金融观察

Financial observation

　　仲武冠

ZhongWu champions league

　　我国金融自由化与基尼系数的相应关系 China's financial liberalization and gini coefficient corresponding relation of

　　任何一个国家在一定时期内都面临着金融资源的有限性问题，即金融约束现象。对于发展中国家来说，金融约束问题可能表现得更为突出。发展中国家推行实际利率为负的金融抑制政策事实上会导致该国资金供求失衡问题，所以，这些实际负利率国家一般比较偏好于选择资金配给制度；但是，这种制度安排通常会抑制中小企业的发展。世界银行认为，大约有25%以上的中小企业因此遇到了融资障碍，这个比例在我国可能更高，去年以来我国民间借贷野蛮生长的事实就充分证明了这一点。

Any country in a certain period are faced with the limitation of financial resources，即金融约束现象。For developing countries for example，Financial constraints may appear more outstanding。Developing countries negative real interest rates financial repression policy in fact can lead to the country's capital supply imbalances，so，The actual countries generally supportive preferred choice in capital rationing system；but，This system arrangement will usually small and medium-sized enterprise development inhibition。According to the world bank，About 25% of small and medium-sized enterprise so met financing obstacles，This ratio in China may be higher，Since the last year our country folk lending growth facts make the savage proved this point。

　　一般来说，发展中国家在金融自由化的过程中，基尼系数会随着时间的不断发展，大致走出一条先从小到大、后从大到小的“倒U型”曲线（见图）。在金融自由化过程中，因为金融业本身所存在的规模优势会给信息充分的一方带来更大利润，而给信息不足的一方带来更多损失，从而造成了财富分配的变化。如果该曲线高度越高、跨度越大则说明金融自由化过程给全社会造成的贫富差距越大、带来的痛苦越漫长；相反，该曲线高度越低、跨度越窄则说明金融自由化过程给全社会造成的贫富差距越小、带来的痛苦越短暂。以我国为例，随着金融改革的不断推进，基尼系数也大致按照这种规律变化着。从1980年—2000年，我国金融市场从无到有，四大国有专业银行主导金融市场，基尼系数在20年内增加了0.187。根据我国金融市场构建的ARMA模型预测，从2000年—2020年我国的基尼系数将增加0.151，达到0.568。预测发现，2020年之后，我国基尼系数将会随着金融改革深化以及金融资源出现供大于求而不断下降。很显然，基尼系数下降必然会给居民带来幸福感，基尼系数减小的时间长度将决定着给居民带来幸福感记忆的长度，这个时间长度影响着居民幸福感的长度。

Generally speaking，Developing countries in the process of financial liberalization，Gini coefficient with the development of the time will be，Out of a roughly since the first、From the big to small after“Pour U”curve（See chart）。In financial liberalization，Because the financial industry itself exists the size advantage will give information on one side of the fully bring greater profit，And the lack of a party to information bring more losses，Thus caused the change in the distribution of wealth。If this curve height is higher、The greater the span show financial liberalization process to the society by the greater the gap between rich and poor、That brings the pain is long；instead，该curve高度越低、Span the narrower show financial liberalization process to the society by the smaller of the gap between rich and poor、That brings the pain is short。In China, for example，Along with the development of the financial reform，Gini coefficient is also about the changes in this law。从1980年—2000年，China's financial market from scratch，四大国有专业银行主导金融市场，Gini coefficient in 20 years increased 0.187。根据我国金融市场构建的ARMA模型预测，从2000年—2020年我国的基尼系数将增加0.151，0.568。Prediction found，2020 years later，Our country gini coefficient will with the financial reforms and financial resources appear supply and continue to drop。obviously，Gini coefficient will decline to residents of happiness，Gini coefficient reducing the length of time will decide to residents of the length of the memory of happiness，The time length influenced residents of the length of the happiness。

　　从图中来看，曲线ACD延续的时间越长、基尼系数变化幅度越大对社会造成的痛苦就越大，就更不利于我国构建和谐社会；相反，如果曲线能够变为又短又扁的曲线EF则给全社会造成的痛苦越小，更有利于我国经济增长方式顺利转型、建设一个和谐社会。

From the graph to see，Curve ACD the longer continue、Gini coefficient variation amplitude of the society by the greater the pain，More detrimental to construct a harmonious society；instead，If curve can become short and flat curve to the whole society EF pain from the smaller，More favorable to our country's economic growth mode transformation smoothly、Building a harmonious society。

