主持人：杨磊

The host：Yang lei

　　嘉宾：温天纳 香港证券业专业学会委员

guests：WenTianNa Hong Kong securities professional society of the committee

　　陶冬 瑞士信贷亚洲区首席经济分析师

TaoDong credit suisse chief Asia economic analysts

　　主持人：请您分析一下目前欧美股市企稳，外围市场对于A股的影响有多大？

The host：Could you please analyze current and euramerican stabilising the stock market，Peripheral market for A shares how much impact？

　　温天纳：最近，美国、欧洲甚至内地的一些经济数据，都呈现出比较弱的情况。但在这种情况之下，上星期美国一些企业的业绩仍略胜市场预期，再加上本周市场对美国联邦储备局的伯南克在言论中提到QE3，还是有一定的憧憬空间。这几天美国外围的股市应该会比较稳定，对A股有利好的作用。特别是从资金面看，从一些资金流向中国的相关股票的统计来讲，以前是流出，（现在）慢慢看见流入的情况，虽然不是很明显，但仍是一个比较利好的信号。

WenTianNa：recent，The United States、In Europe and even in the mainland of some economic data，Present a weaker。But in this situation，Last week the United States the performance of some companies still slightly-market expectations，Plus this week to the federal reserve's market Ben bernanke mentioned in the QE3 at the speech，Or is there some vision space。This few days in the outer reaches of the American stock market would be more stable，To A shares favorable good function。Especially from the financing side look，Some of the money to flow to China from the related stocks will tell statistics，Before is out，（now）Slowly see inflow of，Although not very obvious，But it's still a relatively good signal。

　　温天纳：美国政策利好对A股有正面影响

WenTianNa：The United States policy interest good to A shares had A positive effect

　　主持人：目前对外汇款（账目款）的数据是呈现一个正面的分析，您认为就目前一些中国经济宏观数据的发布，股市对于一些逆升性资本的问题怎么消化？

The host：At present foreign remittance（Accounts of）Data is to present a positive analysis，You think that now some of China's economic macro data release，The stock market for some of the capital/inverse problem how to digest？

　　温天纳：经济数据符合预期 内生增长仍可期待

WenTianNa：Economic data fits expected the endogenous growth still can look forward to

　　温天纳：上星期内地公布了一些通胀和经济增长的数据，从通胀的数据看，外围市场有点担心内地经济处于一个增长冷却的情况，第二季度经济增长基本上是回落到C字头。但是普遍来讲还是符合市场的预期，内地再经济刺激增速的话，以及一些存款准备金率方面的调整，可能在第三季度还会有一些政策出台，基本上支撑了整个外围股市略微好的表现。再加上美国的星期三的涉及QE3的言论，都是从比较利好的角度去解读这些数据的。

WenTianNa：The mainland last week released some inflation and economic growth of data，From the inflation data to see，Peripheral market a little worried about the mainland economy is in a growth of cooling，Economic growth in the second quarter is basically retreated to C "。But generally speaking or comply with market expectations，The mainland economic stimulus to growth of words，And some of the deposit reserve rate adjustment，May in the third quarter will still have some policies，Basically the entire peripheral support stock market slightly good performance。Plus the United States Wednesday of the concerns of QE3 comments，From the point of view of the good compared to interpret these data。

　　主持人：温先生认为目前无论是外围还是国内的一些相关经济数据符合预期，对A股市场有一定的提升作用。陶冬先生来分析一下目前的国内外形势。

The host：Wen now believe that whether some of the related peripheral or domestic economic data meet expectations，To the A share market has certain ascending function。Mr. TaoDong to analyze the current situation at home and abroad。

　　国际玉米价格上周大涨，连同大豆分别是创出了新高，今天国内期货市场的行情也是如此，对此您是怎么看？

International corn prices rose last week，Along with soybean respectively is building a new highs，Today the domestic futures market also is such，How do you see this？

　　陶冬：上个星期美国农业部以及几家国际投行纷纷地调低了全球玉米的收成以及库存状况，这是玉米以及其他农产品价格近期大涨的一个理由，这一轮的上涨明显有许多投机因素在里面。同时，在厄尔尼诺现象之下，北半球的粮仓，包括美国中部，包括乌克兰等等地方收成大减已经成为定局。而且我们估计下半年南半球的粮仓也会面临各种各样的极端气候。在这种情况下，今年甚至在今后一两年，国际农产品的收成情况不会太好，带动了农产品价格的上涨。

