记者观察 Reporter observation

　　本报记者 张炜

Our reporter zhang wei's

　　上证指数24日开盘后瞬间跌破2132点，盘中最低2131.01点。这是1月6日政策底形成以来的首次跌破。所幸的是，大盘很快反攻，收盘于2146.59点，上涨0.24%。

The Shanghai index 24 days of open moments after below 2132 points，Pan lowest 2131.01 points。This is January 6 policy for first time since the form below。The good news is，Grail soon counter-offensive，Closing at 2146.59 points，Up 0.24%。

　　由于市场担心西班牙可能需要全面救助，以及希腊或将退出欧元区，全球股市遭遇“黑色星期一”。23日，上证指数跌1.26%收于2141.40点，创出2009年3月16日以来的收盘新低，退守至考验政策底的悬崖边。隔夜美股下挫，使上证指数24日以2132.32点开盘，跌破了年初低点2132.63点。值得注意的是，股指跌破2132点的“杀手”不单是欧债危机，内因也有很大关系。23日的大跌中，银行股再度集体破位下挫，招商银行、华夏银行(600015,股吧)、浦发银行(600000,股吧)等分别下跌3.00%、3.00%、2.10%。24日，银行股继续呈跌势，工商银行、建设银行、交通银行跌幅均超过1%。利率市场化及两次降息，进一步降低了市场对银行股未来业绩增长的预期，低市盈率及“破净”未对股价起到支撑作用。

Since the market worry about Spain may need to comprehensive aid，And the Greek or will be out of the euro zone，Global stock markets in“Black Monday”。23，The Shanghai index fell 1.26% to close at 2141.40，Making on March 16, 2009, the low since closed，To test the policy of withdraw the cliff。Us stocks fell overnight，Make the Shanghai index 24 at 2132.32 PM est，Early fell low 2132.63 points。Note the，The stock index fell below 2132 points“killer”Not only is the debt crisis，Internal cause also has the very big relations。23 in the crash，Bank shares a collective broken down again，China merchants bank、Huaxia bank(600015,Shares it)、Shanghai pudong development bank(600000,Shares it)And fallen 3.00%、3.00%、2.10%。24，Bank stocks continue to break in，Industry and commerce bank、Construction bank、Bank of communications fell by more than 1%。Interest rate marketization and two cuts，To further reduce the market to the bank shares rise in the expected future performance，A low p/e and“Broken net”Not to share price supportive。

　　“内忧外患”困扰的A股，24日迎来两个利好消息。其一，据媒体报道，保监会即将出台的《关于保险资金投资股权和不动产有关问题的通知》，允许保险资金可以投资的股权投资基金包括并购基金、新兴战略产业基金等。这部分投资不计入此前保险资金投资股票与基金最高25%的比例范畴内，意味着保险资金投资股票和基金比例上限变相突破。其二，24日发布的7月份汇丰PMI初值为49.5，创下5个月以来最高，制造业产出指数初值为51.2，较6月份49.3的水平上升，创9个月最高。这表明前期的宽松措施开始产生效果，经济增长有望在未来几个月得以好转。然而，这两个消息对大盘的利好作用有限，无法完全消除资金面紧张及经济下滑风险带来的担忧。

“For their”Troubling A shares，24 have two of the good news。one，According to media reports，Upcoming law of circ《About insurance fund investment in real estate and equity of the relevant questions of the notice》，Allow insurance funds can invest in the equity investment fund includes m&a fund、New strategic industry funds。This part of the investment not included in the previous insurance funds invest in stocks and funds of the proportion of the top 25% in the category，Means that insurance funds invest in stocks and funds proportion limit breakthrough in disguised form。The second，Released in July 24, the HSBC PMI initial value is 49.5，A highest since 5 months，Manufacturing output index for 51.2 initial value，A June 49.3 level up，"Nine months the highest。This suggests that the loose measures began to produce effect，Economic growth is expected to begin in the next few months to get better。however，The two good news to the limited role，The financing side not eliminate tension and downside risks bring concerns。