　　我国金融市场基本运行情况 China's financial market basic operation

　　目前我国经济问题主要体现在短期滞胀与长期失衡两个方面。第一个短期滞胀问题主要表现为投资需求不足，而这个需求不足是因为经济发达地区、国有垄断企业资金丰裕，但缺乏创新能力，所以有钱投不出去或者重复建设。经济落后地区、民营中小企业有创新能力，但是缺乏资金。加上体制内金融机构不给体制外企业金融支持，所以只能寻求体制外金融服务。表现在金融层面上就是我国目前出现了“两多两难问题”，即民间资金多投资难、小微企业多融资难。这充分说明我国金融市场存在严重的结构性问题，主要体现在两个方面：首先是金融市场结构失调，严重依赖间接投资渠道，而产业结构调整恰恰最需要直接金融市场去推动。2011年年底，在企业融资结构中银行贷款余额占54%，企业股票市值和债券余额仅占29%，这一比例远远低于美国、英国、德国和日本。其次，在以商业银行为主的间接融资体系当中，中小企业获得的服务非常少。

At present, our economic problems exist in the short-term and long-term stagflation imbalance two aspects。The first problem mainly for short-term stagflation investment demand，And this demand because of economic developed area、State-owned monopoly enterprise funds prosper，But the lack of innovation ability，So rich couldn't go out or duplicate construction。Economic backward areas、Small and medium-sized private enterprises have the innovation ability，But the lack of funds。System of financial institutions and enterprises outside the system not to give financial support，So can only seek system outside financial services。表现在金融层面on就是我国目前出现了“Two more dilemma”，That is private funds to invest more difficult、Small micro enterprise more financing。This fully explain our financial market exists serious structural problems，Mainly embodied in two aspects：First is the financial market structure disorder，Serious rely on indirect investment channels，And industrial structure adjustment on the most need to promote financial market directly。By the end of 2011，In the enterprise financing structure bank loan balance accounted for 54%，Enterprise stock and bond balance accounted for only 29%，This ratio is far lower than the United States、British、Germany and Japan。second，In the commercial Banks of indirect financing system of mainly，Small and medium-sized enterprises to gain service is very little。

　　我国经济的第二个长期失衡问题主要表现为高能耗、高物耗、低产出、低效益的非均衡经济增长方式难以为继，而造成这种失衡的一个很重要因素恰恰是由于金融资源掌握在政府控制的大型国有金融机构手里，政府利用它们长期支持体制内企业导致体制内企业效率低，长期低效支持引发整个经济结构失衡与宏观经济政策的失灵。

The economy in our country the second long-term imbalances mainly for high energy consumption、High consumption、Low output、The low efficiency of economic growth mode disequilibrium unsustainable，And caused by this imbalance of a very important factors exactly is due to financial resources to control of the government in large state-owned financial institutions hand，The government used their long-term support system of enterprise lead to low efficiency of system of enterprise，Long-term support the economy by low unbalanced structure and the failure of macroeconomic policies。

　　在近期我们举办的“宏观经济季度沙龙”上，与会专家认为，目前我国的金融问题主要体现在三个方面：第一，从宏观层面来看，国有企业过度透支政府信用、主权信用的金融资源配置方式难以为继，需要建立一种可持续发展的、包容性经济增长方式；第二，从区域经济发展层面来看，由于我国经济开发的梯级战略与各地自然资源的禀赋不同，我国区域金融资源配置分布不均。第三，从国内外两个市场两种资源来说，我国外汇储备中人民币资产的储备过低，不利于我国企业实施走出去战略实施。

We hold in the near future“Macro economic quarterly salon”on，The experts say，目前我国的金融问题主要体现在三个方面：The first，From the macroscopic Angle，The state-owned enterprise excessive overdraw government credit、Sovereign credit financial resource configuration unsustainable，需要建立一种可持续发展的、Stressing the pattern of economic growth；The second，从区域经济发展层面来看，由于我国经济开发的梯级战略与各地自然资源的禀赋不同，Regional financial resource allocation uneven distribution。The third，From both domestic and overseas market for two kinds of resources，China's foreign exchange reserves of the renminbi assets reserve too low，Against China's enterprises go out strategy implementation。

　　金融改革将拓展我国经济增长方式转型空间 Financial reform will expand our country economic growth mode transformation space

　　帕特里克在《不发达国家的金融发展与经济成长》认为，金融发展路径区分为需求引致型和供给主导型两种，从我国的金融实践及改革的路径选择来看，我国的金融发展路径基本上为供给主导型路径。从缩小金融自由化过程中基尼系数“倒U型”曲线的高度与跨度来说，图中预示着，如果我们能够用2020年—2040年之间20年的时间去完成2020年—2060年之间40年的改革，我国将来的金融改革空间十分巨大。

