【《证券市场周刊》特约作者 陈建刚】／文 【《Securities market weekly》The author ChenJianGang engage】/ wen

　　2011年存款较以往波动更为剧烈，存贷款增长季节性特征突出，呈现出季末冲高、季初回落的明显特征（特别是储蓄存款），一方面源于银行季末往往会加大揽储力度，保证季末存款时点数；另一方面源于理财产品通常设定为季末到期，季初自动购买为下一期理财产品。客户在理财到期后一般并不将资金转出，从而形成大量存款沉淀。

2011 deposits much more intense than ever to volatility，Loan growth seasonal characteristic is prominent，Present a season high blunt、The apparent characteristics of fall season（Especially savings），On the one hand from Banks tend to increase reservoir takes the season strength，Ensure when the season deposit points；On the other hand from financial products usually set to expire season，Early the next issue for automatic buy financial products。Customers in the financial management is not usually after the end of the funds to turn out，So as to form a large deposit precipitation。

　　6月7日晚，央行宣布将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限调整至1.1倍；8日，五大行率先将活期存款上浮10%至0.44%，1年期（含）以下定期存款利率也均不同程度上浮，中小银行立即跟随上调。当前中小银行已将一年期（含）以下定期存款利率全部上浮至1.1倍。7月5日第二次降息后的情形与此类似。

June 7 late，The central bank announced it will financial institutions deposit interest rate of the upper limit of the range of floating adjust to 1.1 times；8，The five line will demand deposits rise 10% to 0.44%，The one-year（contain）The following fixed deposit rates are also different levels rise，Small and medium-sized Banks immediately following the increase。The small and medium-sized Banks already the benchmark one-year（contain）The following fixed deposit rates rise to 1.1 times all。On July 5, cut interest rates for the second time after the circumstances and similar。

　　火爆揽储、存款剧烈波动以及存款利率迅速上浮至1.1倍，背后折射出的是存款竞争白热化，一方面存款业务本身是各行的基础性及核心业务，“存款立行”理念根深蒂固；另一方面2011年起实行的严格日均监管对存款竞争起到了推波助澜的作用。

Hot embrace store、Deposit and sharp fluctuations in deposit rates rise to 1.1 times more quickly，Reflected from the deposit is behind the intensified competition，On the one hand deposit business itself is all the basic and core business，“Deposit made do”Idea deeply rooted；On the other hand since 2011, the average daily supervision of strictly to deposit competition played the important role。

　　

监管实际作用有限 The actual supervision limited role

　　上世纪90年代，银行信贷规模增速较快，经营风险累积。贷存比指标首先在1995年《商业银行法》中提出，“贷款余额与存款余额的比例不得超过75%。”当时的背景是90年代中期，政府实施宽松的货币政策，银行信贷持续扩张过快导致经营风险增大。监管层意在通过加强银行资产负债控制，维护银行体系的安全稳健运行。

The 1990 s，The scale of the bank credit growth faster，Business risk accumulated。DaiCunBi index first in 1995《Commercial Banks》Put forward in，“The loan balance with the proportion of the balance shall not exceed 75%。”At that time is the background of the 90 s，The government carries out the loose monetary policy，Bank credit to continue to expand too fast business risk increases。Regulatory by strengthening the bank assets and liabilities to control，Maintain safe and steady operation of the banking system。

　　2003年修订后的《商业银行法》保留了贷存比指标。2003年贸易顺差持续扩大，在强制结售汇制度下，外汇占款快速上升并推动M2高速增长，流动性过剩风险增加。当年修订后的《商业银行法》仍保留了这一规定，以控制银行放贷冲动。

In 2003 the revised《Commercial Banks》Keep the DaiCunBi index。In 2003, expanding trade surplus，The mandatory below writtens guarantee carry out assembles a system，Foreign exchange combines a rapid rise and promote M2 high growth，Increased risk of excess liquidity。That year the revised《Commercial Banks》Still keep the rules，To control the bank lending impulse。

　　2009年，为了加大对经济发展的信贷支持力度。银监会一度允许有条件的中小银行适当突破，当年信贷大规模扩张，同比增速达31.74%，M2增速也上升至27.7%。为了抑制信贷扩张，2010年监管层重新要求银行需在季末满足75%的要求（时点考核）；到2011年一季度则是要求按月申报，6月份进一步细化至日均考核，即月日均贷款/月日均存款

2009 years，In order to increase the economic development of credit support。Banking regulatory commission is allowed once for small and middle-sized bank proper breakthrough，When the credit large expansion，Year-on-year growth of 31.74%，M2 rate rose from 27.7% to。In order to curb credit expansion，2010 regulatory requirements should be in the end of the bank to meet the requirement of 75%（Assessment at）；By 2011 quarter is demanded by the month to declare，June further refinement to average daily examination，That month average loan/month average deposit

