本周股指跌宕起伏，周一百股跌停，周三上演逆转，特别是沪指三连阳后，周五再现调整，较此前一周走势雷同。在沪指昨日报收于2168.64点，下跌0.74%，使得沪指周线收出五连阴，那么大盘下周会否迎来反弹？盘中迭创新低的背景下，2132点是“钻石底”，还是“暂时底”？基金二季报又传递出机构投资者哪些新的动向？针对投资者关心的话题，《大众证券报》特别连线了两位业内人士。

This week the stock index ups and downs all around，On Monday the shares drop stop，On Wednesday reverse，Especially HuZhi three even after Yang，Friday's reappearance adjustment，A similar trend of the previous week。In HuZhi at yesterday at 2168.64，Fall 0.74%，Make HuZhi weeks line out of five even the Yin，So if next week in the rebound？Pan diego under the background of new low，2132 point is“Diamond bottom”，or“Temporarily bottom”？Fund two quarterly and pass a new trend which institutional investors？According to investors about the topic of，《Public stock certificate report》Special attachment for the two industry insiders。

　短期反弹概率较大 Short term rally probability is bigger

　　《大众证券报》：周一百股跌停，两市恐慌情绪是否宣泄完毕？在股指不断逼近前期低点2132点时逆转，又能否确定底部区域？三连阳走势雷同的背后又有哪些新的变化，周线五连阴后会否迎来反弹？

《Public stock certificate report》：On Monday the shares drop stop，Two city panic if the vent？In the previous low stock index constantly approximation 2132 point to turn back，And can you confirm the bottom area？Three even the same trend Yang behind what the new changes，Weeks after five line even if rebound in Yin？

　　东吴证券(601555,股吧)策略分析师/罗佛传：从本周市场表现看，部分板块表现出较强的反弹意愿，但板块之间各自为战，没有形成做多的合力，从而造成股指在经历周一大跌后犹豫不决。从整体上看目前市场是结构性风险和机会并存的局面，比如煤炭、水泥、金融改革概念股等走强，而房地产、医药、食品股等又继续调整的走势；因此，市场在板块的轮动下产生分化，此前是沪弱深强，本周是沪强深弱。就技术上而言，目前日线MACD指标已经出现底背离，如果市场再次下探，会造成周线级别的底背离。这很可能引发中线级别的反弹行情。就眼下看，大盘或已处在底部区域，2132点即使被击破，也不大可能创出一个距离该点位较远的新低。

Soochow securities(601555,Shares it)Strategy analysts/the rover lives：This week from the performance of the markets look，Part of the plate showed a greater willingness to rebound，But did plates，Do not form a resultant force，Thus cause stock index plunged Monday after hesitating in experience。Look from whole at present market is structural risk and opportunity coexist situation，Such as coal、cement、Financial reform the concept and going strong，And real estate、medicine、Food shares and continue to adjust trend；so，The market in the round plate produced under dynamic differentiation，Previous is Shanghai weak deep strong，This week is Shanghai strong deep weak。Is technically，At present, the index has been line MACD deviate from，If the market dipped again，Can cause the weekly levels of the bottom to deviate from。This may cause a Central Line level rallies。In the short term，Grail or already in the bottom area，2132 points even if were breached，Are unlikely to lead to a distance that point a far low。

　　从沪指近日表现看，三连阳后再现调整的走势更类似于2132点之前的走势，尽管股指处在下行阶段，重心不断下移，但每每有较大幅度的下探后，就会遭遇多方的反击。可以说，目前两市的做多动能在不断释放，而做空动能急剧衰歇。预计后市，在股市调整充沛以后，一系列的政策累积效应将愈加得到市场的重视，市场很可能在反复震荡的过程中找到一个引领主流人气的热点，从而带领大盘走强。