TaoDong：Last week the United States department of agriculture and several international investment Banks are down to the global corn harvest and inventory status，It's corn and other agricultural prices surged to a recent reason，This round of rise obvious there are many speculative factors in it。At the same time，The el nino phenomenon under，The granary of the northern hemisphere，Including Central America，Including Ukraine and so on place a great decrease harvest has said or done。And we estimate that the second half of the granary of the southern hemisphere will face a variety of extreme climate。In this case，This year even in the next year or two，International agricultural crops are not going to be very good，Drive the agricultural prices。

　　陶冬：全球农业减产助推农产品上涨

TaoDong：Global agricultural yields thrusting agricultural products to rise

　　主持人：你是在今后的一段时间都看多农产品吗？

The host：You are for the next period of time all see many agricultural products？

　　陶冬：总的来讲去年农产品价格的上涨，明显落后于大宗商品和其他商品。这次情况有所改变，全球经济放缓，尤其中国对于商品的需求大幅下降，使得大宗商品的价格有所回落。同时，由于气候、库存的因素，农产品的价格是今年比较看好的风险资产价格。

TaoDong：Last year on the whole agricultural products prices，YuDaZong goods has fallen and other commodities。The conditions are changing，The global economic slowdown，Especially for the demand of China commodities dropped substantially，Make commodity prices easing。At the same time，Due to climate、Inventory factors，This year the price of agricultural products is the risk is to value the asset prices。

　　主持人：农产品价格的上涨，会不会带来新一轮的通货膨胀呢？

The host：Agricultural prices，Will bring a new round of inflation？

　　陶冬：农产品上涨与通胀关系并不密切

TaoDong：Rising inflation and agricultural products is not close relationship

　　陶冬：目前还很难说。农产品价格上涨，无可避免地会带来饲料价格的上涨，这会拉动肉类以及其他各方面价格的上涨，对于CPI一定是向上拉动因素，但是与此同时，世界各地的经济增长和需求纷纷遭遇了冷风。这实际上是两方面的因素，一方面农产品价格的因素是比较明显的，但是另一方面包括石油在内的其他商品价格是下降的趋势。总的来看，CPI有上涨的空间，但是总的来讲不会达到2009年、2010年那种大幅度的通货膨胀上升，更可能出现的情况是，由于整个经济环境不太景气，使得通货膨胀进入了一个偏低的趋势，而农产品的价格是另外一回事。

TaoDong：Now it is hard to say。Agricultural prices，Inevitably will bring feed prices，This will pull meat and other various aspects the rise in price，CPI must be up to pull factors，But at the same time，All over the world economic growth and demand in the cold wind in succession。This is actually two factors，On the one hand agricultural prices factor is more obvious，But on the other hand, including oil other commodity prices is the trend of decline。In general，CPI has a rising space，But in general will not live up to 2009 years、In 2010, the big inflation rising，The situation is more likely，Due to the economic environment is not too boom，Make inflation into a low trend，And the price of agricultural products is another matter。

　　主持人：请您再为我们解读一下结构性通缩对于企业盈利的一些影响好吗？

The host：Please you again for us to interpret the structural deflation for corporate earnings some influence？

　　陶冬：这是中国现在面临的比较大的问题，这一轮中国经济的一个重要的因素，不是GDP下降多少，甚至不是名义GDP下降多少，而是企业的盈利在大幅度的恶化，企业的杠杆比较高，企业的抑价能力出现了明显的下降。在这种情况下，企业的营销环境在迅速地恶化，在今后的6个月，三角债甚至可能会重新回到中国的许多企业里。如果目前的经济状况维持12个月的话，那么整个企业的盈利会出现一次比较持续的大幅度下跌。

TaoDong：This is China faces of the big issues，This round of China's economy is one of important factors，How much is not drop GDP，Not even nominal GDP down much，But the enterprise's profit in the deterioration of the greatly，Enterprise of leverage is quite high，Enterprise suppression of price ability appear significantly reduced。In this case，The marketing environment in rapidly deteriorating，In the next six months，Ious may even back many of China's enterprise。If the state of the economy for 12 months words，So the whole enterprise's profit will be a more sustained has greatly decreased。