　　贷存比在控制信贷增速方面确有实效。20世纪初期，银行业处于信贷快速扩张的野蛮生长时期，资产规模增加方式以信贷为主。新增和信贷增速高度相关，通过监管能直接有效地防止银行信贷过度扩张。2011年以来，该指标对股份制银行信贷约束作用更加突出。当逼近或超过75%时，股份制信贷投放明显较少（2011年2、7、10月和2012年1月）。

DaiCunBi credit growth is in control of the effect。The early twentieth century，The banking industry in credit the rapid expansion of savage growth period，The largest assets to increase the way the credit to give priority to。New and credit growth highly relevant，Through direct supervision can effectively prevent excessive bank credit expansion。Since 2011，The indicators of the joint-stock bank credit restraint function more outstanding。When approaching or exceed 75%，Share-holding system significantly fewer credit supply（February 2011、7、October and 1 January 2012）。

　　当前贷存比对商业银行流动性的指向作用下降。突破监管上限表明银行流动性风险增加的一个重要条件是，银行资金来源主要是存款，且缺乏其他有效渠道来弥补流动性；贷款是主要资金运用方式。但目前银行资产负债配置日趋多元化，传统存贷款业务占比下降。该指标已不能充分反映银行业的风险和实现监管目标，流动性监测指标的作用已弱化。

The current DaiCunBi to commercial Banks of liquidity to function decline。Breakthrough supervision that the bank liquidity risk increase cap on one of the most important condition is，Bank financing source is mainly deposits，And lack of other effective channel to make up liquidity；The loan fund application is the main way。But the bank assets and liabilities configuration increasingly diverse，Deposit accounts for traditional are down。The index has not fully reflect the risk of banking supervision and realize the goal，Liquidity monitoring index role has been weakening。

　　上市银行同业资产占比由2004年的14.8%上升至2012年一季度的29.6%，贷款占比从56.2%降至48.7%；同期同业负债占比由6%上升至15.1%，存款占比从90.1%下降到79.7%。其中股份制银行负债多元化特征更为明显，如兴业银行(601166,股吧)同业负债占比已达41%。银行的资金渠道不再局限于存款，未来随着金融市场发展，存款占比下降趋势将延续。

Listed Banks of assets accounted for by 2004 than increasing from 14.8% in 2012 to 29.6% in the first quarter，Loans accounted for than from 56.2% to 48.7%；Debt than the same period of from 6% of rose from 15.1% to，Deposit accounts for than dropped from 90.1% to 79.7%。Among them the joint-stock Banks liabilities diversified feature is more obvious，If the bank(601166,Shares it)Trade accounts for debt than are up 41%。Bank capital channel are no longer limited to deposit，The future with the financial market development，Deposit accounts for decline than will continue。

　　另外，在银监会的考核口径中，存款口径仅包括一般性存款，不包含代理性财政存款和同业存款，而这两部分也均是银行流动性的重要来源。贷存比指标仅能体现于信贷相对于一般性存款增长情况，不能涵盖表外业务敞口对流动性的影响。在当前表外业务占比较大环境下，对银行业流动性监测作用下降。此外，仅仅是对存贷款总量上的衡量，忽视了不同信贷资产的变现能力和存款稳定性的考量。

In addition，In the assessment of CBRC caliber，Deposit diameter only includes general deposit，Do not contain and financial savings and rational inter-bank savings，And the two parts are also is an important source of Banks' liquidity。DaiCunBi index can only reflect in credit relative to the general deposit growth situation，Can not cover off-balance-sheet exposures to the influence of liquidity。In the current off-balance-sheet accounts for more environment，In banking liquidity monitoring function decline。In addition，Just the total amount of funds to measure，Ignore the different credit assets liquidation ability and deposit stability considerations。

　　发达国家并不注重贷存比的监管。目前仅有中国和韩国将其作为监管指标，大多数国家仅将其作为流动性监测指标，并没有强制性要求。美国、欧洲、英国长期在100%以上，这是由于国外成熟经济体存款占银行负债比重较低，且金融市场高度发达，可通过各种金融工具弥补流动性。

Developed countries don't pay close attention to DaiCunBi regulation。The only China and South Korea as a regulatory index，Most countries only as a liquidity monitoring index，And no mandatory requirements。The United States、Europe、For a long time in Britain more than 100%，This is because foreign mature economies of bank deposit liabilities a small proportion，And financial market is highly developed，But through all kinds of financial tools make up liquidity。

