上市公司盈利增速仍存下调空间 Listed companies' profit growth remain cut space

　　本报讯 随着上市公司中报披露工作的展开，不少公司也在提前披露三季报。到记者昨日截稿时，沪深两市已有20家公司发布了三季报业绩预告，仅有歌尔声学(002241,股吧)、海思科(002653,股吧)、星网锐捷(002396,股吧)和恰恰食品预增报喜，其余多为预亏或略增，预喜公司数成为了稀缺品种。

Report from our correspondent with the listed company center daily news disclosure work started，Many companies also in early information three quarterly reports。To reporters yesterday when the deadline，Shenzhen two city for 20 companies released three quarterly performance forecast，Only's acoustic songs(002241,Shares it)、The sea cisco(002653,Shares it)、Starnet sharp the(002396,Shares it)And on the food the good news to increase，More than the rest for the kui or slightly increased，The company became scarce or several varieties。

　　一分“耕耘”一分收获 A points“cultivation”A gain

　　歌尔声学预计公司2012年1至9月净利润同比增长60%至90%，业绩变动的主要原因为随着智能时代到来，智能终端产业发展迅速带动电声器件及电子配件快速增长。海思科预计今年前三季度净利润同比增长35%至65%，上年同期净利润2.01亿元，业绩增长得益于公司主营业务持续稳定增长，内部管理不断加强。

Expect the company's acoustic songs in January 2012 to September net profit up 60% to 90%，Changes in performance was the main cause of the era with intelligence，Intelligent terminal industry development driven electronic devices and electronic parts fast growth。The sea is expected to net profit in the previous three quarters of this year cisco year-on-year growth of 35% to 65%，The same period last year net profit of 201 million yuan，Growth performance benefit from the company's main business steady growth，Strengthen the internal management。

　　强劲的业绩增长使得公司的股价也早早在市场表现出来，大盘自5月份连续下跌以来，歌尔声学却在同期大幅飙升，累计上涨幅度达到了36%。同样海思科自4月份启动以来，股价由最先的17元处最高攀升至32元上方，上涨幅度将近翻了一番。

Strong earnings growth has made the company's stock price is also in the performance of the markets out early，Since the market in May, after falling since，In the same period, but acoustic songs has soared，Cumulative rises to 36%。Cisco in April from the same since the launch，By the first 17 yuan share prices climbed to the highest place above $32，Rises nearly doubled。

　　此外，星网锐捷在昨晚的半年度报告中预计今年1-9月归属于上市公司股东的净利润变动幅度20% 至 50% 。

In addition，Starnet sharp the last night in the semiannual report this year is expected to 1-September relegated to the shareholders of a listed company net income variations of 20% to 50% 。

　　就在上述四家公司报喜时，7家公司预计略微增长，西仪股份(002265,股吧)、S*ST聚友与久其软件(002279,股吧)3家公司预计亏损，双鹭药业(002038,股吧)、巨力索具(002342,股吧)则预计下降，还有两家公司无法确定。好的业绩表现出来的股价上涨，差的业绩预期则带来的就是股价大跌，首次预亏的久其软件自6月8日复权之后累计下跌幅度已达25%。西仪股份的市场走势也同样萎靡不振。

In the above four companies report good news，Seven companies are expected to increase slightly，West instrument shares(002265,Shares it)、S * * * * ST juyou and long its software(002279,Shares it)Three companies expected losses，Double heron pharmaceutical(002038,Shares it)、Can the rigging(002342,Shares it)Is expected to decline，And the two companies cannot be sure about。Good performance out of the share price rises，Poor performance expectations would bring is stocks tumbled，First the deficit long since the software on June 8, answer authority after accumulative total fell by 25%。The instrument of the shares market trends also sluggish。

　　湘财证券策略分析师徐广福昨日向《大众证券报》表示：“业绩成长成为了股价重要的驱动力，业绩增长或下滑的变数股价总是最先做出反应，财务报表出来时也是消化完毕了，这样说明市场是有效的，相当于一分耕耘一分收获；所以在上市公司业绩增速尚未言底的情况下，去预测A股市场已经到底应当是不客观的，所以市场寻底过程还将持续。”

XiangCai securities analysts XuGuangFu strategy to yesterday《Public stock certificate report》said：“Performance became the share price growth of important driving force，Growth performance or declining variables are the first to share price to respond，Financial statements is finished out digestion，So that is the effective market，Equivalent to no pains no gains；So in the performance of listed companies have not yet the growth rate of words，To predict the A share market has really should be objective，So the market will continue to search process。”

