近日国际金价以前所未有的姿态向下俯冲，与之相关的黄金ETF等投资产品跌幅均超过20%。相比实物黄金市场呈现火爆抢购局面，其他黄金资产如纸黄金、期货金和现货金的投资情况尚未明朗。本期招财猫邀请了摩根基金副总裁谭慧敏以及本报金融市场观察员唐学鹏为大家解答疑惑。

Recently the international gold prices to unprecedented gesture dive,Associated with gold ETF investment products such as falling more than 20%.Compared to physical gold market is popular to snap up situation,Other gold paper assets such as gold/Gold and gold futures investment situation is not clear.This plutus cat Tan Huimin invited Morgan fund vice President as well as our financial market watchers Tang Xuepeng answer for everyone.

　　1、富贵险中求，现在是对黄金资产抄底的时候吗？

1/Wealth and risk in,Now is the time to bottom of gold assets?

　　2、若从平衡风险的角度出发，未来3至6个月，应如何配置股票、债券、大宗商品以及贵金属的份额？

2/If from the perspective of balancing risks,Over the next three to six months,Should be how to configure the stocks/The bond/Share of commodities and precious metals?

　　谭慧敏（摩根基金副总裁、亚洲市场策略师）

Tan Huimin(Morgan fund vice President/Asian markets strategist)

　　A1：毋庸置疑，金价断崖式的下跌使金矿股估值跌入深渊，对长期投资者来说，入市机遇已摆在眼前。但从技术角度出发，黄金ETF的平仓交易活动可能短期内还会导致金价下跌，是否见底言之尚早。

A1:There is no doubt,Gold cliffs of fall makes gold stock valuations fell into the abyss,For long-term investors,Market opportunity is on.But from a technical perspective,Gold etfs unwind trading activities may also lead to gold prices in the short term,If the bottom is too early.

　　中国一季度令人失望的GDP增长，直接触发并加剧了金价的暴跌。投资者担忧，中国对黄金的需求减弱。以往黄金一直被视为对抗通胀和金融危机的“利器”。但现阶段全球通胀缓和，由欧债危机引发的尾部风险降低，导致黄金的投资属性减弱。随着欧洲央行实践OMT无限买债计划，市场对于黄金的整体需求大幅减少。

The disappointing first quarter GDP growth in China,Directly trigger and contributed to the slump in the gold.Investors worried about,China's weakening demand for gold.Gold has been as a hedge against inflation and financial crisis"Sharp object".But at present the global inflation,Tail risk reduction caused by Europe's debt crisis,Lead to the gold investment properties.As the European central bank practice OMT unlimited bond buying program,The overall demand of the market for gold is greatly reduced.

　　黄金的投资前景短期堪忧，尤其是美元随着美国经济复苏而走强，加上美联储可能提早结束QE3，但我仍建议中长期投资者配置部分黄金类资产。我没有“水晶球”来预测金价是否见底，投资者可采取分时段购买的策略，在当前价位买入少量黄金资产，若金价继续下滑，可酌情增加仓位，捕捉反弹行情。

Gold short-term investment prospects are grim,Especially as the U.S. economic recovery and a stronger dollar,Combined with the federal reserve may end QE3,But I still suggest that long-term investors configuration part gold asset class.I don't have"The crystal ball"To predict whether gold bottomed out,Investors can take period of time purchasing strategy,In the current price to buy a small amount of gold assets,If prices continue to fall,Can increase the positions as appropriate,Capture the rally.

　　A2：相比其他金属和大宗商品，黄金基本类似于“钱”。除了对冲通胀外，市场上不乏投资者买入黄金来对冲未知灾害、通缩和货币贬值。因此，在投资组合中适当配置黄金仍是必要的，但必须注意短期价格波动的风险，不可孤注一掷抄底。

A2:Compared with metals and other commodities,Gold is similar to the basic"money".In addition to hedge against inflation,Some investors buy gold as a hedge against unknown hazards on the market/Deflation and currency devaluation.so,Properly configured in the portfolio of gold is still necessary,But must pay attention to short-term fluctuations in the price,Do not put all your eggs in one basket bottom.

　　考虑投资者可适当承受市场波动，我们建议未来3至6个月增持美国、日本和亚洲股票，高收益债券包括企业高息债、新兴市场债券同样值得买入。与此同时，建议减持美国、日本和欧元区国债，对黄金为代表的贵金属保持警惕。

Consider investors can be subject to appropriate market volatility,We suggest that over the next three to six months to increase the United States/Japan and Asian equities,High yield bonds including corporate high-yield debt/Emerging market debt also worth buying.At the same time,Reducing their holdings of American advice/Japan and the eurozone government bonds,Be alert for gold on behalf of precious metals.

