不久之前，伴随香港回归15周年的庆祝，内地金融改革进程加快，人民币资本项目深圳前海开放格外引起关注。香港拥有国际金融中心的重要地位与影响，这对于一国两制特色的发挥与效率更是极好的平台与机制优势。

Not long ago，With the return of Hong Kong to celebrate the anniversary of the 15，Mainland financial reform to speed up the process，The yuan capital project shenzhen the sea before opening more concern。Hong Kong has an important position in the international financial center and influence，This to one country, two systems feature play and efficiency is excellent platform and mechanism advantage。

　　面对全球金融时代的来临，如何有效发挥香港平台的独特优势和魅力，这对于内地人民币国际化和金融全面开放的意义和作用十分重要，尤其对现阶段内地金融改革的进程和战略十分重大。

With global financial times to come，How to effectively play Hong Kong platform unique advantage and charm，The mainland for RMB internationalization and financial full open significance and function is very important，Especially for the present mainland financial reform process and strategic significant。

　　首先看国际敏感的汇率话题，两地汇率组合效应十分重大。6月22日，据香港《信报》报道，前金管局总裁任志刚的报告掀起了香港各界对联系汇率制度的大讨论。任志刚认为，是时候检讨联汇制度，并提出包括港元与人民币挂钩等参考方法。这种提法虽然挑战了我们研究的禁区，但却是一个迫切而实际的问题所在。随之，有“联汇之父”之称的景顺首席经济学家John Greenwood认为，任志刚高估人民币成为国际储备货币的速度，他认为人民币挑战美元需时数以十年计。他重申实行了29年与美元挂钩的联汇制度仍然最适用于香港，尽管有时美国的货币政策未必适合香港，但相信港元以7.8的汇率水平与美元挂钩，仍然是香港货币稳定最安全及最有效的基础。

First look at the international exchange rate of the sensitive topic，The two combined effect very significant exchange rate。June 22,，According to Hong Kong《hkej》report，The hkma President Joseph yam report before a Hong Kong from the linked exchange rate system of big discussion。Joseph yam think，It is time to review LianHuiZhi degrees，And proposed including Hong Kong dollar and yuan hook reference method。The formulation of our research challenges though the area，But it is an urgent and practical problem。then，have“United the father of collect”Said the JingShun chief economist John Greenwood said，Joseph yam overestimate the yuan as the speed of the international reserve currency，He thinks that the yuan were needed to challenge the dollar ten-year plan。He reiterated that the practice of 29 years and the dollar is still the most LianHuiZhi degrees as applied to Hong Kong，Although sometimes American monetary policy may not be suitable for Hong Kong，But believe that the exchange rate to 7.8 Hong Kong dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar，The Hong Kong monetary stability is still the most safety and the most effective basis。

　　港币的联系汇率制比较适宜香港的特色与发展，这不仅是现实的选择，也是历史的进程。如果要改变，首先需要做的是香港的产业结构和行业配置的调整。因此只谈汇率，不顾产业发展模式与历史，甚至忽略改革和改变的效率面积用再好的汇率机制也无法解决经济基础问题或产业发展潜力，不对症的货币政策模式与架构是毫无意义的。目前的香港联系汇率制度直接面临的挑战来自内地人民币价格的敏感焦点。随着内地人民币连续膨胀乃至无序的升值进程，这不仅伤害了内地产业和经济基础的发展要素，更刺激和加剧香港投机人民币的风险与压力。香港金融中心更多是为投机炒作的人民币避险基地，而非促进人民币境外发展的试验基地。所以当前讨论联系汇率制度的利弊与人民币国际化具有很重要的关联。内地人民币国际化进程中，香港是一个重要的平台和敞口，如何有效达到两地的强强组合，这对于人民币和港币都至关重要。两种货币各自经济环境和产业结构具有差异，更何况品质与素质具有差别，一国两制的格局正是考虑到各自的特色选择的方案与模式组合。因此，我们应该遵循这种大的框架组织原则，进一步完善这种组合的效率和实力，实现各自基础要素的改良和提升。

