对影子体系的定性认识，是当前中国经济金融的主导话题。以下两则信息反映了基本事实和观察思路。

The shadow of qualitative knowledge system,China's current economic and financial leading topic.The following two is information reflects the basic facts and observation ideas.

　　其一，据悉截至11月末中国信托业受托管理的信托资产规模达到6.98万亿元，而据中国保险业协会披露，10月末中国保险业总资产为6.83万亿元。这意味着中国信托业资产规模超过保险业规模，跃居第二大金融业地位指日可待。其二，10月份IMF表达了对中国影子银行体系风险的担忧，中国银行(601988,股吧)董事长肖钢也发文称影子体系为“庞氏骗局”，近期的华夏银行(600015,股吧)事件则在风险端具有重要标志性意义。

one,It is reported by China's trust industry in late November the management of the trust assets scale up to 6.98 trillion yuan,And according to the China insurance association disclosure,At the end of October China's insurance industry total assets of 6.83 trillion yuan.This means that China's trust industry assets scale than the insurance industry scale,Second place big financial status well-received.The second,October IMF expressed China's shadow banking system concerns about risk,The bank of China(601988,guba)The chairman of the board XiaoGang also outgoing mail says shadow system"Ponzi scheme",Recent huaxia bank(600015,guba)The events in the risk end has important landmark significance.

　　利率管制催生影子体系 Control of interest rate has shadow system

　　和当前美国以衍生金融领域为代表的影子体系2.0阶段不同，中国目前的影子体系仍然处于1.0阶段。目前中国的影子银行体系基本被归纳为银行业的表外业务，以及不是由银行体系承担的融资业务。这包括银信合作、委托贷款、信托业、担保等以及民间信贷。中国影子银行体系的大发展，加剧了金融脱媒，改变了社会融资的来源结构。

And the United States to derivative financial field as a representative of the shadow system 2.0 different stage,China's current shadow system is still in the stage of 1.0.At present China's shadow banking system basic be generalized for banking off-balance sheet business,And not by the bank system for financing business.This includes such cooperation/Entrust loan/Trust industry/Guarantee as well as folk credit.China's shadow banking system development,Increased financial disintermediation,Changed the social structure of the source of financing.

　　很显然，中国影子银行体系的发展，缘于利率管制和金融抑制。这包括金融准入管制和资金的价格管制。信贷的实际利率非常低，这放大了信贷需求，信贷过多配置到了政府、国企等部门，这导致民间部门的信贷需求难以满足，只能寻找非银行机构获得融资；存款端的负利率、低利率，则给了存款人绕开利率管制、寻找更高确定收益的动力，信托产品、民间融资等渠道提供了这种方向。

obviously,The development of China's shadow banking system,Because of interest rates and financial inhibition.This includes financial access control and the price of capital control.The credit of the actual interest rate is very low,This amplification the credit demand,Too much credit allocation to the government/State-owned enterprises and other departments,This leads to the private sector credit demand is difficult to satisfy,Only looking for non-banking institutions to finance;The deposit budget/Low interest rates,Will give depositor bypass of interest rates/Looking for a higher income to determine the power,Trust products/Folk financing channels with the direction.

　　可以说，利率管制和金融抑制是影子银行体系高速成长的最基本因素。影子银行体系发展的本质，是对利率和金融管制、金融抑制的突破。这种突破是利率市场化和金融改革的内在力量。在银行业的高利润面前，这种市场化收益的突破，显然是一种“正能量”。

Can say,Of interest rates and financial repression is the shadow banking system is the most basic factors of high-speed growth.The shadow banking system the essence of development,Is the interest rate and financial control/The breakthrough of financial repression.This kind of breakthrough is the interest rate marketization and financial reform of inner strength.The high profits in the banking industry before,The market income breakthrough,Obviously is a kind of"Positive energy".

　　这让我们想起美国上世纪80年代影子银行体系1.0阶段的大发展，以及这种大发展给美国金融体系带来的格局性改变。可以说，当今美国金融体系正诞生于上世纪80年代的金融改革。

This let us think of the United States in the 1980 s the shadow banking system 1.0 phase of development,And the great development to the us financial system with the pattern of changes.Can say,The U.S. financial system is introduced in the 1980 s financial reform.