From HuZhi recently performance look，Three even after adjusting the movements of the sun represent more similar to 2132 points before trend，Although stock index in descending stage，Focus moves constantly，But often was substantial after hitting，Will encounter many counterattack。Can say，At present the two cities do more in continuously releasing kinetic energy，And do empty kinetic energy CuiXie sharply。Expected market outlook，In the stock market after the energetic adjustment，A series of policy accumulation effect will increasingly get market value，Market is likely in the process of repeated concussions find a lead mainstream popular hot spots，To lead the grail go strong。

　　中投证券策略分析师/唐涛：近来大盘呈现破位下跌转向横盘再转向破位的显著弱市特征，但当前指数有趋底之势，恐慌情绪有望随着指数逐渐缓和。上周指数同样是在破位后收出三连阳，本周一再次破位下跌，对比发现走势确实非常相似，但不同的是本周的破位带来了百股跌停，恐慌性抛盘浮出水面，但需要注意的是，经过长期下跌之后，市场阶段性低点已和年初的低点相当接近，因此技术面上看下跌空间有限，恐慌情绪很有可能逐渐缓解。另一个方面来看，市场近期数次出现破位幅度都不是太大，没有出现沿着短周期线杀跌的极弱情景，这就说明市场杀跌的动能并不强，主要是一些涨幅较大且没有业绩支撑的纯概念股在活跃。本周五没能延续收阳，20日均线遇阻回落，但短线并不悲观，年中工作会议即将召开，市场对降准等宽松政策仍有期待，出现短反弹的概率还是较大。

Securities analysts/Chen has strategy：Recently on a down to the grail sideways turn again unto the significant features a weak city，But the current index has the trend of power，Panic is expected to ease gradually with the index。Last week in the same index is a charge out after three consecutive Yang，Monday once again break a decline，That trend is really a very similar contrast，But the difference is this week's broken a brought the shares drop stop，Panic PaoPan surface，But note，After a long after the fall，Market stage low at the beginning of the year and has low quite close，So look down on technology limited space，Panic is likely to ease gradually。Another perspective，Several recent market appear broken a range are not too big，Did not appear short cycle along the line of the winners is weak scene，This explains the kinetic energy is not strong market winners，It was a major or larger and no performance of pure the concept in active support。On Friday, can't continue accept Yang，20 average daily line blocked fell back，But short line is not pessimistic，Years working meeting of the upcoming conference，The market down loose policies such as to must still looking forward to，The probability of appear short rebound or larger。

不宜追涨杀跌 Unfavorable winners chase after go up

　　《大众证券报》：近两个交易日，尽管股指跌宕起伏，但两市出现大面积涨停的迹象，其中概念股较为突出，反映了目前两市的怎样交投情绪？操作上需注意些什么？哪些板块值得关注？

《Public stock certificate report》：Nearly two trading days，Although stock index ups and downs all around，But two city a massive harden signs，Among them the concept is serious，Reflecting the current mood of the two cities to trading？Operating the need to pay attention to some??????？What is worth to pay close attention to plate？

　　罗佛传：两市出现大面积的涨停，反映出游资的敏感，也不排除在市场调整的背景下，机构投资者以及游资力量均在提前布局。从操作上看，由于大盘处在犹豫的走势当中，没有出现标志性的阳线，因此，个人投资者也应该保持仓位的灵活，稳健的逢跌买入。需要提醒的是，盘中很多个股会瞬间出现拉升，但往往持续性有限。

The rover lives：Two city of a massive harden，Hot money reflects the sensitive，Also don't expel in market under the background of adjustment，Institutional investors and force are hot money in advance layout。Look from the operation，Because of the trend of the market in hesitate，Did not appear landmark positive line，so，Individual investors should maintain the position of the flexible，The steady every fall to buy。What need reminds is，Many stocks will instantly plate appear pull litre，But often persistent limited。

