项峥

Zheng a

　　近期有媒体报道，浙江民营工商界发生一波担保圈借贷危机，涉及600多家知名民营企业。事件起因是各大银行对浙江民企集中催收贷款进而通过互保圈所引发。风险事件的风暴眼，是处于担保圈中关键企业中江控股的资金链条断裂和天煜建设有限公司旗下分公司的非法集资案发。

Recent media reports，Zhejiang private business happen a wave of guarantee circle lending crisis，Involving 600 many well-known private enterprises。Events cause is each big bank on collection of zhejiang corporation and loan through each other by the circle。The storm risk events eye，In the circle of guarantee is the key enterprise ZhongJiang holding capital chain rupture and day Yu construction Co., LTD. Is its branch of the crime of illegal fund-raising。

　　从控制风险角度出发，商业银行对出现风险隐患的企业及时收贷或催贷，符合微观审慎的经营原则。其间，还涉及到商业银行之间的复杂博弈，这意味着哪家商业银行能够及时脱身，就可能将所有的包袱甩给未及时退出的商业银行。比如本次事件主角中江集团，在涉及近80亿元的债务中，建设银行(601939,股吧)和中国银行(601988,股吧)分别有30亿元和10亿元的贷款深陷其中，其他银行也有涉及，但金额相对较小。

From the Angle of risk control，Commercial Banks to appear risk potential enterprise timely ShouDai or push loan，Accord with micro prudent management principle。meanwhile，Also related to commercial Banks of the game between complex，This means that a commercial Banks can get in time，It is possible to all the baggage to jilt to fails to withdraw from the commercial bank。Such as the events leading role ZhongJiang group，Involved in nearly 8 billion yuan in debt，Construction bank(601939,Shares it)And bank of China(601988,Shares it)There were 3 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan in loans coming unstuck，Other Banks are also involved，But a relatively small amount。

　　银行催贷导致企业资金链条断裂的情况，在眼下经济下行期间的中国并不鲜见。最近媒体报道比较多的是对钢铁贸易企业的收贷，而实际情况，可能并不仅限于此。2012年1~5月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润18434亿元，同比下降2.4%。企业经营利润下滑，反映出经营生态的恶化，加上应收账款规模较大，也增大企业到期不能偿还银行贷款的风险。去年第四季度以来，商业银行信贷资产质量下降，不良贷款余额上升。民间融资重灾区的温州，商业银行的不良贷款率已经连续11个月上升。不良贷款率上升，又促使商业银行加大催收工作力度，进而又加剧企业资金链条绷紧。

Banks urged to fund chain enterprise credit break，In the economy of China during the downside is not rare。Recent media reports more is to the ShouDai steel trade enterprise，And the actual situation，May not only that。2012 1 ~ 5 months，The national industrial enterprises above designated size realize the profit of 1.8434 trillion yuan，2.4% year-on-year drop。Enterprise management falling profits，Reflect the deterioration of ecological management，Plus accounts receivable in large scale，Also increase the enterprise can't pay back the bank loan expires the risk。Since the last quarter of last year，Commercial bank credit assets quality decreased，Bad loan balances rise。Folk financing hard-hit areas wenzhou，Business the Banks' bad loans have continuous 11 months to rise。Bad loans to rise，And commercial Banks to increase collection work dynamics，Then and aggravate enterprise fund chain taut。

　　事实上，“经济下行—企业经营亏损—不能到期偿还贷款—银行收贷—企业破产倒闭—经济继续下行”这一作用机理，已经危及到宏观经济的稳定，并越来越呈现出其破坏性的作用。特别是欧债危机演变存在不确定性，美国经济复苏仍有反复的背景下，我国宏观经济运行稳定事关“稳增长”的大局。

In fact，“Economic downside-enterprise operating losses-can't due to repay the loan bank ShouDai- went bankrupt enterprise--the economy continues to the downside”This mechanism，Have endanger the macro-economic stability，And more and more show its destructive role。Especially the debt crisis of the uncertainties evolution，The United States economic recovery still has repeated the background，China's macroeconomic operation is stable“Steady growth”On the overall situation of。

　　国际金融危机后，在金融机构微观监管上的一个重要反思是要抑制商业银行顺周期行为。经济下行期间，商业银行贷后管理存在明显的顺周期性，这主要表现在商业银行贷后管理更趋严格，催收工作力度更大。商业银行在经济下行期间，加大贷后管理，本身也无可厚非。但显然会让本身已经陷入经营困境的企业雪上加霜。

After the international financial crisis，In financial institutions on the regulatory an important reflection is to suppress the cycle of commercial bank behavior。During economic downside，Commercial bank credit management is obviously the cyclical，This is mainly manifested in the commercial bank credit management more hasten is strictly，Collection efforts more。Commercial Banks in economic downside period，Increase the credit management，Itself is understandable。But obviously makes itself is in a business enterprise to the dilemma。

　　贷后管理政策属于商业银行内部的经营策略，即使可以建立动态拨备制度，或提高商业银行对不良贷款的容忍度，也无法改变商业银行贷后管理政策的顺周期性。特别是涉及到多家银行对同一企业贷款，或者涉及到担保圈风险，约束单家银行的催收政策，只可能会是导致其他银行获利。因此，需要建立一个在地方政府主导下的企业债务重组与化解机制，一旦出现风险，由地方政府全盘接手债务，在及时进行企业资产保全和银行账户冻结后，所有银行一律不得单独收贷，转由地方政府、企业和银行三方寻求最佳处置方案。如果这样，可以最大限度减少企业破产倒闭现象，帮助企业恢复生产，并促进宏观经济稳定。

After the credit management policy belong to the commercial Banks internal business strategy，Even if can build dynamic provision system，Or improve the commercial Banks to tolerance of bad loans，Also can't change commercial bank credit management policy after the cyclical。When it comes to many Banks to the same enterprise loans，Or related to guarantee circle risk，Single constraint of Banks collection policies，Only may lead to other bank is profit。so，Need to build a local dominated by the government in the enterprise debt restructuring and dissolve mechanism，Once appear risk，By the local government took over all debts，In the enterprise assets in preservation and bank account after the freeze，All Banks are not allowed ShouDai alone，Turn by the local government、Enterprise and bank three party seeking the best treatment plan。If so，Can minimize enterprise went bankrupt phenomenon，Help enterprises to resume production，And promote macroeconomic stability。