　　一直到上世纪70年代，美国都是一个利率管制的国家，但70年代是美国和平年代最高的通胀，实际低利率甚至负利率将银行存款催逼了出来。美国直接融资市场、影子银行体系的发展骤然加速。这一时期是美国传统银行业地位迅速下降的转折期。资金持有人毅然决然地选择了离开银行体系，货币市场基金开始崛起。银行体系为了适应这一格局，也开始放大资产证券化等业务，通过金融混业的发展，参与美国金融体系的大转型。

Until the 1970 s,The United States is a country of interest rates,But in the 70 s is the peace s highest inflation,The actual interest rates low even budget will be driven out of the bank.The direct financing market/The development of the shadow banking system suddenly accelerated.This period is the traditional banking position fell rapidly turn period.Fund holder resolutely determinedly chose to leave the bank system,Money market funds began to rise.The bank system in order to adapt to this pattern,Began to enlarge the business such as asset securitization,Through the development of financial mixed,Participate in the United States financial system the great transition.

　　美国货币市场共同基金（MMMF）的发展最具代表性。这一金融角色产生于上世纪70年代，是为规避美国银行存款利率上限的管制而创新出的金融产品。货币市场基金可以购买公司的商业票据，这可以绕开银行为企业和非银行金融机构直接提供资金，货币市场基金规模在1977年只有30亿美元，到1995年已超过7000亿美元，2008年初美国超过3万亿美元的货币市场基金规模是美国当时个人活期存款市场规模的6倍。

The United States money market mutual funds(MMMF)The development of the most representative.The financial role produced in the 1970 s,For avoiding the bank deposit interest rate upper limit of the control and the innovation of financial products.Money market funds can purchase the company's commercial paper,This can steer clear of Banks and non-bank financial institutions for the enterprise to provide funds directly,Money market fund scale in 1977 only $3 billion,In 1995 to more than $700 billion,At the beginning of 2008 the United States more than $3 trillion in money market fund scale is the United States was personal checking account market size 6 times.

　　让社会融资更依赖市场而不是银行 Let the social financing depends more on the market rather than the bank

　　美国和加拿大同是北美殖民地国家，但至今美加两国的金融体系迥异。这在机构层面源于美国的双重银行体系和加拿大一开始的单一联邦银行体系；在逻辑层面则正是上世纪七八十年代两国的不同。当时美国的利率管制催生了影子体系，而加拿大当时不限制银行存款的付息比例，这导致加拿大金融体系至今仍以银行体系为主。

The United States and Canada is North America with the colonial countries,But so far the beauty of the two countries and different financial system.The mechanism level originated from the United States and Canada the dual banking system at the beginning of the single federal bank system;In the logic level is s and s of the last century is different between the two countries.At that time American interest rate control led shadow system,And Canada was not limited to bank deposits and interest ratio,This leads to the Canadian financial system is still in the bank system is given priority to.

　　实际上中国目前非常类似于美国上世纪70~80年代。中国当前的全国性银行和地方法人银行（跨地域扩张受限）体系，也极类似美国建国至今的联邦和州银行的“双重银行体系”。最近多年的金融改革和发展，中国金融业实际上已走上了上世纪80年代的“美国之路”。

Actually China is very similar to the United States in 70 ~ 80 s.China's current national bank and local legal person bank(Cross-domain expansion restricted)system,Also very similar to the United States since the founding of the federal and state bank"Dual banking system".In recent years of financial reform and development,China's financial industry in fact already on the 1980 s"The road".

　　沿着“美国之路”的未来，就是放开利率市场化和金融管制，以目前的影子体系和债券市场为基础，继续做大依赖金融市场的融资，继续改变以依赖银行为主的融资。这一思路，实际上是通过管制放开，允许银行业追求更高风险但有更高回报的资产，把银行体系的低价格往“影子体系”的高价格靠拢，并且将银行体系“放贷并持有”的模式，逐步改革为“放贷并证券化”的批发模式。不过80年代美国金融管制放松的改革，放大了美国当时以储蓄和房贷银行体系为代表的风险，产生了传统银行业的一波倒闭潮。

Along the"The road"future,Is to let go of interest rate marketization and financial control,The shadow system and the bond market as the foundation,Continue to do big rely on financial market financing,Continue to change to rely on bank financing is given priority to.This approach,In fact is through the control release,Allow banking the pursuit of higher risk but there is a higher return on assets,The bank system to lower prices"Shadow system"The high price of close,And will the bank system"Lending and hold"model,Gradually reform"Lending and securitization"Wholesale mode.But in the 80 s the United States financial control relax reform,The United States was enlarged to savings and mortgage banking system as a representative of risk,Produce the traditional banking collapse tide wave.

