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房地产“马甲信托”盛行 艺术品信托回调风险大--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-25
上半年,集合信托收益率有下降趋势,期限倒挂现象依然存在。基础设施领域集合信托产品供需两旺,房地产“马甲信托”盛行。专家认为,艺术品目前已是强弩之末,有回调趋势。
In the first half,Set the trust there is a downturn in return,Time hangs upside down phenomenon still exists。The infrastructure sector set two popular trust products supply and demand,Real estate“Ma3 jia3 trust”popular。Experts say,Art is already the fatigue,A callback trend。
日前最新出炉的普益财富《2012年上半年信托市场分析报告》显示,上半年,房地产领域产品成立287款,同比下降92款,环比下降113款。基础设施领域产品成立214款,比去年同期增加125款,比去年全年增加15款,增长较为明显。由于艺术品信托受到质疑,商品领域产品成立也较少,二季度成立数量大减。同时,集合信托市场的收益有下降趋势。收益率倒挂现象依然存在,显示出市场对中国经济预期悲观,预期资金价格将在数年后继续下跌。
Recently released PuYi of wealth《In the first half of 2012 the trust the market analysis report》shows,In the first half,Founded in 287 in real estate products,Year-on-year drop in 92,Annulus of 113 drop。The infrastructure sector was established in 214 products,Last year in 125,Last year than increase 15 paragraph,Growth are relatively obvious。Because art trust questioned,The field of product goods less was established,The number was a great decrease in the second quarter。At the same time,The return of the trust the market set to decline。There are still down yields phenomenon,That market to China's economy expected pessimistic,Funds will be expected prices continue to fall in a few years。
房地产信托:资金腾挪汹涌 Real estate trusts:Capital move STH turbulent
2012年是房地产信托集中到期年,据中金公司的研究报告,2012年到期的房地产信托资金量将达到2500亿,这个资金量略大于2011年房地产信托的成立规模。2月底3月初,房地产信托有回暖之势,但幅度不大,预期收益率稳中有升。另一方面,大量房地产信托宣布提前到期,这让人不得不警觉:当时房地产资金极度紧缺:房地产销售清淡,一直持续到2月中下旬成交量才有一定反弹,但通常购房使用按揭贷款,开发商实际回笼资金的时间应该在3月份之后,那房地产商还款的资金来源于何处?
2012 is the year on real estate trust expires,According to the cicc research report,Until 2012 the trust financing volume of real estate will reach to 250 billion,The financing volume is slightly bigger than 2011 years of real estate trusts established scale。By the end of February early march,Real estate trusts have warmed of power,But range is not too much,Are the expected rate of return。On the other hand,A large real estate trusts announced expires in advance,It makes people have to alert:When real estate funds extreme shortage:Real estate sales light,Continued until late February to have certain volume rebound,But usually buys a room to use mortgage loan,Developers of receivables of actual time should be after in March,The real estate business reimbursement to money from where?
普益财富研究员范杰说,有些房地产开发商旗下有多个项目,可以通过A项目融资以归还B项目的信托贷款;有些房地产开发商利用关联企业融资,然后再将资金投向房地产项目;还有些信托公司将投向房地产项目的信托产品包装为房地产基金产品。不管采取上述哪种做法,都有一定对投资者欺瞒的嫌疑,都会给投资者带来潜在风险。
PuYi wealth researchers FanJie said,Some real estate developer's multiple projects,Can through A project financing to repay the loan project B trust;Some real estate developers used association enterprise financing,Then will fund in the real estate projects;Some trust company turned real estate projects of the trust of the product packaging for real estate fund products。No matter which way to take the above,Have some suspected of cheating the to investors,Will give investors with potential risks。
基础设施信托:供需两旺 Infrastructure trust:Supply and demand two popular
上半年, 214款基础设施领域集合信托产品合计募集资金503.96亿元,较2011年大幅上涨。范杰说,基础设施领域产品的兴起,一方面是因为上半年GDP增速破8,为了保持经济较快增长,各地基础设施项目上马较多,新增项目有旺盛的资金需求。其次,地方债务平台的存量债务到期,在土地财政吃紧的情况下,债务展期和借新还旧成了地方政府的必然选择,而借新,银行会有较苛刻的条件,信托无疑是一个较好的选择。另一方面,由于基础设施领域信托预期收益率较以前有一定提升,较之其他领域集合信托对投资者有更大的吸引力。且此类产品都有地方政府显性或隐性做担保,投资者非常热衷,资金供给自然充足。
In the first half, 214 of the infrastructure sector set total trust products raise capital of 50.396 billion yuan,A 2011 years are rising dramatically。FanJie said,The infrastructure sector product's rise,On the one hand, because GDP growth in the first half of the eight,In order to keep the economy growing rapidly,All infrastructure projects more on horseback,New project has the strong financing needs。second,Place the debt is due in the inventory of debt platform,In the land of finances,Debt extension and borrow new also old became the necessary choice of the local government,And borrow new,The bank will have a harsh conditions,The trust is certainly a better choice。On the other hand,Because the infrastructure sector trust the expected rate of return than before a certain ascend,Compared with those of other fields to set the trust are more attractive for investors。And such products have the local government dominant or recessive do guarantee,Investors are very keen,Capital supply natural enough。
艺术品信托:警惕泡沫 Art trust:Alert bubble
艺术品信托一直备受投资者青睐,部分信托公司将之冠以“创新”名号,乐此不疲。但范杰认为,艺术品属于另类投资,具有受众小、公允价值难获得、流动性差等缺点,并不适合于一般投资者。而且,目前发行的艺术品信托投资方向多为书画、瓷器,这类物件的交易价格不仅仅取决于其内在价值,更重要的是取决于投资者的主观评价。此外,目前国内市场上的艺术品信托产品期限较短,投资标的在信托期限内大幅度升值的可能性不大。
Art trust has been praised by the investors,Part of the trust company will label“innovation”name,happy。But FanJie think,Art belong to alternative investments,Has small audience、Harder to get fair value、Poor liquidity shortcomings,Not suitable for the average investor。and,Current issue of trust and investment direction for art more than painting and calligraphy、porcelain,This kind of object market price depends not only on the intrinsic value,More important is depends on subjective assessment of the investors。In addition,The current domestic market works of art trust product short term,Investment mark in the trust period are likely to rise significantly。
范杰认为,目前中国艺术品市场已经出现较大泡沫。2008年春拍后,尤其是2010年秋拍后部分项指数加速上涨,目前已是强弩之末,已有回调趋势。中国经济目前有较高的下行风险,一旦经济疲软,藏家的经营性收入减少,艺术品赖以维持高价的资金紧张,部分泡沫就会破灭,有较高的市场风险。
FanJie think,At present Chinese art market has appear larger bubble。2008 years after the spring is patted,Especially the 2010 autumn patted the breakdown index speeded up,At present already fatigue,Existing callback trend。China's economy at present have higher downside risk,Once the economic weakness,The business income decrease collectors,Artwork on the high cost of maintaining of funds,Part of the bubble will burst,A higher market risk。
记者 陈宁
Reporter ChenNing
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