　　唐涛：概念股大面积跌停可能有两方面原因，一是涨幅较大，二是业绩增长确定性不高。但从历史数据来看，概念炒作是A股市场的鲜明特色，一旦有风吹草动，立刻有市场表现作为反馈，还是能够看出当前市场处于弱势，赚钱效应难寻，其实选择短期概念性热点风险是比较高的。题材股短线涨幅较大的情况下，一旦回调，大面积杀跌难以避免，投资者对于股价与业绩匹配度较差的题材股应坚决回避，对于有板块效应且有业绩支撑的个股，风险可控的情况下可以适当参与，对于业绩较好的白马股可以逢低关注。

Chen：The concept of large area drop stop there may be two reasons，One is bigger rise，2 it is growth performance certainty is not high。But from a historical data and see，Concept profiteering is A share market of the distinctive characteristics，Once the signs of trouble，There is a market performance as feedback immediately，Or to see the current market is weak，Make money effect is difficult to find，Actually choose the short-term conceptual hot risk is higher。Theme shares short line or larger，Once the callback，Large area to avoid winners，Investors to share price and performance matching degree of poor theme shares should firmly avoidance，For plate and performance of the effect to support individual stocks，Risk controllable can appropriate participation，For better performing white horse shares can meet low attention。

　　关注机构回补板块 Attention back to fill plate institutions

　　《大众证券报》：随着基金二季报的全披露，仓位小幅上升，但持仓比例仍在八成左右，基金未来会否不断提高仓位，在二季度“喝酒吃药买房”后，预计下半年调仓又有哪些变化？

《Public stock certificate report》：With the full disclosure fund quarterly reports，Positions a modest increase，But still open at about eighty percent proportion，Funds will be no constantly improve the future positions，In the second quarter,“Drink to take medicine to buy a house”after，The second half is expected to have the storehouse again what changes？

　　罗佛传：上半年，在大势偏弱、经济增速放缓的背景下，机构投资者侧重防御型的品种加以配置，酿酒、食品、医药等保持了较高的仓位。进入下半年，应该说上述品种受涨幅较大、获利盘颇丰的影响，很可能在市场震荡的过程中进入派发阶段，从而推动市场热点的切换。预计下半年，应该关注行业景气度业已处在低谷，有较大反弹空间的板块，比如煤炭、石油、煤化工、水泥、工程机械等。预计上述板块很可能遭到机构资金的回补。

The rover lives：In the first half，Weak in half、Economic slowdown in the background，On the variety of institutional investors tactic to configuration，wine、food、Medicine keep a high position。Into the second half，Should say the above by or larger varieties、The influence of the profit dish a lot，Probably in the process of market shake into distributed stage，To promote the market hot spots of switching。The second half is expected to，Should focus on the boom of industry has in the downturn，Have larger space rebound plates，Such as coal、oil、Coal chemical、cement、Engineering machinery, etc。The plate was probably is expected to fill the money back to the agency。

　　唐涛：其实不论总体策略重点倾向如何，各家机构对今年国内外环境的评价基本上都认为不确定因素很多。基金作为二级市场最大的机构投资者，在仓位管理上会留有一定余地。现在接近八成的仓位离业内流传的“88魔咒”已经很近，估计进一步提升仓位空间的可能性很小。接下来会在持仓结构上作一定调整。近期外界也披露机构投资者小幅减仓涨幅较大的医药和酒类板块，增加早周期品种，这也是下半年的基本动向，毕竟消费类涨幅较大，适当落袋为安也是不错的选择。

Chen：In fact no matter how tend to focus on the overall strategy，His organization of the domestic and foreign environment this year of the evaluation of the uncertainty that is basically a lot。Fund as the largest secondary market institutional investors，In the position on management with have certain room。Now close to eighty percent of the position of the industry from spread“88 spell”Already very near，Estimate further enhance the possibility of space position is very small。The next step would be for certain in open structure adjustment。Recent outside also revealed a small investors reduce warehouse or larger medicine and alcohol plate，Increase early cycle varieties，This is also the basic trends in the second half of the year，After all the consumer or larger，Appropriate fall bags for Ann also is right choice。

　　记者 李喆 惠晨晨

Reporter 李喆 HuiChenChen