本报讯 尽管内外环境仍有一些利空压制，但市场一直期待的积极因素正在逐步显现。

Report from our correspondent despite internal and external environment is still some bad press，But the market has been looking forward to positive factor is gradually appear。

　　积极因素逐渐显现 Positive factors appears gradually

　　24日，市场密切关注的7月汇丰PMI数据初值升至49.5，创五个月新高，其中需求指数和生产指数回升，此前该数据已经连续数月下行。这表明前期采取的宽松措施开始起效，业内预计该指数将延续反弹，意味着情况最糟的私营企业领域可能有所好转。

24，Market pay close attention to the HSBC PMI data July initial value rose to 49.5，And five months high，One needs index and production index to bounce back，After the data has for months to the downside。This suggests that early take loose measures to work，The expected the index will continue to rebound，Means the worst private enterprise domains may be better。

　　从7月份上中旬电量数据来看，上旬电量同比为2.2%，环比为7.4%，高于2005年以来的平均环比值3.3%，中旬电量同比为5.1%，环比为1.3%，也高于2005年以来的平均环比为1%，其中，中旬日均发电量绝对水平创出历史新高。

From July occurrence peak power data to see，A power for 2.2% year-on-year，Annulus comparing 7.4%，More than 2005 years of average 3.3% month-on-month value，Power for the middle 5.1% year-on-year，Annulus comparing 1.3%，And also higher than the average annulus since 2005 is 1%，Among them，Average daily capacity of the absolute level in the middle of a record。

　　由于电量数据与工业增加值数据密切相关，有分析人士预计7月份工业增加值同比数据将继续回升。申万研究员屈庆初步测算大约在9.8%-10%之间，甚至不排除突破10%的可能，同时需要持续观察下旬电量数据。

Due to the power and value added of industry data data closely related，Have analysts expect the July value added of industry data will continue to recover year-on-year。"All QuQing preliminary estimates about the researcher at between 9.8% and 10%，Don't even ruled out the possibility of 10% breakthrough，At the same time need continuous observation data is late。

　　值得一提的是，地方政府债7月份前25天已经发行了709亿元，而6月份只有416亿元。而近期包括宁波、南京等地相继表示通过减税、促进消费等多项措施稳定经济增长。7月前半月四大行新增人民币贷款500亿左右，基本是上月同期的两倍，据称，这种投放节奏的加快得益于部分稳增长项目已进入放款期。

It is，The local government debt before July 25 days has issued 70.9 billion yuan，And in June 41.6 billion yuan only。And recent including ningbo、Nanjing on tax cuts have said、Promote consumption and other measures stable economic growth。Four and a half months before July: a new renminbi loans around 50 billion，Basic is doubled from the same period last month，allegedly，This kind of on the rhythm speeding up thanks to steady growth of the project has been into the loan period。

　　多位业内人士认为，由于汇丰PMI初值仍低于50，而前期稳增长的措施已经收到成效，估计预调微调的力度仍会适当加大以支持经济和就业增长。昨日，在国新办举行的关于“2012年上半年全国工业通信业发展情况”的新闻发布会上，工信部党组成员、总工程师朱宏任表示，下一步，按照国务院统一部署，坚持稳中求进的总基调，把稳增长放到更加重要的位置，加快推进工业转型升级。

Many insiders，Because HSBC PMI initial value is still less than 50，The steady growth of the measures and results has been received，Estimate the strength of will still fine-tuning presetters proper enlargement to support economic growth and employment。yesterday，In countries at the new do about“In the first half of 2012 the national industrial telecommunication industry development”News conference，Work BuDangZu letter members、The chief engineer ZhuHongRen said，The next step，In accordance with the unified plan of the state council，Adhere to the WenZhongQiuJin total fundamental key，BaWen growth in more important position，Speed up the industrial transformation and upgrade。

　　海通证券(600837,股吧)策略高级分析师荀玉根认为，信贷宽松开始对实体经济发挥积极作用，支撑下半年一波行情的因素开始显现。

Haitong securities(600837,Shares it)Senior analyst XunYuGen think that strategy，Credit loose to economic entity began to play a positive role，The second half of a wave of support market factors is beginning to show。

　最差盈利提示时机 The worst earnings tip opportunity

　　通常的毛利率分析依赖于经济增长、成本和产品价格的预测。多位市场人士认为，经济底部逐渐进入视野，预期还会有宽松政策推出。平安证券策略分析师王韧接受记者采访时称，“预计经济二季度已经见底，之后会有一个温和的、逐步释放的过程。”

