艾经纬

YiJingWei

　　谁会再度先行开启货币宽松之门？

Who will be the first open again the door of monetary loose？

　　本周，鉴于中国CPI数据继续下滑，外围资产市场寄希望于中国央行再推货币宽松政策；而随着希腊局势的微妙，在要不要欧洲央行继续出手援助这一问题上，德国央行正陷入孤立无援的窘境；而美联储中的鸽派官员也在敦促推出QE3。

This week，With China's CPI data continue to slide，Peripheral assets the hope that the central bank in China market then push loose monetary policy；But along with the Greek of the delicacy of the situation，In the European central bank to don't continue to make moves aid the problem，The German central bank is in isolated dilemma；And the fed officials in the doves also urged QE3 launch。

　　继7月上旬，中国人民银行、欧洲央行等全球主要央行降息之后，全球风险资产一直翘首以待美联储推出QE3。虽然8月初的议息会议再度让市场预期落空，但风险资产的本性使得其依然“贼心不死”。

The early July，The people's bank of China、The European central bank and the bank after the major global cut interest rates，Global risk assets has been so ready for the fed QE3 launch。Although early August member of the meeting again let the market expected interest ground，But the risk assets nature makes it still“ZeiXinBuSi”。

　　统计局数据显示，7月CPI同比数据从6月的2.2%如期跌至1.8%。PPI同比数字则较上月下滑0.8个百分点，至2.9%，反映总需求疲弱，导致生产资料价格明显下滑。

Bureau of statistics data shows，July CPI up data from June's 2.2% duly fell from 1.8% to。PPI figures were a year-on-year decline 0.8% last month，To 2.9%，Reflects sluggish demand total，Leads to the production material prices down。

　　鉴于中国CPI数据的继续下滑，外围资产市场寄希望于中国央行再推货币宽松政策，黄金、美欧股市、商品市场皆出现不同程度上涨。

With China's CPI data continue to slide，Peripheral assets the hope that the central bank in China market then push loose monetary policy，gold、Us and European stock markets、Commodity markets are in different degree rise。

　　但从前期中央强调加大财政政策支持经济力度来看，下半年财政政策重点在结构性减税，而货币政策的重点是提高货币政策服务实体经济的力度和效果，优化信贷结构，货币政策的大幅宽松可能性已经很低。

But from the earlier the central emphasis increasing financial policy support economic strength and see，The second half of fiscal policy focus in the structural tax cuts，And monetary policy is focused on the improvement of the monetary policy of economic strength and service entity effect，Credit structure optimization，Monetary policy loose a possibility is very low。

　　此外，7月份CPI同比增速达到年内最低，受蔬菜价格季节性回升，以及猪价拐点逐步趋近的影响，食品价格正在回升，价格改革也会给非食品价格带来一些上行压力，CPI后期大概率出现回升。

In addition，CPI growth in July to the lowest years year-on-year，Vegetable prices rebounded by seasonal，And the influence of the ZhuJia inflection point gradually approaching，Food prices are back，Price reform will also give the food prices brought some upward pressure，CPI big probability appeared late bounce back。

　　地方融资平台问题已经有段时间没有成为热点了。据报道，截至3月末，中国金融机构地方融资平台贷款余额为7.9万亿元人民币，同比降3.6%；与去年9月末的数据相比，地方政府融资平台贷款余额下降1.2万亿元人民币。

Local financing platform problem has been a time not to become a focus。According to the report，By the end of march，China's financial institutions place financing platform loan balance is 7.9 trillion yuan RMB，3.6% year-on-year drop；And at the end of September last year compared to the data，The local government financing platform outstanding balance of the loans fell 1.2 trillion yuan RMB。

　　单从数据上来看，地方政府债务的质量远没有大家想象中那么糟糕，银行业风险也在大为降低。中国建设银行(601939,股吧)董事长王洪章透露，建行涉及地方政府融资平台贷款规模约4000亿元，涉及平台900多户，总体风险可控。较之去年6月末数据，减少1800亿元，降幅为31.34%。

Only from the data perspective，The quality of the local government debt is far from everybody imagination in so bad，Banking risks are greatly reduced。China construction bank(601939,Shares it)The chairman WangHongZhang disclosed，The construction bank involved in local government financing platform the size of the loan of about 400 billion yuan，Platform involves more than 900 households，The overall risk of controllable。Compared to the end of June last year data，Reduce 180 billion yuan，Decreased by 31.34%。

　　如此一来，8月中旬的银行业中报还是值得一看的，A股市场或有机会。但笔者要提醒的是，地方政府融资平台贷款余额的下降，是不是只是表内风险向表外转移罢了。

so，In the middle of August, banking center daily news is worth a visit，The A share market or have A chance。But the author want to remind is，The local government financing platform of loans outstanding decline，Isn't just inside the watch outside the watch to risk transfer just。

　　今明两年是地方融资平台还款高峰期，虽然部分贷款余额已经被特别展期，但若是终成为烂账，那么，以其为标的的影子银行（8%的理财产品和8.9%的信托）将出现危机，进而影响到金融系统的稳定。

