本报记者 王颖春

Our correspondent WangYingChun

　　根据现行成品油定价机制，国内成品油9日晚将迎来调价窗口。多家分析机构认为，考虑到CPI同比涨幅持续走低等因素，此轮调价延迟的可能性不大，预计10日汽柴油调价将即时调整，上调幅度可能为每吨450元左右。未来一段时期，随着CPI压力的逐渐减轻，只要国际原油价格不超过定价机制设定的价格极限，预计后期无论是涨还是跌，国内汽柴油价格按照定价机制及时调整的可能性逐渐增大。

According to the current product oil pricing mechanism，Domestic oil refiners have 9 th window。Several analysis says，Considering the CPI up or stay low, and other factors，This round of refiners are not likely to delay，Gasoline and diesel are expected to 10, there will be instant adjustment，For every tons could increase by 450 yuan。The future for a period of time，With CPI pressure gradually ease，As long as the international oil prices don't more than pricing mechanism price set limit，Later whether it is expected to go up to still drop，Domestic gasoline and diesel prices to adjust pricing mechanism according to the possibility of increased gradually。

　　国际油价大幅反弹 The international oil prices rebound sharply

　　6月22日以来，受欧美可能再度出台经济刺激计划、伊朗时局紧张、美国部分经济数据好转等一系列因素刺激，国际原油价格强劲反弹，截至8月7日，布伦特原油价格从最低的89.67美元/桶反弹至110美元/桶，反弹幅度达22.7%；美国原油价格从最低的77.69美元/桶上涨至93.45美元/桶，反弹幅度达20.3%。

Since June 22,，The European and American may again on the economic stimulus plan、Iran's tense、U.S. economic data, and a series of part better factors stimulation，The international oil prices bounce，As of August 7,，Brent crude oil prices from the lowest $89.67 / barrel rally to $110 a barrel，Rebound rate of 22.7%；The price of crude oil from the lowest $77.69 / barrel rise to $93.45 / barrel，Rebound rate of 20.3%。

　　新华社石油价格系统8日发布的数据显示，8月7日，三地（迪拜、布伦特、辛塔）原油移动平均价格变化率达6.75%。如果国际油价维持在目前价格水平波动，三地原油价格变化率9日将接近7.5%，国内成品油价格理论上的上调幅度每吨应在500元左右。

The xinhua news agency oil price system 8 statistics released，August 7,，three（dubai、brent、Michael essien tower）Crude oil prices moving average rate of 6.75%。If the international oil prices remain in the current price level fluctuations，The three places crude oil prices rate 9 will be close to 7.5%，Domestic product prices rise every tons of amplitude in theory should be in 500 yuan or so。

　　新华社资深经济分析师付少华认为，国内CPI持续走低，打开了汽柴油价格上调空间，且二季度以来，炼油持续亏损，主营炼厂陆续压产、促销、降库。由于近期原油价格强劲反弹，汽柴油批发价格不断上扬，地炼汽柴油库存也快速下降。因此，在8月9日国内成品油价格调整窗口开启之日，汽柴油价格可能会在10日及时上调，预计上调幅度为每吨400—450元。

The xinhua news agency senior economic analysts FuShaoHua think，Domestic CPI falling，Open the gasoline and diesel prices rise space，And since the second quarter，Refining loss-making，The main refinery YaChan in succession、promotion、Drop library。With the recent oil price rallies，Wholesale prices rising gasoline and diesel，Refined gasoline and diesel to stocks falling fast。so，On August 9, domestic product prices adjust the window Open Day，Gasoline and diesel prices May 10, raised in time，The rate of increase is expected to every tons of 400-450 yuan。

　　卓创分析师陈晴预计，成品油调价窗口将在9日开启。由于当前通胀压力不大，在前期“三连跌”的情况下，主营炼厂的亏损较为严重，而下半年需求高峰即将到来，为了保证主营炼厂的利润和生产积极性，此次调价有望在10日凌晨及时进行，预计上调幅度为每吨350-400元。

Zhuo and ChenQing analysts expected，Oil refiners window will open in September。The current inflation pressure is not big，In the early“Three even fall”Under the condition of the，The main of serious losses refinery，And the second half peak demand is coming soon，In order to guarantee the refinery profits and main production enthusiasm，This is expected to introduce in 10, in morning，The rate of increase is expected to every tons of 350-400 yuan。

　　年内油荒可能性小

Years less likely fuel shortages

　　付少华分析，目前国内成品油定价机制对国际原油价格的平滑和延迟反应作用十分明显，即使本次每吨上调450元，汽柴油价格也只是恢复了连续三次下调幅度1280元和1220元的35%、37%，远低于国际油价的回升幅度。

FuShaoHua analysis，At present domestic product oil pricing mechanism for international oil price smooth and delayed reaction processes are very obvious，Even if the raised 450 yuan per ton，Gasoline and diesel prices also just recovered three consecutive declines 35% of the 1280 yuan and 1220 yuan、37%，Far below the international price rebounded significantly。

　　考虑到伊朗时局日益紧张可能继续推高油价，并且今年以来炼厂亏损较为严重，特别是当前CPI持续下降，汽柴油价格上调最忌讳的CPI压力大为减轻，预计只要国际原油价格不超过定价机制设定的价格极限，后期无论是涨还是跌，国内汽柴油价格都将及时调整，不排除油价“8元时代”重现的可能性。

Considering the Iran growing tension may continue to push the high oil prices，And since this year to refinery serious losses，Especially the current CPI continue to decline，Steam diesel prices rise the most taboo CPI pressure is reduced greatly，As long as the international crude oil prices are expected to no more than pricing mechanism price set limit，Later whether to go up to still drop，Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will adjust in time，Not excluding oil“8 yuan era”Recreate the possibility of。

　　大宗产品电子商务平台金银岛分析师韩景媛告诉中国证券报记者，对基础行业而言，上调油价最直接影响的无疑是提高成本，对物流运输、仓储、快递等行业的影响最为明显。但基于油价占CPI指数的权重有限，此次上调油价对CPI的直接影响不大。

Major products e-commerce platform treasure island analysts told China stock certificate report HanJingYuan reporter，Based on businesses，The most immediate impact on the increase oil prices is undoubtedly the increase costs，Transport logistics to、storage、Express the effect of industry such as the most obvious。But based on the weight of the consumer price index (CPI) of oil prices is limited，The CPI increase oil prices to the direct impact is not big。

　　针对目前部分省份出现的成品油供应紧缩局面，陈晴认为，这一情况大多是人为的，主营单位控销主要是为了追求利润，以弥补“三连跌”时的亏损，而油价如期上调后，控销将会放开。此外，上半年国内经济增速放缓使成品油需求受到抑制，导致库存积压较多。综合来看，年内出现“油荒”的可能性不大。

According to the present in some provinces of the product supply squeeze situation，ChenQing think，The situation is mostly artificial，Main unit charged with the pursuit of profit is mainly to pin，To make up for the“Three even fall”Losses when，And the latest on oil prices，Control sales will be let go。In addition，In the first half domestic economic slowdown in demand that oil is restrained，Lead to more inventory。Comprehensive to see，Year period“Oil waste”Are not likely to。