“9470个考生竞争一个岗位”，这是10月24日，2013年度国家公务员考试报名结束后，出现的新纪录。本次“国考”报名总人数达137万，这一数字连续4年突破百万关口。

"9470 the examinee the competition for a post",It is October 24,2013 the national civil servant exam after registration,The new record.this"Countries take an examination of"The total number of 1.37 million,This number four consecutive years breakthrough million gates.

　　与此同时，一个“唱反调”的话题也在升温：“当下拼命挤进公务员队伍的年轻人，未来命运会不会跟十多年前的下岗国企工人一样人到中年被体制抛弃，浑身没有一样市场需要的技能？”

meanwhile,a"naysayers"Topics also in heating:"Then try very hard to squeeze into civil service team of young people,The future destiny would not with ten years ago state-owned enterprises laid-off workers in middle age was abandoned system,Not all the needs of the market skills?"

　　反调所言会成为现实吗？潇湘晨报联合大湘网分别针对公务员和非公务员群体开展两项网络调查，截至2012年10月29日晚7点，参与人数分别为2307人和2927人。

FanDiao said it will become a reality?Xiaoxiang morning joint big xiang net respectiely on civil servants and civil servants group to carry out two network survey,By the end of 2012 on October 29, 7 PM,The number of involved in 2307 and 2927 respectively.

　　结果显示，18.00%的受访公务员认为“这是必然的”，仅有8.64%的人认为“完全没可能”。针对非公务员的调查数据，与之非常接近。

Results show that,18.00% of the respondents think that civil servants"This is inevitable",Only 8.64% of the people think"impossible".According to the survey data of civil servants,The very close to.

　　本报记者袁树勋 长沙报道

Our correspondent reported YuanShuXun changsha

38.53%受访公务员认为“现实与预期相差太远” 38.53% of civil servants think"Reality and expectations are too far away"

　　邵阳市某机关干部方洪（化名）看到微博上“公务员未来会不会被体制抛弃”的讨论后，特地把链接发到一个相互熟知的公务员圈子QQ群里，引发激烈讨论。

One authority FangHong top-list cadres(alias)See micro bo on"Civil servants in the future will not be system abandon"After the discussion of,Specially the link to a mutual known as the civil servants circle in the QQ group,Caused heated debate.

　　方洪42岁，副科级，单位属于“清水衙门”一类。用他自己的话说，是“官没做成，钱没多少，提拔无望，未来基本看得到”。

FangHong 42,FuKeJi,Unit belong to"Water yamen"Kind of.In his own words,is"Officer didn't make it,How much money didn't,Promoted hopeless,The future basic see".

　　今年，方洪的侄子从武汉大学毕业，被其父母逼着去参加“国考”。侄子向方洪征求意见时问：“你在机关工作了这么多年，当年的理想都变成现实了吗？”

This year,FangHong nephew from graduated from wuhan university,By their parents force to go to"Countries take an examination of".Nephew to FangHong questionnaire opinion asked:"You work in authority for so many years,The ideal into reality?"

　　“差距还是蛮大的，”方洪犹豫了一会。1996年方洪刚进机关时，是单位唯一的名校毕业生，他被领导拍着肩膀说，“小伙子前途无量”。可如今，对一个40多岁的副科级闲职干部来说，前途基本无望了。他谈起刚提拔那会，隔三差五有老家人上门求办事，他总是一脸无能为力，后来，门槛也逐渐冷却下来了。“但这只是我个人情况，”方洪告诉侄子，“也有不少仕途坦荡，春风得意的。”

"The gap is still quite large,"FangHong hesitated for a while.In 1996 when FangHongGang into authority,The unit is the only school graduates,He was leading clap on the shoulder and said,"Young man is promising".But now,For a more than 40 years old FuKeJi sinecure for cadres,The future basic hopelessness.He talked about just give it,From time to time, you have LaoGuRen the door for work,He is always a face of powerless,later,Threshold also gradually cooling down."But this is only my personal situation,"FangHong tell nephew,"There are many official career straight,Of brilliance."

　　本次针对公务员群体的调查中，像方洪一样有失落感的不在少数。38.53%受访者认为“现实与预期相差太远”，其次是“部分达到了预期”(27.74%），排第三的是“基本达到预期”（16.91%），最后是“现实比预期还要好”(16.82%)。

The civil servant group according to the survey,Like FangHong have loss is not a few.38.53% of respondents thought"Reality and expectations are too far away",The second is"Part to achieve the expected"(27.74%),Third is"Basic to meet the expected"(16.91%),The last is"Reality is better than expected good"(16.82%).

　　假如人生可以重来会怎么选择？42.67%受访者还是会选择当公务员，31.66%的人表示不会，另有25.67%的人表示说不清。

If life can be redone will how to choose?42.67% of respondents would still choose as civil servants,31.66% said they won't,Another 25.67% said they can't tell.

　　两组数据，看似矛盾，时评人马龙生如此解读这种现象：“一方面是公务员在面临较高利益预期与较大现实压力的反差下，有一种愤世与失意交织的浮躁感；另一方面，与社会公众的平均生活形态相比，自己又觉得现有的一切得之不易，因而不愿退出公务员队伍。”

Two sets of data,contradiction,Review MaLongSheng so people reading this kind of phenomenon:"On the one hand is a civil servant in the face higher interest expectations and the reality of the large pressure under the contrast,There is a the anger and disappointment interlaced fickleness feeling;On the other hand,And the social public's average life than form,And think of all the precious existing,So don't want to exit civil service."

仅8.64%受访公务员认为被体制抛弃“完全没可能” Only 8.64% of civil servants think be system abandon"impossible"

　　方洪是在一个国企大院里长大的，对上世纪90年代席卷全国的下岗潮记忆深刻。

FangHong is in a large state-owned enterprises grew up in,In the 1990 s sweeping the country laid-off tide memory deep.

