项峥

Zheng a

　　地方版“4万亿”再现，貌似“井喷”，从而引发了市场对另一个地方版的“4万亿”的焦虑。实际上，笔者认为，完全不必如此担忧，我们要辨证地看待地方版的“4万亿”投资刺激计划。

Local version“4 trillion”reproduce，seemingly“blowout”，Which has caused the market in another place version“4 trillion”anxiety。In fact，The author thinks that，Is not so worried，We want to place the guizhou.we version“4 trillion”Investment stimulus plan。

　　目前来看，当前地方版本的“4万亿”投资计划，还要受资金的约束。首先是融资的约束。虽然地方政府融资平台贷款政策出现了微调，但不太可能再出现2009年地方政府融资平台贷款迅猛增长的情形。因为2009年执行的是适度宽松货币政策，而当前执行的却是稳健货币政策。因此，尽管政策执行的力度和节奏会有预调和微调，但在总体基调仍为稳健的背景下，全年信贷规模增长应适度合理。

So far，The current version of the place“4 trillion”Investment plan，Also be the constraints of the funds。First is financing constraints。Although the local government financing platform loan policy appeared fine-tuning，But it is unlikely to occur again in 2009, the local government loan financing platform the rapid increase of the case。Because of the 2009 execution is moderate loose monetary policy，And the execution of the current is stable monetary policy。so，Despite the strength of the policy implementation and rhythm will have presetters and fine-tuning，But in the overall tone is still under the background of steady，Annual credit scale growth should be moderate and reasonable。

　　其次要受到地方财力的约束。按照现行项目投资，自有资金需要财政投入，而财政收入主要依赖于土地出让收入。虽然4月份以来全国房地产市场成交回暖，但目前还未看到房地产开发企业在购置土地面积上有积极举措。因此，“4万亿”投资计划更多需要依靠民间投资来拉动，这同时也为众多民间资金进入创造了更多的投资选择。

And then by the local financial constraints。According to the current project investment，Their own funds need financial investment，And fiscal revenue mainly depends on the land transfer income。Although the country since the April real estate market clinch a deal the thaw，But are not yet see real estate development enterprises in the purchase of land have an active measures。so，“4 trillion”Investment plan more need to rely on private investment to pull，This also for many private funds to create more investment options。

　　除了对地方版“4万亿”投资的担忧，我们还应该看到，地方重大项目投资在支持经济、稳定增长上有其特殊作用。一是短期内迅速扭转经济下滑势头。当前经济增速下滑，主要原因是经济结构主动或被动调整，产业面临转型，企业经营压力增大，外需不振和消费需求疲软，这些状况在短期内不会有太大的改变。因此，适时启动投资增长，有利于缓和经济下滑态势。

In addition to local version“4 trillion”Investment concerns，We should also see，Major project investment in place to support the economy、Stable growth has its special effect。One is the short term rapidly reversing the momentum of economic downturn。The current economic growth slowdown，The main reason is the economic structure adjustment initiative or passivity，Industry facing transformation，Enterprise operating pressure increased，With foreign demand and weak consumer demand，The situation in the short term won't have too big change。so，Timely startup investment growth，To ease economic downturn situation。

　　二是重大项目投资奠定了经济结构成功转型的基础。经济发展方式的转变和经济结构的调整，需要与之相适应的基础设施。目前来看，过去地方在基础设施建设方面迈出了一大步，但仍存在不足,需要通过地方的重大项目投资加以解决。

2 it is major project investment laid the foundation of successful transformation of the economic structure。Changing the model of economic development and the adjustment of economic structure，Need with suitable infrastructure。So far，Place the past in the infrastructure construction aspects have made an important step forward，But still inadequate,Need major projects through local investment to solve them。

　　三是重大项目投资为企业经营转型赢得时间。投资项目启动，既有导向性，引导企业加强战略性新兴产业投资，也可以增加需求，缓解部分具有良好发展前景企业的经营困难，为最终的企业转型赢得宝贵的时间。

Three major project investment is for the enterprise management transformation to win time。Investment project start，Leading both，Guide enterprises to strengthen strategic emerging industry investment，Can also increase demand，Ease with good development prospect of enterprise management difficulties，For the final enterprise transformation win valuable time。

　　四是民生项目建设需求迫切。在更加注重生活品质和环境保护的情况下，需要加大对民生项目的建设力度，比如城市排水系统、污水处理、垃圾焚埋等。

Four is the people's livelihood needs urgent project construction。In the more focus on quality of life and environmental protection，People need to increase the strength of the construction project，Like the urban drainage system、Sewage treatment、Garbage burned buried。

　　当前全球经济复苏艰难曲折，欧债危机仍有可能反复，美国失业率仍在高位，新兴经济体经济增长普遍放缓。在这种情况下，需要加快转变经济发展方式和调整经济结构，合理引导地方扩大重要基础设施建设投资，稳定经济增长，促进结构调整平稳推进。

The current global economic recovery and tribulations，The debt crisis is likely to repeat，Unemployment remains high in the United States，Emerging economies generally slow economic growth。In this case，Need to speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development and the adjustment of economic structure，Reasonable leading the local expand important infrastructure investment，Stable economic growth，Promote smooth promote structural adjustment。