The currency peg hk $is more features and development of Hong Kong，This is not only real choices，Is also the course of history。If want to change，First need to do is Hong Kong's industrial structure and the adjustment of the industry configuration。Therefore only talk about the exchange rate，Regardless of the industrial development models and history，Even ignoring the efficiency of reform and change in exchange rate mechanism of again good also cannot solve economic foundation or industry development potential，Don't suit the monetary policy mode and architecture is meaningless。The Hong Kong the linked exchange rate system directly from the mainland of the challenges facing the price sensitive focus。Along with the continuous expansion and even disorder mainland appreciation of the process，This not only hurt the mainland industry and economic base development elements，More exciting and increased the risk of Hong Kong speculation renminbi and stress。Hong Kong financial center is more for speculating renminbi hedge base，Instead of promoting the development of the overseas test site。So the current discussion of the linked exchange rate system and the advantages and disadvantages of RMB internationalization has a significant correlation。The mainland in the process of RMB internationalization，Hong Kong is an important platform and open，How to effectively by the powerful combination，This for RMB and Hong Kong dollars is crucial。Two currencies each economic environment and the industrial structure has the difference，Besides the quality and the quality has the difference，The pattern of the "one country, two systems" is considering their own characteristics choose plan and mode combination。so，We should follow this framework organizing principle，To further improve the efficiency of this combination and strength，Implement each basic elements of improvement and ascension。

　　其次看人民币国际化的复杂程度，两地汇率风险关注至关重要。国家发改委不久前在港公布支持深圳前海合作区先行先试政策。其中金融政策方面将设立跨境人民币业务创新试验区、试点跨境贷款、鼓励外资股权投资基金进入前海等。发改委、深圳市政府在港表示，期望将深圳前海打造为现代服务业创新区，促进内地与香港更紧密合作的先导区，协助珠三角地区产业升级，共包括金融、财税、法制、人才、教育医疗及电讯六大政策框架。金融政策方面，国务院将支持前海建立金融业对外开放试验示范窗口，推出支持前海跨境人民币业务创新试验区；跨境贷款试点；鼓励前海企业来香港发债；支持设立前海股权投资基金；鼓励外资股权投资基金进入前海；并且在CEPA框架下，降低香港金融业进入条件；设立前海金融交易平台试点，支持境内外金融机构到前海设立国际或全国性总部。人民币国际化须先做好内部，金融体系的建构本身很专业，需要规范的制度和健全的技术配套才能发生作用。所以考虑人民币国际化必须从基础做起，而不是贸然和西方对接。西方也是先做好内部制度建设，才逐渐走向国际化。

Second look at the complexity of the RMB internationalization，Both the risk of exchange rate attention is very important。The national development and reform commission recently published in Hong Kong to support the sea before the cooperation of shenzhen first try to policy。One financial policy will create a cross-border RMB business innovation experimental district、Pilot cross-border loans、Encourage foreign equity funds into the sea before, etc。The national development and reform commission、Shenzhen government in Hong Kong said，Expect will make the sea before for shenzhen modern service industry innovation area，Promoting inland and Hong Kong closer cooperation leading area，The pearl river delta region to help upgrade of industry，Including financial、Finance and tax、Legal system、talents、Education of medical treatment and telecommunications six big policy framework。Financial policy，The state council will support the sea before opening to establish the financial industry experimental demonstration window，Support the sea before launch cross-border RMB business innovation experimental district；Cross-border loan pilot；Encourage enterprises to the sea before Hong Kong translated；Support up before the sea equity funds；Encourage foreign equity funds into the sea before；And in the framework of CEPA，Reduce the Hong Kong financial industry into conditions；Set up the sea before financial transaction platform pilot，Support and financial institutions to set up the sea before international or national headquarters。RMB internationalization must first make internal，Finance the construction of the system itself is very professional，Need standard system and perfect the technology necessary to produce action。So consider RMB internationalization must start from the base，Not rashly and western docking。The west is also make internal system construction，It gradually toward internationalization。

　　其实从我国现在的种种经济进程的角度看，2015年的时间安排可能过于仓促。该年度对于我国经济可能是一个纠结点，甚至还有危机的较大风险压力，到时候全球可能“扫荡”人民币。人民币自由兑换当前需要解决一个最大的问题，就是汇率制度。目前虽然我们是参考一揽子货币，其配置中各个货币的占比数据并未给公众包括企业家投资者一个明确参数。目前汇改焦点依然在于人民币的价格，汇率制度却鲜见讨论，8年多汇率改革的成败需要重新梳理。