　　全年盈利增速仍可下调 Annual earnings growth still can be cut

　　中小板与创业板中报预披露高峰之后，也就是在7月15日至昨日，两市仍有75家公司发布了中报预告，从所属板块上观察，大多数是“600”打头的沪市主板，“亏损”与“预减”依然成为了最“热门”的预告类型。统计显示，1474家公司中预计上半年净利润增长的仅有194家，仅占已预告总数的14%，这一水平远低于去年同期水平，就“首亏”一项竟高达246家，远超过预喜家数。

Small and medium plate and gem after peaking gets reported disclosure，It is in July 15 to yesterday，Two city there are still 75 companies released forecast reported，From the subordinate plate observation，Most is“600”The led the Shanghai motherboard，“losses”and“Reduced the”Still be the most“popular”Forecast type。Statistics show that，1474 companies in the first half of the expected net income growth had only 194，Only accounts for 14% of the total number of forecast，This level is far lower than the same period last year level，it“First kui”A home that is as high as 246，Far more than the number of joy。

　　中金最新观点认为，按照上市公司业绩预告中业绩增速中值来测算中小板、创业板净利增速，二季度单季度中小板、创业板同比盈利分别下降至6%和2%，中小板同比盈利增速较一季度有一定回升，创业板增速则继续下滑。按照目前2012 年全年业绩一致预期，中小板和创业板盈利增速仍然高达29%和40%，隐含下半年同比盈利增速分别要达到60%和70%以上，可见下半年盈利风险的预期并不充分，即便乐观估计下半年中小板和创业板同比增速均能达到30%以上，全年盈利预测仍有15%左右的下调空间。

But the latest view，According to the performance of listed companies in the forecast growth performance in value to measure small and medium-sized board、Gem net profit growth，Single quarter in the second quarter of small and medium plate、Gem profits were down compared to 6% and 2%，Small and medium-sized board year-on-year growth in the first quarter earnings is a must to bounce back，Gem growth continues to decline。According to the current 2012 full year results consistent expectations，Small and medium plate and earnings growth gem is still as high as 29% and 40%，The second half of implicit year-on-year growth rate to 60% profit respectively and more than 70%，The second half of the expected profit is the risk is not fully，Even optimistic estimates that small and medium plate and the second half year-on-year growth gem all can reach more than 30%，Annual profit forecast still has about 15% of the cut space。

　　海通证券(600837,股吧)策略高级分析师荀玉根表示，“盈利加速赶底，上游压力更大。5月工业企业利润增速同比下降2.4%，较4月继续下滑。预计PPI 6月快速回落后，三季度有望底部企稳，由此带动工业企业利润同比降幅减缓。价差指标显示中游原材料工业和加工工业毛利率相比较5月继续改善，下游毛利率有望改善，上游采掘业仍有回落压力。”

Haitong securities(600837,Shares it)Senior analyst XunYuGen said strategy，“Earnings accelerated at the end of time，The upstream pressure more。May the industrial enterprise profit growth 2.4% year-on-year drop，More on April continue to slide。Expected PPI June fell back quickly，In the third quarter is expected to stabilising the bottom，Thus impetusing industrial enterprise profits drop compared to the slowdown。The price index showed industrial raw material and processing industry middle gross margin may continue to improve compared，Gross margin is expected to improve downstream，The extractive industries still has dropped pressure。”

　　不过中金提醒，分主题比较看，智能电视、智能电网软件、生物育种、城市安防、消费电子、绿化装饰、股权激励等主题业绩预告中值对应增速较高，较市场一致预期基本符合或偏离程度较低，表现较好，值得关注。而地理信息、太阳能、轨道交通装备、化工新材料、新能源汽车等主题面临中期业绩地雷的可能性较大且低于预期较多，将面临较大盈利预测下调风险，建议谨慎对待。 记者 徐海峰

But zhongjin remind，Points more see theme，Intelligent TV、Smart grid software、Biological breeding、City security、Consumer electronics、Afforest adornment、Equity incentives theme in the corresponding growth performance forecast is higher，A consistent with market expectations basic or depart from the low degree，better，Is worth to pay close attention to。But the geographical information、solar、Rail traffic equipment、Chemical new material、New energy vehicles theme face the possibility of the medium-term performance mines bigger and more than expected，Will face bigger profit forecast cut risk，Suggested caution。 Reporter xu haifeng got