　　工厂破产那一年，还是大学生的方洪暑假回家，看见曾经实权在握的副厂长踩着三轮车从屋门口经过，不胜唏嘘。就在十年前，这家机械厂普通工人的收入，比当地机关干部还高，多少人宁愿进工厂也不进机关。

The factory bankruptcy that year,Or college students' FangHong summer vacation home,See once the real power of the factory director stepping on a tricycle from the door of the room after,Very sigh.In ten years ago,The machinery plant of ordinary workers income,The local authority than cadre is still high,Many people would rather into the factory also not into authority.

　　“中国变化太快了，十年河东十年河西，我们这些底层公务员，今后会不会遭到类似变故？”在“国考”报名人数冲破130万的那个晚上，方洪在公务员圈子QQ群里抛出这个问题，引发的讨论挺激烈。

"China is changing so quickly,Ten years hedong hexi ten years,We these bottom civil servants,The future will not be suffered to similar changes?"in"Countries take an examination of"Enrolment to break through 1.3 million that night,FangHong in civil servants circle in the QQ group out this problem,Cause discussion is quite strong.

　　在可预见的将来，公务员会不会遭遇大规模精简？本次针对公务员群体的调查显示，18.00%的人认为“这是必然的”，20.90%的人觉得“可能性非常大”，认为“有这种可能”的占30.82%，认为“可能性很小”的占21.64%，认为“完全没可能”的仅占8.64%。

In the foreseeable future,Civil servants will encounter large-scale downsizing?The civil servant group according to the survey,18.00% of the people think"This is inevitable",20.90% of the people think"Possibility is very large",think"It could be the"Accounted for 30.82%,think"Possibility is very small"Accounted for 21.64%,think"impossible"Only to account for 8.64%.

　　针对非公务员群体的调查，与上述结果接近。五项比值分别是19.85%、17.08%、29.59%、25.19%和8.29%。

According to the investigation of civil servants group,And the above results close to.Five ratio respectively is 19.85%/17.08%/29.59%/25.19% and 8.29%.

39.10%受访公务员“提前准备退路，以防万一” 39.10% of civil servants"Retreat ahead,Just in case"

　　在湖南某省直机关工作的陈奕（化名），就属于不看好未来的那一类公务员。

A ShengZhi authority in hunan ChenYi work(alias),Do not expect the future belong to the kind of civil servants.

　　她每天会花两个小时学英语，并准备拿一个在职研究生学历。“干部提拔越来越看重学历，只有爬上去才不会被淘汰，”她的另一个算盘是，“即使有天被淘汰了，有一技在身，也不怕被饿着。”

She will spend two hours every day to learn English,And prepare to take a on-the-job graduate degree."Cadres give more and more value degree,Only climb up won't be eliminated,"Her another abacus is,"Even if one day be eliminated,There is a body's,Also fear of being hungry."

　　本次调查中，像陈奕这样会“提前准备‘退路’，以防万一”的公务员占39.10%。“退路”多种多样，比如学习技能，争取调入要害部门……

The survey,Like ChenYi it will"Are prepared ahead of‘retreat’,Just in case"Civil servant accounted for 39.10%."retreat"various,Such as learning skills,To call the key department...

　　“这些都无可厚非。”湖南省华夏廉洁文化研究会秘书长汪太理觉得，要引起重视的是以下几类：违规从事第二职业、非法敛财、外逃。

"These are understandable."The Chinese clean and honest culture research association secretary general of hunan province WangTaiLi feel,Pay attention to is the following categories:Illegal moonlighting/Illegal PRD/flight.

　　只有10.11%的人考虑辞职下海或深造。事实上，自1996年实行辞退制度以来至2003年的8年间，公务员人员流动率为1.25%，是名副其实的“中国最稳定群体”。

Only 10.11% of the people thinking of quitting the job sea or for further study.In fact,Since 1996 the dismissal since system in 2003 to 8 years,Civil servants staff turnover rate is 1.25%,Is worthy of the name"China's most stable group".

　　剩下50.79%的对职业前景不看好者，都选择了“走一步看一步，不变应万变”。

The remaining 50.79% of the career prospects from ranking,All chose"Go one step at a time,Changeless should changing".

　　看似矛盾的选择，背后却各有各的理由。

Seemingly contradictory choice,But behind each has its own reason.

　　31.44%的受访者是认为“即使遭遇精简，届时也会拥有比普通人更多的社会资源”。支持者以上世纪90年代那些下海的公务员为例凭借与体制内千丝万缕的联系，在市场竞争中占尽先机。

31.44% of respondents is that"Even if encounter streamline,At the appointed time will also have more than ordinary people of social resources".Supporters of the 90 s above the sea of civil servants as an example with the connection of countless ties in with the system,In market competition advantage of all.

　　此外还有“担心变动的风险和成本过高”者（18.19%）、随遇而安者（16.00%），以及“自信拥有市场所需的技能”者（13.70%）。

In addition"Change worry about the risk and cost is too high"person(18.19%)/Take the world as it is(16.00%),and"Confidence has the skills needed to market"person(13.70%).

　　还有一类受访者颇具代表性，“就算真有那天，我也退休或快退休了”（20.66%）。42岁的方洪就是持此观点的一员，他觉得，倒是当前那些拼命想挤进公务员队伍的年轻人，应该好好考虑下这个问题。

And those respondents rather representative,"Even really have that day,I also retired or quick retire"(20.66%).42 years old FangHong is a member of the hold this view,He felt,It is current those who desperately tried to get into the civil service team of young people,Should consider the problem.