In the next two years is the place to financing platform reimbursement peak，Although some outstanding balance of the loans have been special extension，But if will be LanZhang，so，In the shadow of the bank for mark（8% of the financial product and 8.9% of trust）Will appear crisis，Then affects the stability of the financial system。

　　尽管QE3迟迟不出，也有很多理由不推，但不能否认，QE3一直牵动着市场极为敏感的神经。

Although QE3 has not out，And many reasons not push，But can't deny，QE3 always affects the market very sensitive nerve。

　　波士顿联储行长罗森格伦称，美联储应将重点放在购买更多抵押贷款支持债券上。他预测称，如果联储不采取新刺激措施，那么失业率将在今年年底上升至8.4%，经济增长速度则将无法超越上半年1.75%的平均值。

The Boston fed governor LuoSenGe Aaron says，The fed should focus on buying more mortgage-backed bonds。He forecast says，If the fed does not take new stimulus measures，So by the end of this year in the unemployment rate will rise from 8.4% to，Economic growth is to surpass 1.75% during the first half of the average。

　　本专栏此前提到，QE3的推出条件在于：一是美国没有通胀的担忧，但目前旱情导致美国农作物减产、石油期货价格上涨；二是美国失业率增长，但前期的非农数据并不赖；三是美国房地产市场继续低迷，但目前已初见复苏；四是不影响美元的价值，这一条甚至是最重要的，目前美元正在调整中。

This column previously mentioned，The launch is QE3 conditions：One is the American no inflation concerns，But the drought of crop in the United States、Oil futures prices；Second is the unemployment rate increase，But the non-agricultural data and bad；Three is the real estate market continues to slump，But now has started to recover；Four is not affect the value of the dollar，This one even is the most important，The us is adjusted。

　　上述四点，对于美国房地产市场尚有争议。本周，美国两大房贷巨头房利美和房地美均实现盈利，声称都不再需要美国财政部的救助资金。

The above four o 'clock，In the American housing market remains controersial。This week，The two mortgage giants fannie mae and Freddie MAC are realize the profit，Claims are no longer need the Treasury's relief fund。

　　不过房利美的首席执行官Timothy Mayopoulos说：“现在就说全国性房地产出现复苏为时过早，我们2012年下半年的结果可能没有现在这样强劲，但我们预计2012年整体财务结果将比之前几年好得多。”

But the chief executive of the room Timothy Mayopoulos said：“Say it now national real estate appear recovery premature，We in the later half of 2012 the results may not have now so strong，But we expect 2012 overall financial results will be much more than a few years before。”

　　此外，哈佛大学罗伯特·希勒教授并不认为房地产开始转暖，他称推动房价的第一驱动力“趋势”并没有显现出来，第二驱动力失业率，仍然高于8%，且大量丧失或者接近丧失抵押品赎回权房屋，掩盖了真实房屋供应量。

In addition，Harvard University professor Robert Alan shearer is not think real estate began to warmer，He says push the prices of the first driving force“trend”And no show，The second driving force the unemployment rate，Still higher than 8%，And a large loss or close to foreclosure houses，Cover up the real housing supply。

　　欧洲目前争论的焦点在于，欧洲央行是否要承担更多的救助责任，这意味着是否要再宽松。

The focus of the debate in Europe，The European central bank whether to take on more aid responsibility，This means that whether to loose again。

　　欧洲央行委员汉森8月6日表示，欧洲央行可能会在9月份就一些成员国债券购买提议展开讨论。

The European central bank of 6 August, Hansen said，The European central bank may in September on some members buy bonds offer launches the discussion。

　　但德国央行可不这么想，德国央行行长魏德曼是欧洲央行管委会中最后一个有力而独立的声音。他反对欧洲央行购买债券，但魏德曼不仅在欧洲央行被孤立，甚至跟德国政府的立场也有冲突。

But the German central bank don't think so，The German central bank governors WeiDeMan is the European central bank the ac the last strong and independent voice。He opposed the European central bank to buy bonds，But WeiDeMan not only in the European central bank is isolated，Even with the German government's position also conflict。

　　魏德曼对央行独立性的坚守，让笔者联想到1992年英镑危机中德国央行行长的表态，为了德国的利益、欧洲货币联盟的稳定，可以让意大利里拉贬值，并最终迫使英国退出货币联盟。

WeiDeMan central bank independence to stand fast，Let the author lenovo to 1992 pounds in German central bank crisis of trepidation，For the interests of Germany、The stability of the European monetary union，Can let the Italian lire devaluation，And finally forced British exit monetary union。

　　可以说，风险资产的交易员们都希望中美欧再度宽松，他们才不会考虑这对经济的长期后果呢。但对于三大央行来说，率先再宽松是有风险的，容笔者阳谋论一下，若是欧洲、中国再宽松，美联储来加息会怎么样呢？这可是釜底抽薪！

Can say，Risk assets in the us and Europe are traders to loose again，They don't consider this to the long-term consequences of the economy。But for three for the central bank，Take the lead in loose again is a risk，Let the author Yang seeks a theory，If Europe、China again loose，The federal reserve to raise interest rates？This is FuDeChouXin！

　　（作者为媒体人，微博：http://weibo.com/aijingwei）

（The author for media people，Micro bo：http://weibo.com/aijingwei）