和讯网消息 温家宝总理的表态，或可免去30万亿影子银行被清理之灾。

HeXunWang news of prime minister wen jiabao said,Or can free 30 trillion shadow Banks are cleaning the plagues.

　　来自中国信托业行业协会、中国证券业协会、中债登、中国银监会官员讲话的信息显示，目前银行理财约有7万亿元存量规模，券商资管1万亿元，资金信托扣除贷款和股权后的总资产3万亿元，非银行机构信用债持有量4万亿元，委托贷款余额5.4万亿元，信托贷款2.4万亿元，未贴现承兑汇票5.7万亿元，加上3-4万亿元民间融资（央行2011年5月调研统计的民间融资规模在3.38万亿元），中国广义影子银行的总规模应当在30万亿元左右。

From China's trust industry trade association/China securities industry association/Debt in an/The China banking regulatory commission officials speak information display,At present bank financing about 7 trillion yuan stock size,Brokers endowment tube is 1 trillion yuan,Capital trust loans and equity after the deduction of the total assets of 3 trillion yuan,Non-bank institutions credit debt holdings is 4 trillion yuan,Entrust loan balance is 5.4 trillion yuan,Trust loans 2.4 trillion yuan,Not discount acceptance is 5.7 trillion yuan,Add 3-4 trillion yuan folk financing(The central bank May 2011 statistical investigation of folk financing scale is in 3.38 trillion yuan),China's general shadow bank's total scale should be around 30 trillion yuan.

　　“从10万亿到20万亿，30万亿，40万亿，我们看到金融界对影子银行规模的预测越来越大，而且形成了两种截然对立的观点，这将直接影响下一步的政策走向。”国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松在1月20日举办的中国经济形势分析与预测报告会上说。

"From 10 trillion to 20 trillion,30 trillion,40 trillion,We saw the shadow of the financial community bank scale prediction is more and more big,And formed two completely opposite views,This will directly affect the next step policy trend."The state council development research center, deputy director of the institute of financial ba shusong in January and held on China's economic situation analysis and forecast report said at the meeting.

　　巴曙松说，第一种观点认为，如果对这些影子银行都进行清理，可能会使大量资金回流到资本市场，从而触发一轮上升行情。另一种观点则认为，2012年下半年宏观经济触底回升，贷款并没有跟进增长，是除贷款之外的多元化融资渠道支持了经济的复苏，如果盲目清理这些影子银行，会导致社会融资总量突然收缩，对整个经济的复苏将是一个严重的冲击。

Ba shusong said,The first kind of view,If these shadow Banks are to clean up,May make a lot of money back into the capital market,So as to trigger a rising market.Another view is that,The second half of 2012 macroeconomic sole picks up,Loans and no follow up growth,In addition to loan is outside of the diversified financing channels to support the economic recovery,If the blind cleaning these shadow Banks,Will lead to social financing amount sudden contraction,To the economic recovery will be a serious impact.

　　“这就牵涉到影子银行的界定的问题，我的观点是目前范围不宜过大。”巴曙松指出，2011年4月金融稳定理事会对影子银行作了严格界定，即游离于银行的监管体系之外，可能引发系统性风险和监管套利的信用中介体系，风险主要包括期限的错配等，对欧美来说，主要是围绕证券化推动的金融创新工具，而这些工具在中国的金融市场里多数不存在。

"This involves the definition of the shadow banking problems,My view is the range shoulds not be too big."Ba shusong pointed out that,April 2011 financial stability board to shadow Banks made strictly defined,That is free from outside the bank supervision system,May cause systemic risk and regulatory arbitrage credit intermediary system,Risk mainly includes deadline mismatch, etc,To Europe and the United States,,Mainly around the securitization promote financial innovation tool,And these tools in China's financial markets most does not exist.

　　目前，信托公司有严格的净资本约束监管，不能有直接的负债，不能有杠杆放贷，美国的信托业务也没有划入影子银行的范畴；银行正常的表外业务也受到了金融监管的约束，即使按照巴塞尔监管协议的框架要求，也是要计算风险的，而业界只是简单的把银行表内表外业务划为影子银行和非影子银行。

At present,Trust companies have strict net capital constraint supervision,There can be no direct liabilities,There can be no leveraged lending,The United States also have no trust business into the category of shadow Banks;Bank normal off-balance sheet business is also affected by the financial regulatory constraints,Even if according to the Basel agreement for regulatory framework,Is to calculate the risk,But the industry is simply the bank in the table, off-balance sheet business as shadow Banks and non shadow Banks.

