超跌股反弹第一梯队，墙的拐角处谁在曼舞 The first echelon of fall back，In the corner of the wall who ManWu

　　理财周报见习记者 郑鹏远/文

Finance ZhengPengYuan/the apprentice weekly newspaper reporters

　　等待许久，大盘继续下行，却带来一丝曙光。

Waiting for a long time，Grail continue down，But bring gleam of light。

　　6月CPI同比增长2.2%，创29个月新低，上半年GDP增长7.8%创三年来新低。

June CPI year-on-year growth of 2.2%，Gen 29 months low，GDP growth 7.8% and in the first half three year low。

　　对此，市场给予了足够的回应。7月9日，A股再次迎来“黑色星期一”，一向以估值优势见长的银行股全线下跌，沪指一举跌破2200点。7月12日，大盘在盘中创下2152点的近期新低，一直被“多头”称为“钻石底”的2132点也岌岌可危。

this，The market to give enough response。July 9,，A-share again)“Black Monday”，Always with advantages of good bank stocks valuation of the fallen，Every HuZhi below 2200 points。July 12,，The record of 2152 in pan of low point recently，Has been“bull”called“Diamond bottom”2132 points is in jeopardy。

　　一位券商营业部培训经理告诉理财周报记者，“有股民跟我打赌，说"钻石底"一定会变成"暂时底"，不破不立。”

A brokers sales training manager told finance weekly reporter，“Have people bet me that，said"Diamond bottom"Will become"Temporarily bottom"，Nothing down, nothing up。”

　　5个交易日中，大盘始终未能收复2200点关口，然而从上周三开始，指数却收获三连阳。在煤炭、有色、券商板块的带领下，大盘有望发动一轮超跌反弹。

Five trading days in，Grail has not recovered 2200 point pass，However, from start on Wednesday，Harvest index is three even Yang。In the coal、non-ferrous、Brokers plate lead，Grail is expected to launch a super fall rebound。

　　在反复考验钻石底的过程中，酿酒、农业、旅游等热点板块强势依旧，在经历了“五绝六穷”之后，市场依然期盼七翻身的出现。

In the process of test repeatedly diamond，wine、agriculture、Tourism and other hot plate is still strong，after“WuJue six poor”after，The market is still looking forward to seven of the emancipated appear。

　　银行股遭弃 煤炭股飚起 Bank stocks coal stocks have back up

　　连续降息让资金选择与银行股分道扬镳。

To slash interest rates make money choice and bank stocks drifted away。

　　中数据显示，截至7月13日，5日内银行股资金累计流出，成为两市最不被看好的板块。业内普遍认为，央行一个月内连续两次非对称降息，使得银行股盈利前景不被看好，从而令本来的具有低估优势的银行板块遭遇价值重估。

Data shows in，By July 13,，5 days of total bank capital outflow，Become two city most underrated plates。The general thought，The central bank a month two successive asymmetric to cut interest rates，Make bank shares earnings outlook underrated，To make the original have underestimated the advantage in the bank plate revaluation。

　　券商也不再捧银行股，申银万国发布公告称银行股倒在了黎明前，认为银行股难存超额收益。国金证券(600109,股吧)分析师邓婷也表示，看淡未来两年行业的基本面。降息及利率市场化的推进无疑将使得银行息差走入下行通道，银行利润增长将失去一个重要推动力。

Brokers will no longer holds bank shares，Shenyin &wanguo releases announcement to say to bank shares fell in the before dawn，Think bank shares with difficult excess profits。Countries gold securities(600109,Shares it)Analysts DengTing also said，See light the next two years the fundamentals of industry。Cut and the process of mir will undoubtedly make the Banks spreads into downlink channel，Bank profits growth will lose a important driving force。

　　与之相应的是，酿酒、旅游、农业、医药等板块抢眼。据wind数据显示，7月以来申万一级行业指数中，食品饮料、餐饮旅游、农林牧渔以及医药生物分别9.08，7.66，6.49和4.56的涨幅成为两市“四大金刚”。

And the corresponding is，wine、tourism、agriculture、Pharmaceutical sectors such as grab an eye。According to data showed that wind，Since July 1 industry in all "index，Food and beverage、Restaurant tour、Farming, forestry, fishery and biological medicine respectively 9.08，7.66，6.49 and 4.56 or become two city“Four big king kong”。

