对于通胀，货币政策要更具前瞻性，不仅仅看到年内，还要看到明年 For inflation，Monetary policy to more forward-looking，Not only see years，Will see next year

　　⊙记者 李丹丹 ○编辑 颜剑

⊙ reporter li dandan ○ YanJian editor

　　当前，“稳增长”被置于更为重要的位置，需要放松货币政策。但同时，物价对需求扩张较为敏感，扩张性政策刺激通胀的效应在增强，这决定了货币政策放松只能适度，不宜骤然放量，同时操作上需要更具前瞻性。分析人士指出，正逆回购、央票仍将是央行最常用的工具。

The current，“Steady growth”Are placed in a more important position，Need to relax monetary policy。But at the same time，The price is sensitive to demand expansion，Expansionary policies of inflation in enhancing effect stimulation，This decision to relax the monetary policy can only moderately，Shoulds not be abrupt rare，At the same time on the operation needs more forward-looking。Analysts say，Is inverse repurchase、Ticket will still is the epicenter is the most commonly used tools。

　　货币政策空间大 Monetary policy space is large

　　受外部需求不足、出口增速放缓以及投资需求疲软等因素的影响，当前我国经济呈现明显的下行压力。截至二季度，我国经济增速已连续六个季度放缓。中央也提出“把稳增长放在更加重要的位置”。同时，今年以来通胀压力显著下降，7月CPI跌破2%，这为货币政策操作预留了更大空间。

By external demand、Export growth slows down and investment demand weak factors，In China's current economic is obviously downward pressure。By the second quarter，China's economic growth has been six quarter slowdown。The central also put forward“BaWen growth in a more important position”。At the same time，Since this year inflation pressure significantly，July CPI fell below 2%，This for monetary policy obligate more large space。

　　在这样的大背景下，中国银行(601988,股吧)国际金融研究所副所长宗良认为，总体来说，为防止经济过快下滑，有必要通过进一步放松货币政策稳定经济增长。下一阶段仍会采取稳健但适度宽松的货币政策，年底前降息、降准“双降”机会依然存在，预期会出现一次降息，两次左右降准，而公开市场操作应该是比较频繁的经常性行为。

In this background，The bank of China(601988,Shares it)The international financial, deputy director of institute ZongLiang think，overall，To prevent economic decline too fast，It is necessary to further loosening monetary policy stable economic growth。The next stage will still robust but modest loose monetary policy，Cut interest rates before the end of the year、Drop must“Double down”Opportunity still exist，Expected to be presented a rate cut，Two times or so down time，And open market operation should be more frequent regular behavior。

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委认为，对于通胀，货币政策要更具前瞻性，不仅仅看到年内，还要看到明年；不仅要看到国内，还要看国外。在关注价格上涨所带来的通胀预期变化的同时，也要关注随着未来投资刺激的力度加大，也会引发通胀预期。

Industrial bank(601166,Shares it)Chief economist lu commissar think，For inflation，Monetary policy to more forward-looking，Not only see years，Will see next year；Not only to see the domestic，Look even foreign。In attention caused by price increase inflation expectations change at the same time，Also want to focus on the future of the investment incentives with intensified，Can also cause inflation expectations。

　　央行也注意到了这一潜在风险。近日召开的中国人民银行分支行行长座谈会强调，要增强政策调控的“前瞻性、针对性和有效性”，这与之前提法有所调整。

The central bank also noticed the potential risk。Held recently the people's bank of China governor emphasized those symposium，To enhance policy regulation“prospective、Pertinence and effectiveness”，This before and adjusted formulation。

　　引导信贷平稳适度增长 Guide credit moderate growth smoothly

　　而信贷方面，7月份5401亿元，新增之低着实让市场吃了一惊，但5000至6000亿元的量或许会持续至年底。据了解，央行下半年要着力引导金融机构放贷总量平稳适度增长，重在解决信贷资金供求的结构性矛盾，银行要努力提高信贷的质量而非追求数量。

And in the credit，In July 540.1 billion yuan，New low really let the market started，But the amount of 5000 to 600 billion yuan will continue to the end of may。According to understand，The second half of the central bank to guide financial institutions to moderate growth steady total loans，Emphasis on solving structural contradiction of supply and demand credit funds，Bank efforts to improve the credit quality rather than pursue quantity。

　　华创证券研究所副所长华中炜指出，从其各地调研的情况来看，上半年省一级银行均没有接到明确的信贷规模放松的政策指导，年初制定的全年信贷规模计划并未调整。如果这个情况持续，按年初制定的8万亿信贷规模来计算，下半年月均信贷量只有5000至6000亿元，信贷增速难以加快。

China and the central China securities, deputy director of institute Hui said，From the perspective of the investigation all over，The provincial bank in the first half were not received specific size of credit relaxed policy guidance，For the early size of credit plan does not adjust。If this continues，According to the size of credit for early 8 trillion to calculate，The second half of the average monthly credit amount only 5000 to 600 billion yuan，To speed up the credit growth。

　　权威人士透露，下半年要着力引导金融机构放贷总量平稳适度增长，重在解决信贷资金供求的结构性矛盾。央行日前也指出，要进一步提高货币政策的有效性，有效解决信贷资金供求结构性矛盾，切实强化金融服务实体经济的功能。

Authorities said，The second half to lead to financial institutions smooth total lending moderate growth，Emphasis on solving structural contradiction of supply and demand credit funds。The central bank has also pointed out，To further improve the effectiveness of monetary policy，Effectively solve the credit funds structural contradiction of supply and demand，To strengthen financial services to the real economy function。

　　宗良称，信贷资金供求之间的结构性矛盾由来已久。要优化信贷资源配置，加大对实体经济支持力度可从以下几个方面考虑：首先，引导贷款投向实体经济。比如加大对国家重点建设项目、战略新兴产业、煤电油运、农林水利、通讯、公共基础设施、消费和出口等的支持。

ZongLiang says，Credit funds of the contradiction between supply and demand structure has a long history。To optimize the credit allocation of resources，Increase support to economic entity from the following several aspects to consider：first，Guide to the loan economy。Such as the increase of the national key construction projects、Strategic new industry、Coal power on the one hand、Farming, forestry, water conservancy、communication、Public infrastructure、Consumption and export, support。

　　其次，加大对小微企业贷款的投放，支持民间投资的快速发展。这样既可以将银行的贷款收益稳定在一定的水平上，又能为整个经济体注入新的活力，也能改善银行经营环境。

second，To increase the small micro business loans issuance，Support the rapid development of private investment。So can the bank's loan income stable at a certain level，And the economy as a whole can inject new vitality，It can improve the bank management environment。

　　再次，小微型企业要从自身着手，优化信用等级。这样做，既能增强银行放贷的信心，也能切实缓解小型企业贷款难的问题。

again，Small miniature enterprise to from their own hands，Optimization credit rating。do，Can not only improve the Banks to lend more confidence，Can also ease to small business loans difficult question。

　　此外，严格控制对高耗能、高排放行业和产能过剩行业的贷款等。

In addition，Strict control on production、High emissions industry and in industries with excess capacity of the loan, etc。