夏心愉 高亚宁

Heart YaNing high summer yourself

　　多次“唱空”中国银行(601988,股吧)业的国际评级机构惠誉近日再度发出警示，称由于中国政府试图通过信贷投放来支持经济活动，中国银行业杠杆率可能会继续上升。

Many times“Sing empty”The bank of China(601988,Shares it)The international credit rating agency fitch ratings industry recently warned about again，The Chinese government says that the supply of credit to support tries to economic activity，China banking leverage may continue to rise。

　　惠誉对我国地方性债务存在的风险向来有警示之声。去年9月，惠誉就基于贷款激增可能导致中国银行资产质量实质下降的事实发出警告，称或将在两年内下调中国主权信用评级。此次惠誉再度关注中国银行业，仍与银行业杠杆率上升进而导致地方债风险高企的担忧密切相关。

Fitch ratings on China's local debt risks has a sound of warning。Last September，Fitch ratings based on loans could lead to the bank of China in the quality of the assets of the decline of the essence of fact warned，Say or in two years will cut China's sovereign credit rating。The fitch ratings on China's banking again，Still with the banking industry lever rate rose and lead to the local debt risk high concern closely related。

　　对于惠誉此次矛头直指的经济刺激行为，虽然国家层面并没有大张旗鼓，但地方政府投资闸门实质再开。

Fitch ratings for the spear points to economic stimulus act，Although the national level and not beating，But the local government investment gate to open essence。

　　《第一财经日报》记者整理发现，自今年6月陕西率先出台了十条“稳增长”意见，提出着力推进重大项目建设，发挥投资对稳定经济增长的关键作用后，浙江、江苏、广东、湖南和贵州等地均现地方政府投资拉动举措，地方政府推出的重大项目投资总额已接近4万亿，因此被嗅觉敏锐的市场人士冠名为“地方政府版4万亿”。

《The first financial daily》Reporter finishing found，Since June the shaanxi on the article 10“Steady growth”opinion，Puts forward and promote major projects，Play to stable economic growth of investment after the key role，zhejiang、jiangsu、guangdong、Hunan and guizhou, etc are now local government investment pull measures，The local government launched the major project total investment is close to 4 trillion，Therefore be smell the keen market personage named“The local government edition 4 trillion”。

　　眼下问题是，地方政府投资资金从何而来？申银万国证券研究所首席宏观分析师李慧勇对媒体表示，土地财政受房地产调控和拆迁成本上升的掣肘，地方融资平台还有一堆数量可观的账务未还清，为此，对于这些政府投资，地方政府不得不广开渠道。

Now the problem is，The local government investment funds come from？Shenyin &wanguo securities research institute of media LiHuiYong chief macro analysts said，The land by the real estate finance regulation and the rising cost of grip，Local financing platform and a bunch of significant quantities of accounting was not paid off，For this，For these government investment，The local government had to open channels。

　　有观点认为，通过地方政府融资平台来快速获得国有银行贷款正是便捷渠道之一，而中国地方债风险敞口或将进一步扩大。惠誉的担忧也正在于此。

With a view，Through the local government financing platform to quickly get the state-owned bank loan is one of convenient channel，And local debt risk exposure or will further expand。Fitch ratings concerns are also in the this。

　　不过，虽然惠誉的警示并非空穴来风，但业内人士认为不必多虑。某券商宏观金融分析师昨日告诉本报记者，在上一轮4万亿投资计划带来地方高负债的风险尚未全消的情况下，这一次地方政府的经济刺激会温和、保守许多，监管机构和银行要也比2009年、2010年刺激政策推动信贷扩张时更为谨慎，力图将信用可靠的地方政府项目与其他项目区分开来。

but，Although the fitch warning is not smoke，But industry insiders think manageable within。Some brokers macro financial analysts told the reporter yesterday，In a 4 trillion investment plan to bring high debt risk of place has not disarm，This time the local government economy stimulation is mild、Conservative many，Regulators and Banks will also than in 2009、Stimulus in 2010 to promote a more cautious when credit expansion，Trying to credit reliable local government projects and other project separately。

　　此外，另一国际评级机构标普早在今年6月表示，政府不会允许银行业以2009年的方式和速度扩大信贷规模，当年信贷扩张过快的后遗症至今还未完全解决。

In addition，Another international credit rating agency standard &poor earlier this year in June said，The government will not allow banking in 2009 ways and speed size of credit expansion，When credit expansion too fast to the legacy of still not resolved。