Usually gross margin analysis depends on economic growth、Costs and product price forecast。Many people think that the market，Economic bottom gradually come into view，Is expected to launch a loose policy。Peace strategy WangRen securities analysts said to reporters，“The economy in the second quarter had seen bottom，Then there will be a moderate、Gradually release process。”

　　此外，当前价格初步企稳，短期有利于企业盈利能力企稳。近期国内外煤价出现弱势企稳迹象（秦皇岛标杆价维持在620元/吨，纽卡斯尔动力煤较6月中旬低点回升3.5%；国内海运费结束了14周下跌趋势，秦皇岛至上海和广州海运费近两周累计反弹5.7%和8%）。上期所螺纹钢主力合约周一触及3652元/吨的低点后也连续2日反弹。

In addition，The current price preliminary stabilising，Short-term benefit to the enterprise profitability stabilising。Coal prices at home and abroad in recent weak stabilising signs（Qinhuangdao benchmarking price maintain in 620 yuan/ton，Newcastle coal power than the middle of June low picks up 3.5%；Domestic ocean freight over 14 weeks trend down，Qinhuangdao to Shanghai and guangzhou sea freight nearly two weeks accumulative total rebound 5.7% and 8%）。The main contract previous rebar Monday touch 3652 yuan/ton lows for 2 days after rebound。

　　中信建投策略分析师吴启权预计，在7-8月份附近中国经济当触到一个短期的底部，这个底部首先是一个价格的底部，但不是库存的底部，随后库存仍有可能继续累加，但经济底部已经在形成之中了。

Citic strategy WuQiQuan analysts expected，7-August in China's economy when touch near the bottom of a short-term，The bottom first, it is a price of the bottom，But not the bottom of the inventory，Then the stock remained is likely to continue to attack，But the economy has been formed in the bottom。

　　海外经验表明，代表未来方向的企业盈利能力较高。有研究发现，韩国经济进入相对低增速阶段后企业整体盈利能力反而高于前期，其中原因有，一、新兴产业盈利能力较高；二、新强势产业盈利能力明显上升。期间大部分传统行业机会较少，新成长起来的支柱产业、新兴产业ROE处于高位，消费品行业ROE水平不高，但是整体经历了上升趋势，这些行业股市也表现较好。就国内来看，申万看好代表未来的医药、环保、证券、保险。

Overseas experience shows that，To represent the future direction of the enterprise profitability is higher。Studies have found that，South Korea's economy into the relatively low growth phase of whole enterprise profitability is higher than the instead，The reasons why have，a、Emerging industry profitability is higher；two、New strong industry profitability enhanced obviously。Most of the traditional industry opportunities during the less，New grow up pillar industry、Emerging industry in high ROE，Consumer goods industry ROE level is not high，But the overall experience an upward trend，These industries stock market also played better。In China to see，"All represent the future value of the medicine、Environmental protection、securities、insurance。

　　荀玉根看好下半年市场。他认为，增长政策推进下，经济望从衰退步入弱复苏，估值和盈利由上半年的“一升一降”逐渐变为“双升”，盈利最差时期是战略布局时机。

XunYuGen bullish on the second half of the market。He thinks，Growth of policy，Look from recession into weak economic recovery，Valuations and earnings by the first half of the year“A liter of a drop”Gradually becoming“Double rise”，Profit is the worst time period strategic layout。

　　不过，王韧认为企业盈利见底的时间并不是现在。他告诉记者，工业企业净利率5.7%，并不可能去产能，也不可能有结构调整；另一方面，企业的经营性现金流比营业收入大幅下降，财报中的业绩有虚增的成分，包括应收账款和存货，存货跌价准备也计提不充分。但他表示，经营性现金流的分化利好非周期性行业和优质公司。 记者 王金萍

but，WangRen think the enterprise profit see bottom of time and not now。He told reporters，Industrial enterprise net interest rate 5.7%，Not likely to capacity，There can be neither structure adjustment；On the other hand，Enterprise business cash flow than operating income drop significantly，The earnings performance of empty to add ingredients，Including accounts receivable and inventory，Inventory write-down also shall not fully。But he said，Operating cash flow of good the cyclical industry and differentiation of high quality company。 Reporter WangJinPing