Patrick in《不发达国家的金融发展与经济成长》think，Distinguish between financial development path for demand cause type and supply leading two kinds，From our own financial practice and reform path choose to see，Our financial development path for supply basically leading path。From the scale of financial liberalization process the coefficient“Pour U”The height of the curve and span speaking，Figure indicates the，If we can use the 2020-2040 years between 20 years time to complete 2020-2060 years between 40 years of reform，China future financial reform is a huge space。

　　从宏观全局出发，如何推动基尼系数“倒U型”曲线变矮变小呢？专家认为，一定要凝聚金融改革的共识，在现有金融约束条件之下，追求包容性增长与更加文明的增长。大力提倡民间资本积极参与金融改革，通过塑造民间资金利率指标来引导金融业提高运行效率。加速通过金融资本引领产业资本，推进我国利率市场化与汇率浮动有效管理。创造多元化融资工具，帮助我国扭曲的产业结构回到合理的轨道上来，从而推进基尼系数曲线变矮变短。

From the macro the overall situation，How to promote the gini coefficient“Pour U”Curve becomes short smaller？Experts say，Must rally financial reform consensus，In the existing financial constraints under conditions，追求包容性增长与更加文明的增长。大力提倡民间资本积极参与金融改革，Through the shaping folk funds rate index to guide the financial industry increase efficiency。Speed up through the financial capital leading industrial capital，To push forward the country interest rate marketization and effective management of floating exchange rate。Create diversified financing tools，Help our country the industrial structure of the distortion of the reasonable back to track，To promote the gini coefficient curve becomes short short。

　　从中观或者说区域的角度来看，我们金融改革的落脚点一定要与纠正我国产业扭曲、实现金融减贫结合起来。第一，要允许农村信用社合理跨区发展，避免金融业形成诸侯割据的地方保护主义，从而推进城乡一体化发展，降低基尼系数的上升幅度过大。第二，要改变传统的分区域开发政策，转而实行普惠性发展，以推进东中西区域经济一体化发展，从而缩小各地基尼系数的差距。第三，建立遏制贫困恶性循环的制度安排。要允许广大农村地区积极发展农村金融互助组织、农村社区银行以及村镇银行等小微型金融机构，以鼓励资金西行，扩大我国整体内需。

From the point of view of the medium or area，Our financial reform must be correct and the whereabouts of China's industry distortion、To achieve financial combination of poverty。The first，To allow for rural credit cooperatives inter-district reasonable development，Avoid formed during the financial industry governors protectionism，To promote the integration of urban and rural development，Lower gini coefficient up range is too big。The second，To change the traditional points regional development policy，To a pratt &whitney sexual development，In order to promote regional economic integration development features，Thus all the gap narrowing gini coefficient。The third，Build containment vicious cycle of poverty arrangement of system。To allow the rural area positive development of rural financial help each other organizations、Rural community Banks and small towns such as bank micro financial institutions，To encourage capital the west，Our country's whole expand domestic demand。

　　从人民币国际化角度来看，要实现我国原来粗放型增长向集约型增长，就必须充分利用好国内与国际两个市场与两种资源，通过金融资本引导产业资本的方式提高我国国际储备的收益率。

From the perspective of RMB internationalization，To realize our country's original extensive growth to intensive growth，We must fully use the domestic and international market and two kinds of two resources，Through the financial capital guide industrial capital way to promote China's international reserve yield。

　　总之，无论是通过温州金融综合改革试验还是通过珠三角金融改革试验，中央都希望探索出一条适合我国实体经济发展需要的金融之路，而这条道路是否可行还有赖于它是否有利于纠正我国产业扭曲、实现金融减贫。通过以上多方面综合作用，如果能使我国产业结构变得更加合理、区域金融更加均衡发展，那么我国的基尼系数“倒U型”曲线就能够变得更加好看，无形之中就为我国转换经济增长方式争取了更多时间与空间。

In short，Whether through wenzhou financial comprehensive reform test or through the pearl river delta financial reform test，The central all hope to find a suitable for China's economic development needs of financial entity road，而这条道路是否可行还有赖于它是否有利于纠正我国产业扭曲、Realize financial poverty reduction。Through the above the comprehensive function aspects，如果能使我国产业结构变得更加合理、Regional financial more balanced development，So China's gini coefficient“Pour U”Curve can become more good-looking，This description of the individual behavior should not be considered as the Japanes。

　　（作者为国家信息中心中经网数据有限公司竞争情报中心总经济师、副研究员）

（The author is the state information center ZhongJingWang data Co., LTD competitive intelligence center chief economist、Associate researcher）