　　上周四，大盘盘中创出近期新低2152点，然而个股及板块表现却波澜起伏，两市共有21只个股涨停。前期跌幅较深的煤炭、券商和部分有色股纷纷大涨，其中煤炭股平均涨幅达到5.97%，6只个股涨停。两市“煤飞色舞”行情再现。

On Thursday，The recent plate making low 2152 points，However individual stocks and plate performances have ups and downs，Two city there are 21 individual stocks only harden。The fall of deep coal、Brokers and non-ferrous shares rose in part，Including coal stocks have gone up 5.97% on average，Six stocks harden。Two city“Coal fly color dance”Market represent。

　　煤炭板块曾在市场最低迷时为大盘注入强心剂，力挽狂澜。2010年7月，大盘创下2312点的阶段新低，然而煤炭股的爆发成功带领市场演绎“五穷六绝七翻身“的行情走势，今年一月份，沪指打下2132点的钻石底，又是煤炭股率先在沉默中爆发，雪中送炭。

Coal was in the market downturn plate for the grail when injected boost，ragazzi。July 2010，The point of a record 2312 low stage，But the outbreak of coal stocks led the market success is deduced“Five poor six off seven rolling“Market trends of，In January this year，HuZhi 2132 points at the end of a diamond，And coal stocks took the lead in the silence，Timely help。

　　然而市场对于煤炭股仍然忧心忡忡，信达证券策略分析师曾祥天表示，目前煤炭股的基本面未出现大的改善，资金做多煤炭股的动力不足。华泰证券(601688,股吧)研究员唐潇武也表示，虽然煤炭股大涨，但今年以来由于国际能源价格暴跌，国内煤炭库存依然较高，从中期基本面看，煤炭已终结10年商品牛市，当前只是价值回归之中的技术反弹。

But the market for coal stocks still worried，The securities analysts said CengXiangTian strategy，The fundamentals of the coal stocks does not appear big improvement，Funds do more coal strands of underpowered。Huatai securities(601688,Shares it)Researchers TangXiao wu also said，Although coal stocks soar，But since this year because of international energy prices plummet，Domestic coal stock remained high，From the middle fundamentals look，Coal has ended 10 years the bull market in commodities，The current value of the technology of regression is rebound。

　　虽然煤炭股前途未卜，但这也足以让市场恢复信心。财经博主“空空道人”朱建中向理财周报记者表示，他观察到煤炭股在两周前已有企稳迹象，应该不是简单的一日游行情。煤炭有色一旦企稳，将极有可能出现七翻身行情。

Although coal stocks faces an uncertain future，But it is enough to let the market restore confidence。Financial blogger“Flyover empty”ZhuJianZhong weekly newspaper reporters to financial management，He observed in coal stocks have signs of stabilising two weeks ago，Should not simple day tour market。Coal non-ferrous once stabilising，Will very likely seven turn over prices。

　　捕捉反弹 播种拐点 Capture rebound sow a turning point

　　七翻身往往让人联想到中报行情，可今年的中报并不好看。

Seven emancipated often lets a person associate to market center daily news，But this year's center daily news is not good。

　　截至目前，两市已做出中期业绩前瞻的上市公司达到1284家，占两市上市公司数的一半以上。从整体情况看，目前预增、续盈、扭亏、略增等“报喜”类型的公司总数为675家，报喜占比接近53%。申万一级行业分类显示，电子元器件、纺织服装，以及白酒、医药为主的防御性行业上半年盈利情况较好，而受经济增速下滑影响较大的建筑建材、钢铁、机械设备等行业则遍布业绩“地雷。”

So far，Two city have made a medium-term performance of forward-looking achieves 1284 listed companies，Two of the listed company, more than half of the number。From the whole situation look，At present the increase、Renewal surplus、putting、Slight increased, etc“Report good news”Type of company for a total of 675，Good news accounts for more than close to 53%。"All level 1 industry classification display，Electronic components、Textile clothing，And liquor、Mainly in the first half of the defensive medicine industry profit well，And by economic growth slowdown of the large building materials、steel、Mechanical equipment industry is in performance“mines。”