　　“大家称为影子银行的产品和机构绝大多数已经被纳入正规的监管体系里面了，并不具备引发系统性风险的两个特点，如果去掉这些夸大的成分，小额信贷、投机基金这些有影子银行特征的，总规模大概在2、3万亿，相比整个金融业的总资产规模是个非常小的比重。”巴曙松说。

"Everybody called shadow banking products and institutions most have been incorporated in the normal supervision system inside,Don't have cause systemic risk of the two characteristics,If you cross out these exaggerated composition,microfinance/Speculative funds the characteristics of shadow Banks,The total scale about 2/3 trillion,Compared with the total assets of the financial industry scale is a very small proportion."Ba shusong said.

　　但很显然，即便是金融业界对此也存在很大分歧。中信银行(601998,股吧)行长朱小黄2012年11月曾表示，据不完全统计，包括未贴现的银行承兑汇票委托代理、信托代管、民间借贷等在内，影子银行规模至少在17万亿元以上。

But obviously,Even if the financial industry are there is a big difference.Citic bank(601998,guba)President zhu yellow in November 2012 has said,According to incomplete statistics,Including not discount bank acceptance bill entrusted agency/Trust agency/Folk lending, etc,,Shadow Banks scale at least 17 trillion yuan of above.

　　巴曙松指出，理财产品有2012年实施的商业银行理财产品销售管理办法进行约束，企业集团财务公司管理办法、汽车金融管理办法里也有资本约束，直接控制其资产扩张能力。“全国66家信托公司总资产6.32万亿，只占银行业总资产的5.2%，而在美国，受监管的银行资产规模和没受监管的影子银行规模约为1:1。”

Ba shusong pointed out that,Financial products have 2012 years of the implementation of the commercial bank financing products sales management method of the constraint,The measures for the administration of the financial companies of enterprise groups/Auto finance management way, also have capital constraint,Direct control of its assets expansion ability."The nation's 66 trust company total assets of 6.32 trillion,The banking industry accounts for only 5.2% of total assets,In the United States,Regulated bank asset scale and not regulated shadow Banks about 1:1 scale."

　　“理财产品从特定意义上讲是商业银行对利率市场化的一个预演，在存贷款利率受到管制的情况下，通过创新设计来发行利率市场化程度更高的理财产品，实际上给商业银行提供了一个学习产品定价、提升定价能力的积累经验的过程。如果没有这些积累，未来利率放开时很多商业银行可能会遭受重大冲击，所以影子银行从本质上说应该算是一种金融创新，应从服务实体经济、促进非传统银行业务发展的角度来规范和引导。”巴曙松说。

"Financial products from a specific sense is the commercial bank interest rate marketization of a rehearsal,In the interest rate under the condition of the regulated,Through innovative design by issuing interest rate marketization degree higher financial products,In fact to the commercial bank provides a learning product pricing/Ascension pricing power of the accumulation of the process of experience.Without these accumulation,Future rates when let go of many commercial bank may suffer great impact,So the shadow Banks essentially should be a kind of financial innovation,We should service entity economy/Promoting non-traditional banking development point of view to regulate and guide."Ba shusong said.

　　国务院总理温家宝1月21日与中国人民银行、银监会、证监会、保监会及有关金融单位、主要商业银行负责人座谈时也强调，鼓励以市场为导向的金融创新，发挥各类金融机构作用，加快发展民营金融机构，健全促进宏观经济稳定、支持实体经济发展的现代金融体系。

The state council premier wen jiabao on January 21, and the people's bank of China/The CBRC/CSRC/The China insurance regulatory commission and the relevant financial unit/The main commercial Banks also emphasizes discussion,Encouraging market-oriented financial innovation,Play the role of the financial institutions of all kinds of,Accelerate the development of private financial institutions,To promote sound macro economic stability/To support the real economy development in the modern financial system.