访《人口形势的变化和人口政策的调整》总协调人、中国发展研究基金会秘书长卢迈

visit[The population situation changes and population policy adjustment]General coordinator/The China development research foundation secretary general LuMai

　　人口政策是关系国家长远发展和民族前途的大事。长期以来，我们一直认为，我国人口基数大、增长快。但是，2010年的第六次人口普查显示，中国人口领域发生了重大变化。人口走向负增长、生育率水平偏低、年龄结构不合理、老龄化进程加速等等，这一个个问题给未来中国经济社会发展蒙上了一层阴影。

Population policy is related to the national long-term development and national future event.For a long time,We always think that,Our country large population base/Growing faster.but,In 2010, the sixth census shows,China's population, great changes take place in the field.Population to negative growth/The low fertility level/Age structure is not reasonable/Aging process accelerated, etc,This a problem for China's future economic and social development to receive up one layer shadow.

　　近日，中国发展研究基金会在京发布了《人口形势的变化和人口政策的调整》大型研究报告。《经济参考报》记者就人口形势的变化会对我国经济社会造成哪些影响，我们是否能安全化解这些不利影响，以及未来人口政策向何处去等问题专访了项目总协调人、中国发展研究基金会秘书长卢迈。

recently,The China development research foundation released in Beijing[The population situation changes and population policy adjustment]Large study report.[Economic reference to]Reporters were will change with the change of the population situation for China's economic and social causes which influence,Whether we can resolve these adverse effect on safety,And future population policy problems such as: where to go to the big project general coordinator/The China development research foundation secretary general LuMai.

我国人口结构发生重要变化 China's population structure has important changes

　　《经济参考报》：近些年来中国人口状况都发生了哪些变化？

[Economic reference to]:In recent years China's population are what are the changes?

　　卢迈：2010年第六次全国人口普查结果显示，2000年至2010年期间，中国人口年均增长率为0.57%，远远低于上一个10年的1.07%，增长速度明显放缓；与此同时，人口结构发生了巨大变化：2010年，中国60岁以上的老龄人口达到1.78亿，所占比例从1982年的7.62%增至13.26%，0-14岁人口所 占 的 比 重 则 由3 3 .5 9 %减 至16.60%。据预测，65岁及以上老年人口比例，将在2027年和2035年分别突破15%和20%，2050年将超过25%。

LuMai:2010 sixth national census results,Between 2000 and 2010,China's population with an average annual growth rate of 0.57%,Far less than on a 10 years of 1.07%,Slowed considerably;meanwhile,Population structure changed:In 2010,,China's ageing population over the age of 60 to 178 million,The proportion of from 7.62% in 1982 to 13.26%,0-14 years old population accounts for more than double the 3 3. 5 9% reduced to 16.60%.According to the forecast,65 years old and above the percentage of older people,In 2027 and 2035, respectively 15% and 20% breakthrough,2050 will more than 25%.

　　按照联合国的标准，60岁以上老年人口在人口中的比例达到10%，或者65岁及以上的老年人口占总人口的比例达到7%，一个国家或地区就成为老龄化社会。中国早在2000年就已经进入老龄化社会。

According to the standard of the United Nations,Those aged 60 to 10% of the population,Or 65 years old and above the percentage of the population of the elderly KouZhan reached 7%,A country or region will become an aging society.China as early as in 2000 has already entered an aging society.

　　随着人口老龄化的加速和劳动年龄人口增长趋势的逆转，中国人口总抚养比在2011年降到谷底(0.38)，随后开始缓慢上升，2020年升至0.4，2033年升至0.5以上。

With the rapidity of the population's aging and labor age population growth trend reversal,China's population total raising than in 2011 dropped to the bottom(0.38),Then slowly began to rise,Rose to 0.4 in 2020,In 2033 to more than 0.5.

　　《经济参考报》：这种人口结构的变化对中国来说意味着什么？

[Economic reference to]:This kind of the change of the structure of population mean for China?

　　卢迈：也就是说，如果生育水平不能出现实质性的回升，按照联合国的预测，本世纪中叶以后中国人口抚养比依然持续上升，2070年将达到0.8的超高水平，即4个劳动力至少需要供养2个老人和1个小孩。

LuMai:That is,If fertility level can't appear substantial rebound,According to the prediction of the United Nations,After the middle of this century China's population than raising still continue to rise,2070 will reach 0.8 high level,That is at least four labor to support two old man and one child.