In fact all our country now from the point of view of economic progress，2015 years of time may be too hasty。This year to our country economy may be a entanglements points，Even bigger risk of the crisis of pressure，When the world can“mopping-up”RMB。The yuan freely convertible current needs to solve one of the biggest problems，Is the exchange rate system。At present although we are reference total money，The configuration of each currency of data to the public than did not include entrepreneurs investors a clear parameters。Now the focus is still RMB yuan reform of prices，Exchange rate system is rarely seen discussion，More than eight years exchange rate reform the success or failure of the need to comb。

　　需要注意的一种误导行为是我国推行人民币国际结算，以解决我国的贸易问题，可是我国贸易层面的数据在萎缩，人民币国际结算的作用就值得商榷。目前我国是想用一个数量的概念去占领市场，然后在数量概念的基础上推出了一个离岸市场。而这两种措施如果没有相应的国内金融制度根基，人民币货币国际化和自由化就很难顺畅施行。而且这里有一个非常有利的条件，就是人民币在升值，这造成国际投机者追捧，甚至于出现很大的投机性。其实不能单纯靠数量的概念来解决人民币国际化问题，而应该注重对相关参数变量的品质、效率和结构的概念的重视，这样更能在数据表象下切近经济本质。汇率是双边和多边的，但立足点必须是在本国。而内地货币汇率与香港货币汇率角度比较，两者反向运行特色突出，进而形成人民币加紧香港布局，人民币在港投机性较大，我们有时考量风险角度很紧迫，已经采取关闭和封口的对策，试图避免危机的冲击力。但是我们恰恰忽略两种货币方向、机制与体制的差异性的风险，考量数量时面临价格调整压力和困局；考量价格时面临数量概念冲击性。但是我们恰恰忽略两种货币方向、机制与体制的差异性的风险，考量数量时面临价格调整压力和困局；考量价格时面临数量概念冲击性。尤其是目前我国内部金融体系变革，尤其是利率市场化是实现人民币自由兑换的一个必要条件。这与银行的经营、市场的投资融资都有关系，是一个核心指标。但我国的现实是利率市场化执行受阻后才推出了汇率改革，其实应该抓住利率市场化改革这个点做透做规范，而不是遇阻则止。

Need to be aware of a misguided action is the implementation of the international settlement，In order to solve the problems in China trade，But our country trade aspects of the data are shrinking，The role of the international settlement is questionable。At present our country is to want to use a number of concept to dominate the market，Then the number in the basis of the concept of launched a offshore market。And the two measures if no relevant domestic financial system foundation，Currency RMB internationalization and liberalization will be very difficult to smooth implementation。And there are a very favorable conditions，RMB appreciation is in，This causes the international speculators to chase after hold in both hands，Even appear in large speculative。It doesn't actually realized by number of concept to solve the problem of RMB internationalization，And should pay attention to the related parameters variable quality、The concept of efficiency and structure of attention，This can be in more data representation closest the nature of the economy。Exchange rate is bilateral and multilateral，But foothold must be in their own country。And the mainland currency exchange rate and the Hong Kong currency exchange rate is Angle，Both reverse operation unique characteristics，Then forms the yuan to Hong Kong layout，The yuan in Hong Kong large speculative，We sometimes risk Angle is pressing concerns，Has taken off and sealing countermeasures，Try to avoid the impact of the crisis。But we just ignore two currencies direction、Mechanism and system of the diversity of the risk，Consider the amount of the price adjustment and dilemma facing pressure；Consider the prices face quantity concept impact。But we just ignore two currencies direction、Mechanism and system of the diversity of the risk，Consider the amount of the price adjustment and dilemma facing pressure；Consider the prices face quantity concept impact。Especially at present our country's internal financial system reform，Particularly interest rate marketization is make the yuan convertible a necessary condition。This with the bank management、The market to the investment and financing have relations，Is a core index。But the reality of our country is the interest rate marketization executive blocked just released after the exchange rate reform，In fact should grab the market-oriented interest rate reform this point do through do norms，Not blocked the check。

　　在这样一种特色环境下和特殊时期讨论人民币和港币合作模式与框架具有十分重要的意义，更需要驾驭风险的勇气和考验睿智的智慧。

In such a feature environment and special period to discuss cooperation mode and RMB and Hong Kong dollars framework has the very vital significance，Need more risk control of courage and test the wisdom of the wise。