预计第二季度GDP增速破八，在7.6%左右，低于第一季度的增速，这次中国经济失速下行，成为全球经济增速下降的缩影。这是危险的信号。

The second quarter GDP growth is expected to break eight，At around 7.6%，Below the rate of growth of the first quarter，The China economic stall to the downside，Become a global economic growth dropped in miniature。This is a sign of danger。

　　许多人认为，包括本人也同时呼吁，中国经济增速应该从快车道恢复到正常车道，两位数的增长是不正常的，与经济潜在增长率同步的GDP增速才健康。但允许经济增速下降有前提，即中国进行了积极的社会体制与经济结构改革，社会相对公平，经济效率提升，经济增长速度能够满足就业需求以及日渐增长的消费需求。如果上述前提条件不具备，中国经济从快车道滑落，就会陷入混乱的泥潭。

Many people think that，Including himself also called on，China's economic growth should be from a fast track back to the normal track，Double-digit growth is not normal，And the economic potential growth rate synchronization of the GDP growth to health。But allow economic growth decline has premise，The China of a positive social system and economic structure reform，Social relatively fair，Economic efficiency promotion，The pace of economic growth and employment demand to meet the increasing consumer demand。If the premise condition does not have，China's economy fell from the fast lane，They would be in the mire of the chaos。

　　中国的GDP增速下滑引发全球关注，甚至被一些西方学者认为是全球经济最不安全的因素。中国社会与经济是否安全，当然不应该仅仅由可能遭到扭曲的数据说了算，而应该由无法造假的因素以及民众的幸福感说了算。而目前出现的转型期混乱，说明市场没有在GDP下行的过程中找到应对之方。目前经济增速下降之所以危险，原因在于中国的经济结构没有从根本上调整。从地方政府到大型企业，面对目前的情况一筹莫展。

China's GDP growth which global downturn attention，Even some western scholars think is the global economy is not the most safety factor。Chinese society and economy is safe，Of course should not only by distorted data by may have the final say，And by the factors should be cannot be counterfeited and people's happiness have the final say。And the emerging transition chaos，Not that the market in the process of GDP downside to find the party。The current economic growth is a dangerous drop，Reason is that the economic structure of China, not radically adjustment。From the local government to large enterprises，Facing the situation bewildered。

　　《证券时报》报道，5月24日，宝钢湛江项目获批，湛江市长亲吻核准批文一吻成名，成为著名的“吻增长”代表。仅隔一个多月，宝钢湛江项目除了发电厂外，其他项目均已停工，5月31日参加开工仪式的中国中冶(601618,股吧)员工已不见人影。无论“吻市长”如何真诚，无论宝钢等企业如何表演，毋庸置疑的是，钢铁企业的大面积亏损以及钢铁企业从养猪、建房寻求突围之道，说明在产能绝对过剩时代，工程上马之日就是亏损之时。

《Securities times》report，May 24,，Baosteel zhanjiang project is approved，Zhanjiang mayor approved a kiss kiss endorsement of the famous，Become famous“Kiss growth”representative。The only for more than a month，In addition to the power plant project of baosteel zhanjiang，Other projects are already shut down，On 31 May attend the opening ceremony of the China ZhongYe(601618,Shares it)Staff has disappeared。No matter“Kiss the mayor”How to sincerely，No matter such as baosteel enterprise how to perform，There is no doubt that is，Iron &steel enterprise losses as well as iron and steel enterprise from large raising pigs、For the word of their house，In that capacity absolute age of excess，Progress project is the day of losses。

　　媒体算了一笔账：去年多数钢铁公司亏损，宝钢股份(600019,股吧)盈利主要是因为向大股东出售特钢资产，宝钢湛江项目697亿元投资本身就是一笔巨大的机会成本，仅以4%的年资金使用成本计算，宝钢一年损失的机会成本就达28亿元。此外，钢铁行业的高额折旧也是一项挑战，以15年折旧计算，一年下来该项目在设备、厂房等方面的折旧也要以数十亿元计。即便宝钢家大业大，也禁不起这样的折腾。从全球来看，大型钢铁企业的兼并已经停顿。

Media calculate a bill：Most of the steel company losses last year，Baosteel shares(600019,Shares it)Earnings mainly because of the big shareholders to sell steel assets，Baosteel zhanjiang project 69.7 billion yuan investment itself is a huge opportunity cost，Only 4% of the year in financial cost calculation，Baosteel a year the opportunity cost of loss reached 2.8 billion yuan。In addition，The steel industry depreciation is also a high challenge，In the 15 years depreciation computation，A year come down the project in the equipment、Workshop, and other aspects of the depreciation in billions of dollars to millions。Even the great house of baosteel，Also cannot afford such a surreal。globally，Large steel enterprise mergers had stalled。

