无论是高利贷运作中的新风险，还是浙江民间借贷纠纷案件创新高，都可能是经济下行周期中的“一叶知秋”，与宏观经济大环境的变化紧密相关。经济上行的大潮“水落”，民间借贷的问题就容易“石出”。

Whether usury operations of the new risks，Or zhejiang folk lending dispute cases innovation high，Can all be downward economic cycle“YiYeZhiQiu”，And the macro economic environment is closely related to the change。The tide of economic upward“ShuiLa”，Folk lending is easy“Stone out”。

　　梳理浙江省高院近日发布的《浙江法院民间借贷审判报告》不难发现，该省民间借贷的收案量曲线与宏观经济走势相关。2008年金融危机爆发，案件数量也急速上升，较上年增幅高达60.56%；2011年，受第三季度温州等地部分企业债务危机影响，收案量重新上扬，该省法院全年收案93067件，较2010年增长了6.7%。

Comb zhejiang ShengGaoYuan released recently《Zhejiang court judge folk lending report》Is not difficult to find，The province of folk lending activ quantity curve and macroeconomic trends related。The 2008 financial crisis，The case number is shooting up，Growth of 60.56% a year；2011 years，By the third quarter of enterprise, wenzhou debt crisis，Structured quantity to rise，The province court activ 93067 pieces throughout the year，A growing 6.7% in 2010。

　　今年上半年，伴随宏观经济环境的变化，民间借贷案再度大幅上升。浙江全省法院共受理民间借贷纠纷案件58037件，涉案标的额283.9亿元，同比分别上升26.98%和129.61%。温州、舟山以及湖州地区上升最为明显，增幅分别达96.42%、87.37%和57.61%。

In the first half of this year，Along with the change of the macroeconomic environment，Folk lending case rise sharply again。Zhejiang province court folk lending dispute cases dealt with 58037 pieces，Involved in the bid $28.39 billion，Up by 26.98% and 129.61% respectively。wenzhou、Zhoushan and huzhou rise is most obvious，Growth of 96.42% respectively、87.37% and 57.61%。

　　浙江省高院通过调研，坦陈浙江“两多两难”现状，即“民间资本多，投资难；中小企业多，融资难”。

Zhejiang ShengGaoYuan through the investigation，Admitted, zhejiang“Two more dilemma”status，namely“Folk capital more，Investment difficult；Small and medium-sized enterprise more，financing”。

　　《浙江法院民间借贷审判报告》提到，浙江民营企业多以自有资金和民间借贷资金起步，据有关部门对温州市瓯海区105家中小微企业抽样调查，在企业初始资金来源中，有90家企业通过民间借贷筹措资本，占85.71%，其中有32家初始创业资金完全通过民间借贷获得，占30.5%。

《Zhejiang court judge folk lending report》mentioned，Zhejiang civilian-run enterprises with their own money and folk more borrowing started，According to the relevant departments of the wenzhou model 105 home small micro enterprise sampling survey，In the initial capital source of enterprise，There are 90 enterprises through the folk lending to raise capital，85.71%，There are 32 home initial startup capital completely through the folk lending get，30.5%。

　　“涉企型民间借贷在数量上已远超过个人消费型借贷。”报告判断。这背后，是中小微企业融资渠道狭窄的无奈。报告通过全省调研指出，国有商业银行的贷款，给民营企业的大概不到10%。

“SheQi folk in the number of lending has far more than individual consumer lending。”The report judgment。Behind this，The small and medium-sized enterprise financing channel is narrow small the helpless。Through the investigation report said，The state-owned commercial bank loans，For the private enterprise's probably less than 10%。

　　由于融资困难，民间借贷市场的利率不断走高。根据中国人民银行温州市中心支行公布，2012年4月温州民间借贷综合利率平均水平为21.58%。浙江省一些民间融资活跃的地区，月利率普遍在2分、3分以上，有的甚至达5分以上。

Because the financing difficulties，Lending market interest rates folk rising high。According to the people's bank of China wenzhou central subbranch announced，April 2012 wenzhou folk lending comprehensive interest rates average of 21.58%。Zhejiang province some folk financing active region，When rates generally in two points、More than three points，Some even up to 5 points。

　　但其中的风险显而易见，“一旦经济形势变化，就容易造成企业经营困难，偿债能力降低，而民间借贷融资成本高又加剧了债务清偿风险。”报告称。

But the risk is obvious，“Once the economic situation changes，Is easy to cause the enterprise management difficulties，Debt paying ability reduce，And private-loan financing cost tall and increased risk of debts。”The report says。

　　同时，投机型的借贷资金也造成了风险，“浙江人喜欢搞投资，大量资金流向房地产和矿产。而目前，市场状况和很多宏调政策都使得这些投资难以为继，资金链有可能因此断裂。”浙商研究会副会长徐王婴称。

At the same time，Cast type of lending money also caused the risk，“Zhejiang people like to make the investment，A large amount of money to flow to the real estate and mineral。And the，Market conditions and a lot of macro adjustment policy makes the investment to be carried on，Capital chain may therefore fracture。”Zhejiang merchants, vice President of research XuWang baby says。