　　

监管的负面作用 The negative effect of supervision

　　贷存比监管并非不能规避。银行不断通过表外业务创新以规避监管，将本应进入表内的贷款转至表外降低。如2010年的银信合作产品和2011年的票据买断式回购和同业代付业务。

DaiCunBi supervision is not cannot be avoided。Banks have been using off-balance-sheet innovation to avoid regulation，Will this should go into the loan inside the watch outside the watch turns to reduce。Such as the 2010 products and 2011 such cooperation of buyout repo and trade bills paid on business。

　　长期严格监管使银行信贷能力受到严重限制，表内信贷扩张受阻与实体经济旺盛需求形成尖锐矛盾，导致中国影子银行体系和民间借贷规模快速扩张。这两部分所创造的诸多流动性并未在政策当局的统计和监测体系中，对金融风险控制形成挑战。

Strict control make long-term bank credit capacity by severely restricted，Inside the watch credit expansion blocked from the real economy form sharp conflict between strong demand，Shadow banking system in China and folk lending scale expansion。The two parts of the many created liquidity in the policy of the authorities did not statistics and monitoring system，On the financial risk control form challenge。

　　金融危机以来，监管层着力于推行以逆周期为基本导向的监管框架，以降低银行盈利的波动性和顺周期特征。而贷存比监管具有一定的顺周期特征，同现行政策框架相悖。

Since the financial crisis，Regulatory focused on the implementation of inverse cycle as the basic orientation of the regulatory framework，In order to reduce the volatility of the Banks' earnings and cycle characteristics。And DaiCunBi supervision has certain features the cycle，With the current policy framework personality。

　　央行目前使用差别准备金工具并辅以窗口指导来控制贷款投放总量和进度。差别准备金是典型的逆周期调控工具，银行当年的信贷额度上限受制于宏观经济热度及自身资本充足率水平。另外，在新资本管理办法下，银行能够支撑的最大杠杆已经下降一半，严格的资本充足率使银行投资杠杆受到严格限制，对信贷增长形成约束。

Central Banks are using the difference and window guidance with reserve tools to control the loan on the amount and progress。The difference is the inverse of the typical reserve cycle regulation tools，Bank credit line that is subject to limit macroeconomic heat and their own capital adequacy levels。In addition，In the new capital management under way，The bank will support the biggest leverage has fallen by half，Strict capital adequacy ratio make investment banking lever is restricted，Credit growth to form the constraint。

　　新监管框架中提出了流动性覆盖率和净稳定融资比率两个指标，使得流动性监管更加合理细致。流动性覆盖率用来衡量银行应对短期流动性冲击的能力，净稳定融资比率则是用于度量银行较长期限内可使用的稳定资金来源，对表内外资产业务发展的支持能力，有助于推动银行用稳定的资金来源支持资产业务的发展，降低资产负债的期限错配。

The new regulatory framework is proposed in liquidity coverage and net stable financing ratio two indicators，Make liquidity supervision more reasonable and fine。Used to measure the bank liquidity coverage to deal with the impact of short-term liquidity ability，Net stable rate is used to measure the financing bank a long period can use stable capital source，Watch inside and outside of business development support ability of assets，To help promote bank with stable source of capital assets support business development，Reduce the assets and liabilities of a mismatch period。

　　贷存比具有一定的顺周期特征，源于外汇占款是基础货币的主要贡献因素，这意味着外汇占款流入规模越大，银行信贷供给能力越强。 新增外汇占款是基础货币的重要来源之一。不考虑央行公开市场操作的对冲，外汇占款的持续流入将伴随大量派生货币创造，货币供应量快速增长，从而导致通货膨胀和经济过热。在这个阶段，银行信贷供给能力反而越强，增加了流动性过剩风险。外汇占款增量减少对货币供应造成冲击，存款减少对贷款的约束效应又抑制了银行信贷投放，进一步抽走流动性，从而可能导致流动性不足。

DaiCunBi has certain characteristics of the cycle，The gap is the base currency from foreign exchange the main contribution of factors，This means that combines the bigger inflows of foreign exchange，Bank credit supply capacity is stronger。 The gap is the foundation of new foreign exchange currency is one of the important source。Don't consider the central bank open market operation of the hedge，The gap will continue to flow into the foreign exchange with more money to create derived，Money supply fast growth，Thus lead to inflation and overheating。In this stage，Bank credit supply ability strong more instead，Increased liquidity risk。Foreign exchange money supply to reduce the gap incremental impact，Deposit to reduce the constraints of the loans and the bank credit to suppress the effect of issuance，Further pumping away liquidity，Which may lead to a liquidity shortage。

