自然灾害性事件增多，导致赔付率上升；资本市场深度调整及降息周期来临，令财险公司投资收益下滑；车险费率市场化改革及外资涉足交强险等制度变革所引发的竞争加剧，在一定程度上增加财险公司的费用率。 Natural disaster events increase，Through to rise；The capital market adjustment and depth to cut interest rates cycle coming，Make general insurance company investment returns to slide；Car insurance premium rate market reform and foreign involvement in the place and system change caused by the increasing competition，To a certain extent the fee increase general insurance company。

　　⊙记者 赵铃 ○编辑 颜剑

Reporter ZhaoLing ○ ⊙ YanJian editor

　　“与去年底相比，公司预计今年的综合成本率估计会上升1.5至2个点，明年很可能还会面临上升的压力。”日前，国内某大型财险公司内部人士向本报透露。

“Compared with the end of，The company this year is expected to total cost estimate rate would rise 1.5 to 2 points，Next year is likely will face a rise of pressure。”a，A domestic large general insurance company insiders revealed to our newspaper。

　　综合成本率包括赔付率和费用率，是业界用来衡量财险业盈利强弱的主要标准。综合成本率上升，就意味着这家财险公司的承保利润率出现了下滑。

The comprehensive cost rate including through and fee，The industry is used to measure the general insurance industry profit of the strength of the main standard。The comprehensive cost rate goes up，Means that the general insurance company accept insurance profit margins have declined。

　　或许，各财险公司即将交出的半年报成绩单还不至于难看。记者从相关渠道了解到，今年上半年，国内财险业的综合成本率出现了明显分化趋势——因为准备金的有利释放，几大财险巨头综合成本率基本上能够与去年同期持平，而其他财险公司则可能有所上升。

perhaps，The general insurance company will hand over half annals of the transcript is not ugly。Reporters from related learn about，In the first half of this year，The domestic industry of the comprehensive cost rate property there is an obvious-because of the differentiation tendency reserve favorable release，A few big general insurance giant comprehensive cost rate basically can with the same period last year unchanged，And other general insurance company may be increased。

　　然而到了下半年，整个财险行业将迎来诸多变数。沪上一家财险公司负责人直言，今年承保利润率下滑，可能不仅仅是一家财险公司的问题。“内外部环境出现的微妙变化，或将使持续了三年的财险业盈利高景气周期，在今年下半年开始逐步画上阶段性句号。”

In the second half, however，The general insurance industry will have many variables。Shanghai a general insurance company responsible the truth，This year falling margins accept insurance，Might not be a general insurance company。“The inner and outer environment appears the subtle changes，Or will that lasted three years of general insurance industry high earnings boom cycle，In the second half of this year, began by painting a stage。”

　　业内人士口中所忧虑的内外部环境变化，主要是指：自然灾害性事件增多，导致赔付率上升；资本市场深度调整及降息周期来临，令财险公司投资收益下滑；此外，车险费率市场化改革及外资涉足交强险等制度变革所引发的竞争加剧，会在一定程度上增加财险公司的费用率。

Industry insiders mouth of internal and external environment change worries，Is mainly refers to：Natural disaster events increase，Through to rise；The capital market adjustment and depth to cut interest rates cycle coming，Make general insurance company investment returns to slide；In addition，Car insurance premium rate market reform and foreign involvement in the place and system change caused by the increasing competition，In a certain extent will increase the property fee to the company。

　　一家受访的财险公司高管告诉记者，“今年的综合成本率肯定是会上升的，因为今年自然灾害多于去年，估计赔付率会增加1个点左右。另外，费用率也在小幅增加，虽然在监管高压下，各家财险公司都下调了规模指标，但市场竞争仍然暗流涌动，贴费现象依然存在。”

A general insurance company executives interviewed told reporters，“This year's comprehensive cost rate is certainly will rise，Because natural disasters this year than last year，Estimates will increase a point through to the left。In addition，Fee increase in small also，Although in supervision under high pressure，His general insurance companies have cut scale index，But the market competition is still the undercurrent，TieFei phenomenon still exists。”

　　而自7月开始接连发生的北京暴雨、长三角台风等自然灾害，更令业内人士感慨，今年下半年影响财险公司综合成本率的最大不确定性因素将可能来自“自然灾害”。

And since July for the heavy rain occurred in Beijing、Long triangle typhoon natural disasters，More to industry insiders regrets，The second half of this year general insurance company the comprehensive cost rate affect the biggest uncertainty factors will may come from“Natural disasters”。

　　一份来自华创证券的最新调研显示，今年上半年，车险的综合成率上升了约两个点左右，在财险公司承保利润中的贡献度有所下降；相较之下，农业保险、工程险等非车险产品的利润贡献度开始提升。

A from China and the latest research shows securities，In the first half of this year，Car insurance rate to rise by about comprehensive into two PM，In general insurance company accept insurance of profit contribution fell；In contrast，Agricultural insurance、Engineering damages the car insurance product profit contribution began to ascend。

　　恰恰是这样的险种利润结构调整，令财险公司下半年更要“看天吃饭”。

Just is such danger is planted profit structure adjustment，Make general insurance company more to the second half“See day to eat”。

　　在7月北京暴雨所产生的近10亿元估损金额（截至7月底的统计数据）中，车险估损金额占了近四成（3.9亿元），而企财险、工程险、农业险等非车险估损金额占了六成。“我们现在担心的是，一旦下半年旱涝灾情再次发生，农业险、工程险的赔付率将明显上升。”一家财险公司相关负责人告诉记者。

In July, Beijing heavy rains generated nearly 1 billion yuan assessment of loss amount（By the end of July, statistical data）in，Car insurance assessment of loss amount accounted for nearly forty percent（$390 million），And enterprises、Project risks、Agricultural risk assessment of loss of car insurance amount is about sixty percent。“We now worry about is，Once the flood disaster happened again in the second half，Agricultural risks、The project will be significantly increased risk through。”A general insurance company responsible told reporters。

　　考虑到今年以来农业险、工程险对承保利润的贡献度有所提高，自然灾害对财险业整体承保利润的影响不容小觑。而随着近年来财险覆盖面的拓宽，特别是农业险覆盖面的不断拓展，灾害气候成为财险业日益需要重点关注的影响因素。

Consider this year since agricultural risks、Project risks underwriting profit contribution to improve，Natural disasters on general insurance industry overall underwriting profit effect of acceptance。But in recent years, with the development of general insurance coverage，Especially the constant expansion of agricultural insurance coverage，Climate disasters become increasingly need to focus on general insurance industry influence factors。