　　人口年龄结构中这种此消彼长的变化，说明中国人口增长过快的趋势已经扭转，同时也预示着多年来对经济发展作出了巨大贡献的人口红利正在消失，老龄化成为中国未来经济社会可持续发展必须面对的重大问题。

Population age structure characterised by this change,That the Chinese fast population growth trend has torsion,At the same time also indicates the for many years of economic development made a great contribution to the demographic dividend is disappearing,Aging become China's future economic and social sustainable development must face significant problems.

　　《经济参考报》：人口老龄化将会给中国社会带来哪些影响？

[Economic reference to]:An aging population will give Chinese society bring which influence?

　　卢迈：日本的经验显示，即使是在收入水平高、劳动力素质高、技术先进和基础设施完备的国家，老龄化也很可能导致经济的大幅度减速。1990年，日本的老龄化水平即65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重达到11.9%，不久之后人口抚养比就迅速提高。在人口结构发生这种变化的同时，日本经济增长速度也出现急剧的逆转，从减速开始直到停滞。

LuMai:Japan's experience shows,Even in income level is high/Of labor force quality high/Advanced technology and infrastructure complete country,Aging of population is likely to lead to economic greatly reduction.In 1990,,Japan's aging level that is 65 years old and above population proportion of the total population 11.9%,Shortly after the population than raising quickly improve.In the structure in the changes at the same time,Japan's economic growth rate also appears a sharp reversal,From slowdown until stagnation.

　　2011年，中国65岁及以上人口占总人口比重为9.1%，已经接近于日本1990年经济增长减速时的老龄化水平，在“十二五”时期，中国还将像日本一样，经历迅速的人口抚养比提高。比日本当时的情形更严峻的是，中国当前还面临着“未富先老”的挑战。

In 2011,,China's 65 years old and above population accounts for the proportion of the total population 9.1%,Have close to Japanese economic growth in 1990 when slowing down aging level,in"1025"period,China will also like Japan,Experience rapid population than improving raising.Than Japan happened at that time is more serious,China is currently facing"Get old before it gets rich"challenge.

　　一方面，劳动年龄人口增量减少与高速经济增长，共同导致普通劳动力的短缺从而工资上涨。劳动力成本提高反映为劳动密集型产业的比较优势的相对弱化。这意味着产业结构必须要向资本和技术密集型升级。另一方面，在人均收入刚刚跨入中等偏上水平的发展阶段上，中国在物质资本丰裕程度上尚不具有明显的优势，在劳动力素质和科学技术水平上也存在着与发达国家的巨大差距，在资本和技术密集型产业上也不具有比较优势。

On the one hand,Working age population increment reduce and high-speed economic growth,Common causes common labor shortages and rising wages.Labor costs for labor-intensive industries to improve reflect comparative advantage is relatively weak.This means that the industrial structure must be to capital and technology intensive upgrade.On the other hand,In the average per capita income has just entered above the average level of development stage,China in the material capital abundance extent still do not have obvious advantages,In the quality of the labor force and science and technology level, there also exist with the developed countries of the big gap,In the capital and technology intensive industries also does not have comparative advantage.

　　在一定程度上，可以把中国“未富先老”的人口转变特征对经济增长的潜在不利影响理解为：第一，过早地失去赶超发达国家的后发优势；第二，失去了对仍具有人口红利的发展中国家的竞争优势；第三，尚未获得发达国家所应具有的技术创新优势。因此，无论是面对高收入国家还是低收入国家，中国原有的竞争优势都在减弱，这无疑加剧了转变经济发展方式的紧迫性。

To a certain extent,Can put China"Get old before it gets rich"The demographic transition characteristics on economic growth potential adverse effect for understanding:The first,Early to catch up with the developed countries to lose the advantage of backwardness;The second,Lost to still have population dividen developing country competitive advantage;The third,Has not yet won the developed countries should have the advantages of technology innovation.therefore,Whether in the face of high income countries or low and middle-income countries,The Chinese original competitive advantage are weakened,This undoubtedly exacerbated the transformation of the mode of economic development of urgency.

　　人口老龄化的影响不仅仅局限于经济领域，给家庭和社会也带来了冲击。老龄化加重了家庭照料老年人的负担。

The influence of population aging is not just limited to the economic field,To the family and social also brought impact.Aging of population increased family care for the elderly burden.

