2%,也创出新低的同时,信托、票据及企业债在社会融资规模中占比却达到了40.5%,超过了人民币贷款,显示出融资结构均衡化明显加快。

Social financing structure optimization in October this year showing more apparent.The central bank on November 12, according to figures released,In October, an increase of 505.2 billion yuan RMB loans,Creating a new low 13 months,With the previously institutions generally expected from 600 billion levels.In October and social financing is active,Scale up to 1.29 trillion yuan,Than the same period last year more than 503.8 billion yuan.In October of the RMB loan financing scale ratio is 39.2%,At the same time also makes new lows,trust/Bill and QiYeZhai in social financing scale up than are reached 40.5%,More than RMB loan,Shows that financial structure equalization obviously accelerate.

  在我们看来,社会融资结构的改善,主要源于在人民币新增贷款规模有效控制的同时,信用债和信托的规模大幅攀升。

In our view,The improvement of the social financing structure,Mainly from the RMB loan scale new effective control at the same time,The scale of the credit debt and trust rise sharply.

  数据显示,今年以来,央行基本按照全年8万亿-8.5万亿的指标和3:3:2:2的投放节奏将人民币新增贷款的规模控制在一定范围之内。与此同时,在监管松绑和需求增加的作用下,信用债和信托的规模明显增加。统计显示,今年以来包括短期融资券、中期票据、公司债、企业债等品种的信用债发行规模为2.94万亿,与去年同期1.12万亿的发行规模相比,同比劲增162.5%,总体上呈现供需两旺的局面。从发行主体看,发债行业多为城投、铁道、高速公路等与基建投资相关的政府机构或地方企业等。信用债的良好表现得益于需求面的持续向好。各大监管机构对于各种形式的理财、资产管理产品的监管大幅放松后,对于高收益债的需求日渐旺盛。此外,中国信托业协会近日发布的三季度数据显示,截至2012年9月30日,全行业信托资产规模达到6.32万亿元,同比大增54%,再创历史新高。相比二季度末的5.54万亿元,信托业单季度资产增加7800亿,距目前国内第二大金融机构保险行业6.9万亿元的资产总额已相差无几。

Data display,Since this year,The central bank in accordance with the basic throughout the year 8 trillion - 8.5 trillion index and 3:3:2:2 on the rhythm will be RMB new loans scale control in a certain range.meanwhile,In the regulatory relax and under the action of increasing demand,The credit debt and trust scale increased significantly.Statistics show that,Since this year include short-term financing bonds/Medium-term notes/Corporate debt/QiYeZhai varieties such as credit debt issue size for 2.94 trillion,With the same period last year compared to 1.12 trillion issue size,Year-on-year strength increased by 162.5%,Overall supply and demand present two prosperous situation.From distribution subject to see,FaZhai industry more for city cast/railway/Highway and infrastructure investment related government agencies or local enterprise, etc.The credit debt good performance thanks to demand the hold up well.Each big regulators for various forms of financing/Asset management products regulatory sharply after relax,For high yield debt increasingly strong demand.In addition,China's trust industry association recently released data shows that the third quarter,By September 30, 2012,The industry scale of entrusted assets reached 6.32 trillion yuan,A 54% year-on-year,Hit a record high.At the end of the second quarter compared with 5.54 trillion yuan,Trust business single quarter assets increase of 780 billion,From the current domestic second big financial institutions insurance industry total assets of 6.9 trillion yuan has little difference.

  社会融资过分依靠银行信贷会导致投融资渠道狭窄,既不利于风险的分散,同时也因无法满足不同投融资主体的个性需求而降低资金的使用效率。加大债券、股票、信托等银行贷款以外的融资方式在社会融资规模中的比重,丰富投融资品种是金融改革的一大方向。目前来看,中国的社会融资结构的改善已呈现出加速迹象。我们认为,随着金融改革的深化,相关领域会进一步松绑,再加上金融创新的提升和投融资需求的释放,中国社会融资结构这种加速优化的势头仍有望延续。 (安邦咨询)

Social financing too rely on bank credit can lead to investment and financing channel is narrow,It is harmful not only to risk dispersion,At the same time also unable to meet different investment main body personality demand and reduce the efficiency in the use of funds.Increase bond/stock/Trust and bank loan outside of financing in the proportion of social financing scale,Rich varieties of investment and financing is a big financial reform direction.So far,China's social financing structure improvement has presented the acceleration signs.We think,Along with the deepening of financial reform,Related fields will further relax,Plus the financial innovation of the ascension and the release of the investment and financing needs,China's social financing structure this accelerated the trend of optimization are still expected to continue. (AnBang consulting)



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