　　统计显示，今年一季度前十大流通股股东中的机构重仓股共有1870只个股，其中有349只个股今年中报预亏或预降的地雷被机构踩中，踩中几率为19%。

Statistics show that，In the first quarter of this year the top 10 of the institutions of tradable shares of heavy warehouse 1870 only stocks，There are only 349 individual stocks this year gets down the deficit or reported the mines are institutions in on，On a 19% chance of。

　　那么七月到底是否适合投资布局，在题材和板块上应当如何选择呢？

So whether July for investment layout，In the subjects and plate shall be on how to choose？

　　一名私募基金经理向理财周报记者表示：“从实盘结果来看，市场在跌破2240后出现了一个小级别的恐慌性杀跌，前期强势股票如券商、煤炭以及有色等品种出现了大幅补跌。市场很快将酝酿超跌反弹。”

A private equity fund to finance manager weekly newspaper reporters：“From the side dish，Market below 2240 appeared after a small level of panic winners，The strong stock such as brokers、Coal and colored varieties such as appeared for a fall。The market will soon be brewing super fall rebound。”

　　海贝财富投资总监武鹏隆对理财周报记者说，“即使在最惨的2008年，七月也收了阳线。从周线级别来看，下跌趋势仍然没有扭转，但是在经历了五、六月份的下跌之后，短线市场下跌动能得到一定程度释放。但是由于上市公司中报业绩下滑的普遍现象，反弹高度预计有限，七月市场将以震荡为主基调。”

Chief investment officer of WuPengLong seashells wealth financial weekly reporter said，“Even in the worst in 2008，July also took the positive line。From the weekly level and see，Still no reverse trend down，But after five、In June after falling，Short term market decline kinetic energy get some degree release。But because of the listed company performance center daily news down phenomenon，Highly limited is expected to rebound，July market will give priority to tone with shocks。”

　　他判断，市场刚刚完成某级别的五—（三）—Ⅳ结构，而某级别第四段反弹即将出现。因此，短线来看，当前市场已经孕育着一定程度的反弹预期，从盘面上看，部分市场资金也是蠢蠢欲动。建议投资者尽量不要再追前期市场上的热点，建议关注高端装备制造领域市净率低于2倍的优质上市公司。

He judge，The market has just completed MouJi other five-（three）-Ⅳ structure，But a certain level section 4 of rebound are coming in。so，Short line to see，The current market is pregnant with a certain degree of rebound expected，Look from the disk，Parts of the market funding is also stirring。Suggest investors try to stop after the hot on the market，Suggestions focus on high-end equipment manufacturing field city net rates lower than 2 times the high quality listed companies。

　　持同样观点的还有信达证券策略分析师曾祥天，他告诉理财周报记者，前期活跃的品种有些可能强者恒强，有些可能冲高回落或补跌。其中酒类、医药、地产、保险依然有表现的机会，但是要注意走势分化或补跌风险。

Hold the same view and the securities analysts CengXiangTian strategy，He told finance weekly reporter，The active varieties, some may the strong strong constant，Some may be blunt high falls or fill fell。Which wine、medicine、Real estate、Insurance still have the opportunity to express himself，But watch for differentiation trend or fall risk。

　　除了历史规律，业绩拐点也被很多人认为是应在7月进行投资布局的理由。

In addition to the historical，Performance also inflection point is considered by many people as the should be in July investment layout of reason。

　　“炒股炒预期，中报业绩的下滑早已在市场中体现出来。目前的点位非常安全，可以进行一些投资布局。”畅销理财书作者闵纬国对理财周报记者表示，市场目前安全边际非常高，有望掀起超跌反弹行情，应多关注处于业绩拐点的上市公司，坚持左侧投资的人可以提前入场。

“Stir fry expected，Performance center daily news of the downturn in the markets have reflected。The point is very safe，Can make some investment layout。”Best-selling financial book author MinWei countries to finance a weekly newspaper reporters，The market at present the safety margin is very high，A super is expected to fall rallies，Should pay more attention to in the performance of inflection point listed companies，Adhere to the left of the investment can hall in advance。