7月9日，大盘下跌52.77点；随后几日，均在2200点之下。同期伴随着央行一个月内再次降低存贷款利率，6月CPI进入“2”时代。

July 9,，Grail down 52.77 points；Then days，All in the below 2200。With the central bank in the same period a month loan rate down again，June CPI into“2”era。

　　北京金百镕投资管理有限公司研究总监马学进认为，短期内，市场会反复振荡寻底。好买数据显示，金百镕1期近一个月相对收益率为12.38%，同类排名位列第六。

Beijing gold the rong investment management Co., LTD, research director MaXueJin think，Short term，The market will find the repeated oscillation。Good buy data shows，Gold the rong (1) nearly a month relative return of 12.38%，Similar rankings ranked sixth。

　CPI进入“2”时代不可避免 CPI into“2”Era inevitable

　　从公布的6月份经济数据来看，通货膨胀下行的时间和幅度已经远远超出年初的市场预期，CPI进入“2”时代已不可避免。

Released in June from the economic data to see，Inflation down time and pace has already far beyond the early market expectations，CPI into“2”Times are inevitable。

　　从2011年12月开始的三次降低存款准备金率和最近一个月内的连续两次调低存贷款利率，充分反映了央行在无需忧虑通胀的条件下，可以在较长的一段时间内维持宽松的货币政策，使得全社会经济活动的成本降低，从而刺激经济逐步见底回升。

From December 2011 the first three times the deposit reserve rate and reduce a recent months for two times of lower interest rate，Fully reflects the central bank under the condition of inflation without anxiety，In a long period of time to maintain the loose monetary policy，Allows the entire social economic activities cost reduction，To stimulate the economy gradually see bottom to bounce back。

短期内仍会振荡探底 The short term will still be oscillation of exploration

　　A股目前正处于底部区域，由于宏观经济数据没有出现明确见底标志，且如前所述，宽松货币政策促进经济回升的效果需时间积累，加之市场信心的不足，短期内，市场会反复振荡寻底。

A shares are currently at the bottom area，Because of macro economic data did not appear clearly see the sign，And as mentioned，Loose monetary policy to promote economy picks up the effect of time to accumulate，Together with the shortage of market confidence，Short term，The market will find the repeated oscillation。

　　尽管近期大盘表现不佳，但许多业绩好的消费类和成长类股票已经不断走高。在未来中国经济更多强调“质”提高，而不是“量”增长的大背景下，上述两类股票仍具备很长的投资生命。

Despite recent grail to poor performance，But many consumer and grow good outstanding achievement of stocks have been rising high。China's economy in the future more emphasis“quality”improve，not“quantity”The background of growth，The above two classes of shares still has very long investment life。

　　未来A股市场“同涨同跌”的现象会逐渐弱化，普通投资者盯着大盘做个股的时代可能一去不复返。

The A share market future“With fall with up”Phenomenon will gradually weakening，Ordinary investors staring at the grail do stocks era may be gone forever。

　　中长期来看，我们对资本市场的发展持乐观向上的态度。监管层正在积极推动养老金、公积金等长期资金逐步进入股市。从成熟市场经验看，养老金等长期资本成就了美国长达20年的大牛市，长期资本的进入有利于改善市场的基础环境。

Long-term to see，We to the development of capital market hold optimistic attitude。Regulatory are actively promote pension、Provident fund and long-term capital gradually into the stock market。From mature market experience to see，Annuities long-term capital achievement of the United States for 20 years of the bull market，Long-term capital into the market foundation to improve the environment。

　　（理财周报私募实验室研究员 翟乐/文）

（Financial weekly private laboratory researchers ZhaiLe/text）