　　沿着上世纪80年代的“美国之路”，下一步中国需要继续推进利率市场化，发展资产证券化，继续做大债券市场等直接融资市场，推出存款保险制度将存款赶出银行体系并为银行破产提供路径，放开金融准入限制，并最终弱化银行体系在中国金融业的位置，让社会融资更加依赖金融市场。这将是真正的中国金融体系的格局变化。

The 1980 s"The road",The next step China needs to continue to promote interest rate marketization,The development of asset securitization,Continue to do big bond market direct financing market,Out of the deposit insurance system will deposits out of the banking system and to provide path bank bankruptcy,Let go of financial access restrictions,And eventually weakened banking system in the position of China's financial industry,Let the social financing are more dependent on financial markets.This will be the real Chinese financial system pattern change.

　　中国一直是一个以银行融资为主的间接融资国家，但由于银行体系融资很高的货币乘数，导致了畸高的银行业总资产规模和畸高的M2/GDP规模。中国金融体系实际上也面临着是走“加拿大之路”还是走“美国之路”的选择。

China has been a bank financing primarily indirect financing state,But because the bank system financing high monetary multiplier,Led to the abnormal high banking total asset scale and abnormal high M2 / GDP scale.China's financial system in fact also faces is go"Canada road"went"The road"choice.

　　亟须存款保险制度 It is urgent to deposit insurance system

　　对于中国市场化的金融改革而言，任何突破性的力量都是“增量改革”，是需要积极认可的。但问题在于，目前理财产品和信托产业基本具有的“刚性兑付”特征，导致了信托概念本身的“异化”。这集聚了很大的“道德风险”，因为中国金融稳定体系的最终贷款人中国央行并没有任何理由为此进行兜底。

For China's market for financial reform,Any breakthrough power are"Incremental reform",Need to be approved by the positive.But the problem is that,The current financial products and trust industry is basic"Rigid cash"characteristics,Led to the trust of the concept itself"alienation".This concentration greatly"Moral risk",Because of China's financial stability system is final lender China's central bank and without any reason for this to reveal all the details.

　　未来中国影子体系的发展显然需要打破这种“刚性兑付”。随着中国总体信用风险从上升周期逆转为下行周期，影子银行体系的风险已经显著上升。由于影子体系本身的不同，中国不会产生类似2008年的金融危机，中国影子银行体系的风险还是类似于“次贷”本身的信用风险、兑付风险、流动性风险。

The future development of China's shadow system obviously need to break this"Rigid cash".With China's overall credit risk from rising cycle reversal for descending cycle,The shadow banking system has the risk of significant increase.Due to the different shadow system itself,China won't produce similar to the 2008 financial crisis,China's shadow banking system risk or similar"subprime"The credit risk of itself/Cash a risk/Liquidity risk.

　　但打破刚性兑付之后，在目前中国金融体系“存款无本金风险”的金融体系里，没有本金安全的信托业等影子体系的“高收益到高风险”特征，很显然将冲击投资人的热情。

But after the break rigid cash,In the present China's financial system"Deposit no capital risk"In the financial system,No principal safety such as trust industry shadow system"High yield to high risk"characteristics,Obviously will impact the enthusiasm of investors.

　　这只能靠推动“存款同样有本金风险”的金融改革，将存款和购买信托退回到同样的起跑线。其含义是，大额存款目前所具备的本金安全，本身也是“刚性兑付”，在某银行破产时，大额存款人是要承担存款损失的。这即是要构建存款保险制度“限额保险”的本质意义。

This can only rely on promoting"Deposit also have capital risk"Financial reform,Will deposit and buy trust returned to the same starting line.Its meaning is,Large deposits at present has the principal safety,Itself is"Rigid cash",When in a bank bankruptcy,The large amount of depositor is to bear the loss of deposit.This is to construct the deposit insurance system"Limit insurance"Intrinsic significance of.

　　从这个意义上说，尽快推出存款保险制度，将大额存款风险化，将极大有利于中国债券市场、信托市场等领域的发展，推动金融中介的“去银行化”。

In this sense,Introduced the deposit insurance system as soon as possible,Will FengXianHua large deposits,Will greatly helps the Chinese bond market/Trust market, and other fields of development,Promote financial intermediary"Went to the bank change".

　　中国已经走上了“去银行化”的“美国之路”，这是一条曲折的、充满风险的道路，并将重塑中国金融业。影子银行体系的大发展是这种重塑的开始和前进。

China has stepped onto the"Went to the bank change"of"The road",This is a tortuous/With the way of risk,China's financial industry and remodeling.The shadow banking system development is the beginning of the remodeling and forward.

　　（作者系本报编委）

(The author is our newspaper editors)