　　随着2012年内两次降息，并扩大存贷款利率浮动区间，意味着渐进式的利率市场化改革重新启动。

With 2012 years twice to cut interest rates，And expand the range of floating interest rate，Progressive means that the interest rate marketization reform to restart。

　　75%贷存比红线加剧了各行对存款的竞争。在贷存比限制下，信贷投放以存款增加为基础，银行为了提高信贷供给能力，不得不加大对存款的争夺。虽然央行可能针对各行利率竞争将采取惩罚性措施，商业银行出于保护自身考虑可能形成价格同盟，但这种惩罚性措施和同盟是非常脆弱和短期的。

75% DaiCunBi red line increased to deposit in the competition。In DaiCunBi restrictions，The supply of credit to deposit increase as the foundation，The bank in order to improve the credit supply capacity，Have to increase of the race for the deposit。Although the central bank may interest rates for all the competition will take punitive measures，Commercial Banks to protect their own considers possible formation price alliance，But this kind of punitive measures and alliance is very fragile and short term。

　　利率市场化使银行丧失了对低资金成本渠道的垄断性，银行必须与整体资金市场竞争，存款利率迅速向市场利率靠拢带来资金成本的上升。在存款市场竞争过程中，银行拥有存款定价权，加剧揽储竞争环境使银行极易失去自我约束力，出现不计成本的恶性竞争。

Interest rate marketization make bank lost in low cost of capital channel of monopoly，The bank must and the overall capital market competition，Deposit interest rate to market interest rates moving quickly bring capital costs to rise。On the savings market competition process，Banks have deposit pricing，Increased competition environment so that Banks pulled store easy to lose self-discipline，Appear not to count the cost of vicious competition。

　　从各国经验看，利率市场化改革后，银行产生危机的概率增大，贷存比监管会增大危机发生概率。一方面监管使得揽储竞争更加激烈，导致银行风险偏好上升，加剧逆向选择和道德风险；另一方面监管限制了银行资产业务结构调整能力，导致银行业盈利能力承压，风险抵御能力下降。

From all the experience to see，After a market-oriented interest rate reform，Banks have the probability of crisis increase，DaiCunBi supervision will increase the probability of a crisis。On the one hand that takes the supervision store more competitive，Result in the bank risk preference to rise，Aggravate adverse selection and moral hazard；On the other hand regulatory limits the bank assets business structure adjustment ability，Lead to banking profitability confined，Reduced ability to resist risk。

　　而升高的负债成本将激化银行冒险行为，迫使银行提高风险容忍程度，追逐高风险高收益的项目，以弥补存款成本的上升。高风险客户占比上升埋下了不良率上升的风险隐患。

And rising debt costs will stoke bank risk taking，Forcing Banks to increase risk tolerance，Chasing higher-yielding project，To make up for the cost savings rise。High-risk customers than rise of buried a defective rate rising risk potential。

　　无论是短期还是长期来看，利率市场化都将导致存贷差缩窄，且短期冲击要远远大于中长期影响。为了减缓对盈利能力的负面冲击，美国和日本银行业均提高了贷款占生息资产的比重，以平滑净息差波动。但中国实行的贷存比监管使得该指标超过或逼近75%红线时，银行信贷投放行为受到约束，极大地限制了银行资产业务结构调整能力，加剧净息差波动。

Whether short-term or long-term and see，Interest rate marketization will result in poor and sac，And the short-term impact than long-term effects。In order to slow down the negative impact on profitability，The United States and Japan are improved banking loans accounted for interest-bearing assets to the total，To smooth net spreads fluctuations。But China implements the DaiCunBi supervision made the index more than 75% when the red line or approximation，Bank credit restrictions on behavior，Greatly limits the bank assets business structure adjustment ability，Increased net spreads fluctuations。

　　由于当前银行的信贷依然是社会融资的主要方式（银行融资占社会融资比重在80%以上），信贷依然属于卖方市场，银行很有可能将升高的负债成本转嫁给信贷需求方。一方面融资成本的上升将增加企业财务负担，侵蚀企业利润；另一方面高利率会抑制社会有效投资需求，削弱货币政策调控效果。

Because the bank credit is still the main way of social financing（Bank financing accounts for more than 80% financing proportion in society），Credit is still belong to the seller's market，The bank will quite likely be rising debt costs to credit home-textile。On the one hand the financing cost rise will increase enterprise financial burden，Erosion enterprise profit；On the other hand higher rates would restrain social effective investment demand，Weaken the currency policy control effect。

　　

作者系国金证券(600109,股吧)分析师 The author is countries gold securities(600109,Shares it)analysts