　　唐学鹏（本报金融市场观察员）：

Tang Xuepeng(Our financial market watchers):

　　我反复强调过黄金不是永恒资产。黄金上涨和通胀无关，和整体货币存量的高增长无关，和股票市场的火爆或萧条无关，和债市红利水平无关，黄金甚至独立于经济周期。比如次贷前和次贷危机期间，通胀下黄金涨通缩下黄金也涨，道指狂跌时金涨道指狂涨时金也涨。再次强调，黄金并非永恒，2000年之前的“克林顿十年”是黄金跌跌不休的十年。

I have repeatedly stressed that gold is not a permanent assets.Gold rose and inflation has nothing to do,Has nothing to do with overall growth of the money stock,Has nothing to do with stock market boom or recession,And the bond market dividend level has nothing to do,Gold even independent of the economic cycle.Before and during the subprime crisis, such as subprime,Inflation was gold, gold under deflation,The dow fell up the dow soared gold also rose.Once again,Gold is not eternal,2000 years ago"Clinton for ten years"Gold is a decade of decline.

　　根据我的“增长率差值理论”，美元是全球需要，但美国的实力却是世界经济的局部，局部支撑整体有悖论，美元迎合全球需要，则美元币值下跌，美元根据美国实力供应，则全球出现货币紧缩。即使美元满足全球需要甚至过度泛滥，只要美国的经济增长或者其加速度超过全球平均速度或者加速度，那么人们将预期未来美国依然能支撑其币值。而在这种情况下，美元将压倒性地打击黄金。否则，黄金将飙升不休。

Based on my own"The growth rate of difference theory",Dollar is the world's needs,But America's power is local of the world economy,Local support overall there is paradox,Dollars to meet global needs,The value of the dollar falls,According to the U.S. dollar power supply,Is a global monetary tightening.Even if the dollar as the global need even grossly excessive,As long as the economic growth in the United States or its acceleration is more than the global average velocity or acceleration,Then people will be the United States still holds up its currency in the future.But in this case,The dollar will overwhelmingly against gold.otherwise,Gold will soar.

　　在克林顿新经济(310358,基金吧)时期，即1991-2000年的美国年均GDP增长率达到3.7%，而此时全球的经济增长率是2.6%，美国和世界差值是+1.1%，黄金跌了整整十年。而从2001年至2011年，全世界的GDP增长平均速度达到了4%，而美国在3%以下，美国和世界的差值是-1%，黄金飙升了十一年。

In Clinton's new economy(310358,Fund?)period,That is 1991-2000 America's average annual GDP growth rate reached 3.7%,At a time when global economic growth rate is 2.6%,The United States and the world difference is + 1.1%,Gold fell for ten years.And from 2001 to 2011,The world's average GDP growth rate reached 4%,While the United States at less than 3%,The United States and the deviation is - 1% of the world,Gold soared for eleven years.

　　黄金是否值得抄底？从大尺度来看，抄底是危险的。因为美国增长率正在赶上世界的步伐，从2012年美国强劲复苏，黄金进入了萎靡的徘徊行情。但还有一种可能，美国经济会突然变糟。美国这轮经济复苏的最大推力是以苹果为代表的高科技公司，是实体经济单元。但这些公司的利润开始大幅下降。根本原因在于，世界是相互传染的。新兴市场国家经济变差时，他们没有足够的低廉供应链和消费力来满足美国实体经济，一种负面传染发生了。美国经济开始感受全球经济的寒意，一个自然的结果是，美股将会从高位下跌，美联储会继续QE来拯救，但这时它的作用是快速提高美股的通胀，对通胀的疑惧又继续使得美股跌落。一旦美国的经济疲软程度超过世界平均水平，那么黄金将会阶段性的复苏，使黄金抄底行动变成一种明智的举动。在工具上，像黄金ETF、实物金都是可行的选择。从资产配置的角度看，美股应当削减，债券可以保留，黄金增加点头寸。

Whether it is worth gold bottom?From a large scale,It is dangerous to bottom.Because of the growth rate in the United States are catching up with the pace of the world,The strong recovery in 2012,Gold wandering into the flagging.But there is a possibility,The U.S. economy will suddenly became worse.The maximum thrust of this round of economic recovery is a delegate with apple's high-tech companies,Unit is the real economy.But the company's profits began to fall sharply.The root cause is that,The world is cross-infection.Emerging markets economic variation,They don't have enough cheap and spending power of supply chain to meet the real economy,A negative infection happened.The U.S. economy began to feel the chill of the global economy,Is a natural result,U.S. stocks will fall from high,The federal reserve will continue to QE to save,But now its role is to quickly improve the stock of inflation,The inflation fears continued to make U.S. stocks fell.Once the weak us economy than the world average,The gold will timely recovery,Make gold bottom action into a wise move.On the tools,Like a gold ETF/Physical gold are both feasible choice.From the perspective of asset allocation,U.S. stocks should be cut,Bonds can be retained,Gold point positions.

　　（本文由曾静娇编辑整理）

(By jing jiao compiled in this paper)