我们尚未准备好应对老龄社会 We have not yet ready to deal with in the old age society

　　《经济参考报》：可以说中国人口老龄化的速度大大超出预期，老龄化社会提前到来，那么今天的中国做好准备了吗？

[Economic reference to]:It can be said that China's population will age faster than expected,Aging society forward,So today's China ready?

　　卢迈：我认为，面对快速到来的老龄社会，中国尚未做好准备。

LuMai:I think,In the face of rapid coming in the old age society,China has not yet ready.

　　首先，制度安排滞后。中国现行的社会养老保险制度、医疗保险制度、退休制度、个人所得税制度，以及相关的社会政策和公共服务体系等，都不适应老龄社会的需求。从这个意义上讲，中国老龄化与社会发展关系的突出矛盾是“未备先老”，即社会对老龄化的到来准备不足。

First of all,System arrangement lag.China's current social endowment insurance system/Medical insurance system/Retirement system/Individual income tax system,And related social policy and public service system, etc,All don't adapt to the needs of the aging society.In this sense,China's aging population and social development relationship is prominent contradictions"Has not prepared to old",The arrival of the aging society to which to inadequate preparation.

　　其次，财力准备不足。一方面，养老保障的公共支出存在较大缺口。中国公共支出中用于社会养老保险的比例并不高，养老保险制度覆盖面也较窄，相当一部分老年人的养老金给付水平较低，2011年企业养老金替代率仅为42.9%，农村地区的养老金水平也只有每月55元。另一方面，现行的社会养老保障制度潜伏着财务危机。有近一半省份的养老金收不抵支，且养老金投资收益率过低，年均收益率长期不足2%，低于同期的通胀率，意味着养老金缩水。随着老年人口的迅速增长，特别是被制度覆盖的老年人口迅速增长，社会养老保险金支出将大幅增长，这必将给中国社会养老保障制度带来更大的冲击。

secondly,Financial resources to inadequate preparation.On the one hand,Old-age security of public expenditure there is a big gap.China's public expenditure used in the proportion of social endowment insurance is not high,Endowment insurance system coverage is narrow,Quite a number of the old pension payment level is low,2011 enterprise pension substitution rate is only 42.9%,The rural areas pension level also only 55 yuan per month.On the other hand,The current social old-age security system lie dormant financial crisis.Nearly half provinces do not receive a pension allowance,And pension investment rate of return is too low,With an average annual rate of return less than 2% for a long time,Less than in the same period of inflation,Means that the pension shrink.With the rapid increase of the elderly population,Especially be system coverage of aging population growth,Social endowment insurance gold spending will increase significantly,This will give China's social old-age security system to bring about greater impact.

　　第三，公共服务体系薄弱。目前我国在城市规划、基础设施建设等方面均未考虑到老年人的需求。在公共服务体系中，老年人公共服务是最为薄弱的环节。尤其在农村地区，由于年轻人的大量外流和为老服务设施的基本空白，老年人的生活面临着更大的困境。

The third,Public service system is weak.At present our country in the city planning/Infrastructure and so on were not considering the needs of elderly.In the public service system,The old public service is the most weak link.Especially in rural areas,Because a large number of young and old service facilities for the outflow of the basic blank,The life of the aged face greater difficulties.

建议分两步走放开二胎 Suggest two steps let go of two foetuses

　　《经济参考报》：面对人口年龄结构变化带来的影响，报告中提出未来的政策取向是什么？

[Economic reference to]:In the face of the population age structure change effects,The report puts forward policy orientation is what?

　　卢迈：在独生子女政策实行30多年后的今天，人口问题的主要矛盾已经不是过快增长，以独生子女政策为核心的人口政策体系已经滞后于新的人口变动趋势，不适应统筹解决人口问题和实现现代化宏伟目标的要求，需要根据新形势、新情况进行政策调整。

LuMai:In the one-child policy practice more than 30 years later,The population problem of the principal contradiction is not too fast growth,With one-child policy as the core of the population policy system has been lagging behind the new population change trend,Don't adapt to plan as a whole to solve the population problem and achieve modernization grand goal requirements,Need according to the new situation/The new situation of policy adjustment.