　　7月中旬以来，大盘跌至2132点附近表现出一定的抗跌性，显示市场对政策底的看重。24日开盘跌破2132点后，股指在钢铁、房地产等板块拉动下翻红。其中，房地产板块得益于南京23日宣布扩大内需拉动消费的30条《意见》。该《意见》提出“促进房地产消费”，对入选“321”计划的人才视同南京户籍，并将给予购房补贴。

Since the middle of July，Grail fall to near 2132 show some of the resistance of fall，Display market value of the bottom of the policy。24 days of open after below 2132 points，Stock index in the iron and steel、Real estate sectors such as turn red the incomes。Among them，The housing sector benefit from nanjing 23 announced that the expansion of domestic demand of consumption article 30《opinion》。the《opinion》Put forward“To promote real estate consumption”，Elected to“321”The personnel shall be deemed as nanjing census register plan，And will give purchase subsidies。

　　然而，大盘摆脱政策底告急的困境，仍有相当难度。当前大盘反弹的最大制约因素在于基本面，半年报不佳是近期调整的主因。钢铁、房地产股同样如此，其半年报存在一定的问题。截至上周末，已有10家钢企预告首亏或续亏，9家钢企预减。例如，首钢股份(000959,股吧)称，受钢铁主业市场环境恶化的影响，预计2012年中期净利润亏损2.5亿元至3.5亿元，而上年同期的盈利为3.06亿元。

however，From the bottom of the market of the dilemma of the state policy，There are still quite difficult。The current market of the biggest factors in rebound fundamentals，Half annals not beautiful is the main reason of the adjustment in near future。steel、Real estate stocks as well，The half annals, there are some problems。By last weekend，10 steel enterprises have forecast a deficit or XuKui first，Nine steel enterprises the subtraction。For example，Shougang shares(000959,Shares it)says，Steel industry market by the influence of the deterioration of the environment，By the middle of 2012 is expected to net profit loss 250 million yuan to 350 million yuan，And in the same period of the previous year earnings for 306 million yuan。

　　半年报密集披露，经济下滑对上市公司业绩的影响逐渐显现。上半年，全国国有及国有控股企业累计实现的利润总额同比下降11.6%，这预示着上市公司整体业绩不乐观。截至23日收盘，沪深300整体滚动市盈率（不调整）为10.28倍，创出沪深300指数推出以来的最低水平；剔除负值后的沪深300市盈率首次跌破10倍整数关口，23日收盘为9.97倍。可在业绩增长存隐忧的市场中，投资者担心低估值含有“水分”，部分公司面临业绩变脸的风险。因而，2132点跌破后虽有反弹，但抄底资金不多。沪市24日成交467亿元，是7月份以来最少的日成交量。

Half annals dense disclosure，Economic downturn of the listed company, achievement influence appears gradually。In the first half，The national state-owned and state holding enterprise accumulative total of the realization of the total profits 11.6% year-on-year drop，This indicates the overall performance of listed companies is not optimistic。By the closing 23,，Csi 300 overall rolling p/e ratio（Don't adjust）For 10.28 times，Creating csi 300 index the lowest since the launch；Eliminate the negative csi 300 p/e ratio of first fell below 10 times integer pass，23, 9.97 times to close。But in the growth performance of the markets save worry，Investors worry that a low valuation contains“moisture”，Part of the face of the company faces performance risk。so，2132 points after breaking though a rebound，But the few copy funds。Shanghai 24, 46.7 billion yuan clinch a deal，Since July is the least daily turnover。

　　2132点“闪电”跌破后的有惊无险，不等于政策底告急的警报彻底解除，利空引发股指下跌的危险依然存在。不过，随着时间的推移，若三季度经济表现如机构所预测的回升，股市也将迎来企稳与反弹的机会。三、四季度GDP反弹至8%以上，货币政策微调带来流动性趋于宽松，对股市反弹应该是好消息。

2132 points“lightning”After breaking the near misses，Is not equal to the policy of the state alarm thoroughly remove，Bad stock index fell by risks remain。but，As time goes on，If three quarters of economic performance such as organization predicted to bounce back，The stock market will also have the opportunity to stabilising and rebound。three、The fourth quarter GDP rally to more than 8%，Monetary policy fine-tuning bring the easing of liquidity，To the stock market rally should be good news。