分析师表示，此次上调油价对CPI影响有限

Analysts said，The impact on the cpi increase oil prices is limited

　　本报记者夏青

Our correspondent XiaQing

　　8月10日，成品油调价22个工作日时间窗口开启，三地变化率也已经满足4%的调价条件。发改委及时发布调价消息称，自8月10日零时起上调成品油价格。汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高390元和370元，折算到90号汽油和0号柴油（全国平均）每升零售价格分别提高0.29元和0.32元。上调之后，汽油除新疆外全部上7元线，柴油除呼和浩特、新疆、甘肃、黑龙江和吉林外，全部上7元线。虽然全国大部分地区油价再次迈入“7时代”，不过，分析师表示对CPI影响有限。

August 10,，Oil refiners 22 days time window open，The three places rate has also meet 4% of the refiners conditions。The national development and reform commission issued by the news that there in time，Since August 10, 00:00 raised prices of refined petroleum products。steam、Diesel prices every tons were increased by 390 yuan and 370 yuan，Convert to 90 gasoline and diesel 0 th（The national average）Every litres of retail prices were increased by 0.29 yuan and 0.32 yuan。Raised after，In addition to the gasoline in xinjiang in all 7 yuan line，Diesel except Hohhot、xinjiang、gansu、Heilongjiang and auspicious had，All 7 yuan line on。Although in most parts of the country into oil prices again“Seven times”，but，Analysts said limited impact on the cpi。

　　此次调价是在“三连跌”后的首次上调，调整较为及时。金银岛分析师表示，据以往惯例来看，成品油价格上调往往都会伴随一些滞后，主要权衡上游成本增加的正比性，以及下游终端生产、生活的接受程度，但本次调价却一改以往惯例，及时做出上调，分析认为，主要为年内的“三连跌”给予本次上调做好预先“铺垫”，市场早已积累一定上行动能，另外，近几月CPI指数的连连走低，也促使本次油价上调如期兑现。另外，就调价幅度而言，基本与此前预期相符。

There is this in“Three even fall”After the first hike，More timely adjust。Treasure island analysts said，According to the previous practice and see，Oil price rise tend with some of the lag，Main weigh the increasing cost of the upstream is，And the downstream end production、Acceptance of life，But there is this change before practice，Make timely raised，Analyzed that，Mainly for years“Three even fall”The rise in advance to do“matting”，The market had accumulated certain uplink kinetic energy，In addition，In recent months the consumer price index (cpi), a lower，Also prompted this oil prices rise as cash。In addition，Is there for amplitude，Basic and previously expected。

　　卓创资讯分析师陈晴也表示，本次调价或将较为及时，因为刚刚发布的7月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.8%，表明目前国内通胀压力不大，成品油价格上调无压力；而且，前期成品油市场连续“三连跌”，主营利润受损严重，柴油需求旺季即将到来，后期市场需要靠两大主营保供，因此需要及时上调成品油价格暴涨主营的炼油利润。

Zhuo and analysts ChenQing also said information，There will be more timely the or，Because just in July release of the consumer price index（cpi）Rose 1.8% year-on-year，Show that at present domestic inflation pressure is not big，Oil price rise no pressure；and，For the refined oil market“Three even fall”，The main profits were severely damaged，Diesel demand season is coming，Later the needs of the market by the two main for，Therefore need to raise product prices soaring mainly refinery margins。

　　对于主营炼油利润而言，卓创资讯模型显示，若此次发改委上调370-390元/吨，其相应的汽柴出厂价均会同幅度上调400元/吨，届时将减少主营的炼油利润亏损。

For the main in refinery margins，Zhuo and information model of the display，If the development and reform commission raised 370-390 yuan/ton，Its corresponding steam wood factory price range are jointly with raised 400 yuan/ton，It will reduce the main refinery margins losses。

　　金银岛分析师表示，此次成品油上调短期内对CPI影响有限。因为成品油价格上调会带动上游燃气、煤炭等其他能源价格上行，通过价格传导机制，中下游工业企业的生产成本将会上涨。但从供需关系来看，因目前国内经济不甚景气，终端需求难言旺盛，预计终端消费品的价格上行或有限，从中长期看，我国的物价水平会出现小幅上涨。但因目前，国内通胀压力缓解明显，而且国家相关部门亦会做好油价上调的补贴应对。不过，此次油价上调还是会给经济带来一些负面影响。油价上涨增加用油企业及消费者的开支，主要是对农业、林业、渔业还有交通运输业带来一定的冲击，特别是像出租、公共交通、长途运输等带来直接的成本上升压力。

Treasure island analysts said，The product oil raised the short term limited impact on the cpi。Because gas prices rise will drive the gas、Coal and other energy prices up，Through the price mechanism conduction，The costs of production in the middle and lower reaches industrial enterprises will go up。But from the supply and demand relation between，Because the current domestic economic crippled，Terminal demand unaccountable exuberant，Consumer prices are expected to end up or limited，Long run from，The price level in China will be a modest rise。But for now，Domestic inflation pressure relieve obvious，And relevant national authorities will also make oil prices rise to the subsidies。but，The oil price rise will bring some negative impact on the economy。Rising oil prices increase oil companies and consumers' spending，Is mainly to the agriculture、forestry、Fishing and transportation industry bring a certain impact，Especially like rent、Public transportation、Long distance transportation bring direct costs are rising pressure。