　　近些年，各地在保持现行生育政策稳定的同时，对本地生育政策进行了微调，主要是进行“双独”(即夫妇双方为独生子女的可以生育两个孩子)或“单独”(指夫妇一方为独生子女的可以生育两个孩子)的实验。其结果显示，这些政策的实施并未产生显著的生育率变化，这直接反映了中国经济社会生活和人口形势的深层次变化具备了生育政策调整的条件。与此同时，自20世纪80年代在一些地区施行“二孩”政策的地区的实践也证明了，如果具备一定条件，实施二孩政策可以达到控制人口过快增长的目标，又能受到群众拥护。

In recent years,Everywhere in keep active birth policy stable at the same time,To the local birth policy adjustment,Is the main"Double alone"(That couple for the singleton female can have two children)or"alone"(Refers to the couple a party for the singleton female can have two children)experiment.The results show that,The implementation of these policies did not produce significant fertility rate change,This directly reflects China's economic and social life and the population situation of deep changes with the birth policy adjustment conditions.meanwhile,Since the 1980 s, and in some areas"Two children"Policy areas of practice also proved,If have a certain condition,The construction of the second child policy to control the rapid population growth is its goal,By the masses and support.

　　报告提出生育政策调整最关键也是最直接的依据，是对不同生育方案下人口变化的情景预测。结果表明，对生育政策的调整最为合适的方式是稳步推进。

The report proposes birth policy adjustment is the most important and also the most direct basis,Is the family under different scheme of population change situation forecast.The results show that,The policy of birth to adjust the most appropriate way is to steadily.

　　《经济参考报》：报告提出的近期调整生育政策的具体方案是什么？

[Economic reference to]:Report recent adjustment birth policy of the specific scheme is what?

　　卢迈：报告提出的近期调整生育政策的方案是分放二孩。第一步，在城市地区和严格执行一孩政策的农村地区即刻放开二胎；第二步，2015年，在实行“一孩半”政策的地区放开二胎，实现全国全面放开二胎的目标。

LuMai:Report recent adjustment birth policy scheme is put two children.The first step,In urban areas and strict implementation of a child policy of rural area immediate release two foetuses;The second step,In 2015,,The implementation of the"A boy and a half"Policy areas open two foetuses,To realize the national comprehensive open two foetuses goal.

　　分放二孩政策的确定，基于对不同方案下人口变化的预测和比较。以2010年全国第六次人口普查的人口总量13.40亿为起点，以这次普查的人口性别、年龄结构以及总和生育率1.5为基础，报告分别对“政策不变”、“同放二孩”、“同放单独”、“分放单独”和“分放二孩“五种方案下的人口变化做了预测和模拟。

Put two children to determine the policy,Based on the different schemes population change prediction and comparison.In 2010, the sixth national population census of the total population of 1.34 billion as a starting point,In the census of the population sex/Age structure and the total fertility rate 1.5 as the foundation,Report to respectively"Policy unchanged"/"Put two children with"/"Put alone with"/"Put alone"and"Put two children"Five kinds of scheme of the population change has made the forecast and the simulation.

　　结果表明，仍保持现行的生育政策不变不符合中国人口发展的实际和要求。而全国同时全面放开二孩将会造成短时期内生育水平以及出生人口的急剧增加，对社会保障、教育、就业等产生冲击和不稳定的隐患。“同放单独”和“分放单独”虽然可以在一定程度上避免前两种方案的弊端，但需要花费较长时间，贻误时机，且“分放单独”还存在操作上的困难。与其他调整方案的预测结果相比，“分放二孩”方案下的生育水平在短期内比“政策不变”、“同放单独”和“分放单独”方案要高，但要比“同放二孩”方案低。考虑到生育政策对人口和生育率变化的反应已经滞后，以及发达国家应对低生育率的经验和教训，我们认为，最为可行的方案是“分放二孩”，即分区域分步放开二胎，这样，既充分考虑了政策调整时间的紧迫性，又避免了人口短期内的剧烈变化。

The results show that,Remain active birth policy unchanged does not conform to China's population development actual and requirements.And at the same time the national comprehensive let go of the second child will cause the short term birth level and the rapid increase of birth population,For social security/education/Such as employment impact and unstable hidden trouble."Put alone with"and"Put alone"Although can to a certain extent, to avoid the disadvantages of former two schemes,But need to spend a long time,Delay time,and"Put alone"Still exist practical difficulties.And other adjustment scheme prediction results compared,"Put two children"Under the scheme of the fertility level than in the short term"Policy unchanged"/"Put alone with"and"Put alone"Scheme to high,But more than"Put two children with"Scheme low.Considering the birth policy on population and fertility rate change reaction has lag,And the developed countries respond to the low fertility rate of experience and lessons,We think,The most feasible scheme is"Put two children",Namely points area step let go of two foetuses,this,Both the full consideration of the policy adjustment time urgency,But also avoid the population change drastically in the short term.