　　中国是否会跨入中等收入陷阱，重蹈阿根廷经济发展方式？很有可能。这一结果将比日本更不如，因为日本已经借助出口与实业，完成了向现代国家的过渡，而阿根廷与东南亚诸国则未能完成过渡。

Whether China will be entered into the medium income trap，Argentina of the mode of economic development？Very likely。The results will be more than than Japan，Because Japan has resorted to using exports and industrial，Completed the transition to the modern state，And Argentina and south-east Asia, fails to complete the transition。

　　对1997年东南亚金融危机行之有效的总结之一，就是全要素生产率的下降，克鲁格曼这一观点至今值得记取。而据中国人民大学经济研究所的计算结果，1979年~2007年间，资本、劳动和全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献分别为53.5%、25.3%和21.2%。王一鸣先生的文章指出，上世纪后20年，全要素生产率的贡献率呈现上升趋势，90年代比80年代增加了20个百分点，但2000年以来，全要素生产率贡献率出现明显下降。各研究机构的具体数据不同，2000年之后全要素生产率下降则大致相同。出口上升帮了大忙，使得中国经济依然处于高速增长期。

1997 years of southeast Asian financial crisis is one of the effective summary，Is the total factor productivity drops，Krugman this view so far is worth to remember。And according to the people's university of China economic research institute, the computational results，In 1979 ~ 2007，capital、Labor and total factor productivity to economic contribution to the growth of 53.5%, respectively、25.3% and 21.2%。Mr. Wang yiming article points out，After 20 years of the last century，The contribution of total factor productivity showed a rising trend，In the 90 s than in the 80 s has increased 20%，But since 2000，Total factor productivity contribution rate appeared to decline significantly。The research institutions of different specific data，2000 years after total factor productivity decline is roughly the same。Export up a big help，Make China's economy is still in a rapid growth。

　　全要素生产率下降，说明在此期间，中国的资源与劳动力等没有得到有效配置，户籍、垄断等社会结构固化，顽固地阻碍了生产效率的提升。直到目前，地方政府对于垄断企业的青睐以及严格的资金、劳动力与信息管制，仍在制约着中国经济效率的提升。

Total factor productivity decline，That during this period，China's resources and labor and didn't get effective configuration，Census register、Monopoly and other social structure curing，Stubborn from to promote the efficiency of production。Until now，The local government for the favour of monopoly enterprises and strict capital、Labor and information control，China's economy is still in the restricted to promote the efficiency of。

　　固然，政府可以通过放松货币、刺激财政支出拉动GDP，但这是昙花一现。原因不难索解，既然大型项目已经停工，既然企业欠缺的是市场而不是资金，继续提供资金在多数情况下就是继续提供过剩的产能。只有敏感的市场化企业，能够嵌入产能紧缺行业的缝隙，就像韩国造船业能够掌握绝大多数高档订单一样。

is，The government can by loosening monetary、Stimulus spending pull GDP，But this is a flash in the pan。Reason is not hard to SuoXie，Since large project has been shutdown，Since the market and lack of enterprise is not money，Continue to provide funds in most cases is to continue to provide excess capacity。Only sensitive market enterprise，To be embedded capacity shortage occupation cracks，As south Korean shipbuilding can master the most upscale order。

　　目前，一些既得利益者在原有的体制上榨取最后一滴血液，如通过文化旅游项目等方式大举圈地，如通过银行与信托将债务链条拉到极致。他们获得项目后不想创造新的社会财富，而是通过资本货币市场大规模套现，到海外当寓公去也。放任这样的现象泛滥，中国经济还没有转型成功就先被掏空了。

At present，Some people with vested interests in the original system squeeze on the last drop of blood，Such as through the cultural tourism projects way round heavily，Such as through the bank and the trust will debt chain pull to the extreme。They get project after do not want to create new social wealth，But through the capital money market mass to cash，When YuGong overseas to also。Indulge such phenomenon spread，China's economy was not successful transformation first left。

　　保卫GDP的前提，是保卫效率。没有经济效率，一切数字都成空。

Defend the premise of the GDP，Efficiency is to defend。No economic efficiency，All the Numbers to an empty。